Predict the Number of Conference Wins

I probably shouldn't do this with the UTPA game in my memory, but here goes. I don't foresee any wins against the top four teams, GU, SCU, SMC, and BYU. I think maybe one road win over the other four teams, and at least one home loss. I see the range between 2 and 4 wins. I'll be optimistic and take 4 wins.

5-11

Wins at Pepperdine and at home against Saint Mary's, USF, Pepperdine, and USD.

Happy New Year!

This is an intriguing question... had you asked me prior to the UTPA game, I would have been much more confident--that game showed that we still are way too fragile if things arent going well or we get knocked off our primary game plan...

I will optimistically predict the following:
Home wins: USF, Pepp, LMU, USD
Road wins: Pepp, USD

That would be a 6-10 record, and enough to keep us out of the Wednesday play-in game.

If we play well (Bradley, UNLV), I think we can sneak out another home win (SCU? SMC?) and another road win or 2 (LMU? USF?), but any more performances like UTPA or MSU will be a loss regardless of opponent. So, I could see us finishing as high as 8-8, or as low as 3-13, 2-12. The opening 3-game WCC road trip will go a long way towards determining our seeding, as USD, LMU & Pepp (and USF) are the teams I think we are jockeying for position with.

Instead of predicting wins/losses, I'll just predict the final order of finish in this year's WCC race (RPIs are from RealTimeRPI):

Gonzaga
Record: 13-1
RPI: 8
Best wins: vs. Oklahoma in Florida, at Oklahoma State
Loss: vs. Illinois
You know the Zags have rolled in nonconference play when their only loss came against Illinois, which is ranked 11th. ... Kelly Olynyk, a 7-foot junior who redshirted last season, leads the Zags in scoring at 15.7 points per game and the WCC in field-goal percentage (67). Senior Elias Harris is averaging 14.9 points and 7.2 boards per game. ... The sophomore backcourt of Kevin Pangos (12.4 ppg) and Gary Bell Jr. (10.4 ppg) is solid.

St. Mary's
Record: 11-3
RPI: 78
Best wins: at Utah State, vs. Harvard
Worst loss: vs. Pacific in Anaheim
Point guard Matthew Dellavedova, last season's WCC Player of the Year, leads the conference in assists (6.6 per game), is second in free-throw percentage (91.7) and fifth in scoring (17.4 ppg). ... Dellavedova has endured some tough shooting games (most glaring example: 1-for-13 in the Gaels' 70-69 win over Harvard on Monday). ... Look for Randy Bennett to return guard Stephen Holt to the starting lineup. He missed the first four games of December with a knee injury and came off the bench in the last four. ... The Gaels lead the WCC in three-point field-goal percentage - 40.8.

BYU
Record: 10-4
RPI: 33
Best wins: vs. Cal State Northridge, at Weber State
Worst loss: vs. Florida State in New York
The Cougars don't have a signature victory or a truly bad loss. ... Sophomore guard Tyler Haws has returned from a two-year mission to lead the conference in free-throw percentage (94.4) and rank second in scoring (20.9 ppg). He poured in 42 points - tops by any Division I player this season - in a 97-71 rout of Virginia Tech on Saturday. ... Senior forward Brandon Davies is third in the conference in scoring (20.1 ppg) and third in rebounding (7.9 per game).

Santa Clara
Record: 11-3
RPI: 73
Best wins: at Saint Louis, at Pacific
Worst loss: vs. UCSB
The Broncos didn't win a conference game last season, but they should finish above .500 in WCC play this season. ... Santa Clara has three players scoring at least 14 points per game: senior guard Kevin Foster (18.9), senior forward Marc Trasolini (15.9) and junior guard Evan Roquemore (14). ... Trasolini, who missed last season with a torn ACL, leads the Broncos in rebounding at 7.6 per game. ... The Broncos are averaging plus-5.9 in turnover margin - by far the best mark in the conference.

USF
Record: 7-6
RPI: 154
Best wins: vs. Montana, vs. St. John's
Worst loss: vs. Holy Cross
After a season-opening loss to Stanford, the Dons won five in a row. They then proceeded to lose five straight. ... Junior forward Cole Dickerson is averaging a double-double (15.4 ppg, 11.9 rpg). He leads the conference in rebounding. ... Junior swingman De'End Parker leads the conference in three-point field-goal percentage (52.6). ... Junior point guard Cody Doolin is third in the conference in assists (6.2 per game). ... The Dons have no seniors on their roster.

