The next 2 games

We have Pepperdine (Thurs 2/1, 7:00pm) and LMU (Sat 2/3, 1:00pm) visiting the Chiles Center this week--2 games that will have a significant effect on our placement in the final standings.  I hope the students can turn out in numbers like they did for GU--one could argue that these games are more important.  It is time for the Pilots to show some swagger and move up the standings ladder.  Coach Cantu talks about going 5-1 against the lower tier teams... we already have losses against USF and SCU (one of those 2 will likely not be in the bottom 4), so we need to run the table vs. Pepp & LMU to get that done.

If we win both games, we sit at 4 conference wins and hold the tie breaker vs. LMU, and would carry some momentum into the game at USF on February 8th.  Lose these games, and, well, we wont go there.  Obviously Pepperdine is searching for wins, too, and they will come in thinking this is a winnable game for them.  I think we will learn quite a bit about this team this week.

Note the 1:00pm tip on Saturday.

I could not agree more, Pilotnut! These games are must-wins for me to feel satisfied with the progress we have made this season. I have seen too many Pilot teams trip up at home against the bottom of the WCC even when we were good. We cannot overlook either team (especially Pepperdine because we have weird voodoo with them).

SouthCarolinaPilot wrote:We cannot overlook either team (especially Pepperdine because we have weird voodoo with them).

Actually, we've had a lot of success (relatively speaking) against Pepperdine over the past few years:
2016-17: 1 win over PU (out of 2 total WCC wins)
2015-16: 2 wins over PU (out of 6)
2014-15: 1 win over PU (out of 7)
2013-14: 1 win over PU (out of 7)
2012-13: 0 wins over PU (out of 4)
2011-12: 1 win over PU (out of 3)
TOTAL: 6 out of 29

That's an average of 1 win over