Pepperdine
Record: 8-5
RPI: 188
Best wins: vs. Washington State, vs. UC Irvine
Worst loss: at Utah Valley
The Waves lead the conference in field-goal-percentage defense (39.4) and are second in scoring defense (63.5 ppg). ... They're last in turnover margin (minus-3.3). ... Freshman Stacy Davis is averaging 11.3 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. ... Senior guard Lorne Jackson leads Pepperdine in scoring at 14.8 points per game. He redshirted last season after tearing his ACL.

Loyola Marymount
Record: 7-6
RPI: 221
Best wins: at CSU Bakersfield, at Northern Arizona
Worst loss: vs. Long Beach State
Point guard Anthony Ireland leads the conference in scoring at 21.3 ppg. The 5-foot-10 junior also pulls down 6.2 boards per game. ... Senior forward Ashley Hamilton averages 14.8 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. ... Two of the Lions' seven wins have come against Cal State Bakersfield.

San Diego
Record: 7-8
RPI: 254
Best wins: vs. Tulane, at Southern Utah
Worst loss: vs. James Madison in Las Vegas
The Toreros were the conference's most improved team at the end of last season, and they'll need considerable improvement again this season. ... Sophomore guard Johnny Dee (15.2 ppg) is the only two-time WCC Player of the Week this season. He's hitting 89.7 percent from the line. ... The Toreros are last in the conference in field-goal-percentage defense - 43.8.

Portland
Record: 7-8
RPI: 240
Best wins: vs. North Florida, vs. Bradley in Las Vegas
Worst loss: vs. Texas-Pan American
UP has the lowest field-goal percentage (42) and three-point percentage (30) in the WCC. ... Junior Ryan Nicholas is second in the conference in rebounding (9.7 per game) and is averaging 13.7 points per game. ... The Pilots will know where they stand after playing their first three conference games in Southern California before their home opener against Gonzaga on Jan. 17.

Programming note:

Probably the best early WCC season matchup is this evening when USF buses to Santa Clara for a bitter rivalry game.

ESPNU @ 7 pm (PST)

Here's how our friend Zack Farmer from Examiner.com sees the WCC race:

Now that the preseason is over and done, it's time to see where the West Coast Conference teams rank against each other.

Saint Mary's ended last season on top of the WCC Power Rankings but that is clearly going to change. How high does Santa Clara go? Does LMU and/or San Diego fall into the bottom three?

Here is Week 1 on the WCC Power Rankings:

1. Gonzaga (13-1), RPI: 7, SOS: 12
Was there any doubt here? Gonzaga is not only by far the best team in the WCC but also one of the best teams in the country. They are deep, talented, big, strong, and can shoot the lights out. What makes them so difficult from a matchup standpoint is the foursome of Elias Harris, Kelly Olynyk, Sam Dower, and Przemek Karnowski.

2. BYU (10-4), RPI: 33, SOS: 27
BYU played a difficult schedule but was unable to get over the hump. Loss to Baylor. Loss to Notre Dame. Then they finally broke through with a win over Virginia Tech. It showed growth for the Cougars and continued to show how much they rely on Tyler Haws and Brandon Davies, both of whom average better than 20 per game.

3. Santa Clara (11-3), RPI: 75, SOS: 138
Santa Clara is the only team in the country with three players who have scored 1,000 or more points in their careers (Kevin Foster, Marc Trasolini, Evan Roquemore). They are playing well heading into conference play but remember, they were playing well last year at this time and did not win a single conference game. That likely won't happen this time around.

4. Saint Mary's (11-3), RPI: 100, SOS: 239
The Gaels do not look like the defending champion of the WCC. They have gone through some rough patches and are still trying to find a consistency on both the offensive and defensive end. Stephen Holt has played three games since returning from a bruised bone in his left knee and is likely to be reinserted into the starting lineup on Saturday.

5. San Francisco (7-6), RPI: 171, SOS: 110
San Francisco has had a bit of a roller coaster month of December. They came in strong and were sitting at 5-1 before dropping five straight. The Dons are young but have a ton of talent. They need their role players, Tao Xu and Tim Derksen among others, to step up. The Diamond Head Classic might have been that wake-up call.

6. Pepperdine (8-5), RPI: 188, SOS: 302
Stacy Davis and Moriba DeFreitas have helped transform the frontcourt for Pepperdine into a solid and dependable one. While there is still much to improve, their competitiveness is noticeable. Pairing this with the leadership of Lorne Jackson, Pepperdine has been an early surprise. If they could get more offense, this team could be set.

7. Loyola Marymount (7-6), RPI: 221, SOS: 295
The Lions have become extremely reliant on two players: Anthony Ireland and Ashley Hamilton. Depth has been a glaring concern for LMU. They have four players averaging 31 or more minutes per game, are still waiting for CJ Blackwell to round into form, and were missing Godwin Okonji for their losses to Saint Louis and Ole Miss.

8. San Diego 7-8, RPI: 255, SOS: 226
The Toreros have been about as inconsistent as any team in the league and much of that has had to do with the frontcourt. Chris Manresa was out for seven games, a stretch where San Diego went 2-5. If the frontcourt plays well, it frees up the perimeter for Johnny Dee and Chris Anderson to do what they do.

9. Portland 7-8, RPI: 241, SOS: 187
Portland has improved its shooting from a year ago but that doesn't mean it is "good" yet. They have only three players shooting better than 45 percent and they average a combined 16.7 points. Ryan Nicholas has simply not gotten much help and his shooting percentage shows it (41.9 percent).

6, I'm not sure where they will come from but that's how many we'll have.

It is interesting how the schedule worked out this year... our first 3 WCC games are on the road, against 3 (of the 4) teams that should be the "easiest" road wins. In my recollection, the Pilots have generally fared better (relatively speaking) at both USD and Pepp... our first 2 games.

If you had to rank the WCC road games from hardest to least difficult, I would rank @USD as the least difficult... hopefully the guys are fired up after the debacle last weekend, and are ready to play tomorrow night and take advantage of the chance to start 1-0.

I think we will have a good gauge of ourselves by this Sunday morning. If we go 2-0 this weekend, that bodes well... but if we go 0-2, ugh.....

just as long as we don't play on Wednesday in Vegas.

Woodless! wrote:just as long as we don't play on Wednesday in Vegas.

I think you meant to post this in the state of the program thread

I really thought that we'd be much improved this year, and still think we will be. I just don't get the whole Dr. Jekyll/Mr Hyde thing this team has. I vote for 6 wins as well with the team playing much better at the end of year. I want to watch at least 2 games in Vegas this year.

blacksheep wrote: I want to watch at least 2 games in Vegas this year.

Let's clarify that to Thursday & Friday games... Heck, Friday & Saturday?!

PilotNut wrote:

blacksheep wrote: I want to watch at least 2 games in Vegas this year.

Let's clarify that to Thursday & Friday games... Heck, Friday & Saturday?!

DoubleDipper wrote:Programming note:
Probably the best early WCC season matchup is this evening when USF buses to Santa Clara for a bitter rivalry game.
ESPNU @ 7 pm (PST)

I'd forgotten how much I dislike USF's coach....it was good to see Kerry Keating and Santa Clara break their 17 game WCC losing streak.

Based upon tonight's game, UP won't beat either team this year unless the Pilots can make buckets at a good rate. USF throws up a lot of shots, but SCU just runs and guns early in the shot clock. Tonight they put up 69 shots....it doesn't really matter if you shoot at 40% when that many go up.

UP is more disciplined by far than either team, but again, UP has to make it's baskets to have a chance.

I'd forgotten how much I dislike USF's coach....it was good to see Kerry Keating and Santa Clara break their 17 game WCC losing streak.

One thing my brother (my roommate and Gonzaga alum) and I can agree on when it comes to WCC basketball is that Rex Walter is by far the easiest person in all the WCC to dislike.

Walter's constant swearing (and it is non-stop) and nagging of his players is unreal... He is by far my least favorite coach in college basketball.

USF seems to have experienced "above average" player turnover under Coach Walters... coincidence?

6 if we can pick up road wins. Otherwise...maybe only 4. I feel like we should win a couple road games, but so far that hasn't proved true. Neutral court win over Bradley was decent though.

Anywhere between 2-10 and 4-8, so I'll say say 3-9. I just don't see it with this group. Reveno really needs to upgrade the caliber of basketball players over the next 2-3 recrutiing years. There are so many weaknesses and needs its hard to know where to start.

I know some of you may not like this assessment, but I'm just being honest and calling it like I see it.

My "optimistic" pick of 4 conference wins has been met. Meeting the prediction of 6 wins that some PNers cough*PilotNut*cough made is still doable, but I'd not lay much money on it. Here's to getting to 5 on Saturday, which is a number I don't think anyone picked.

up7587 wrote:My "optimistic" pick of 4 conference wins has been met. Meeting the prediction of 6 wins that some PNers cough*PilotNut*cough made is still doable, but I'd not lay much money on it. Here's to getting to 5 on Saturday, which is a number I don't think anyone picked.

A wise man told me at the beginning of the year that if Nicholas was our leading scorer, we weren't going to win many games. Well, that's what happened. Nicholas is currently leading the team with 13.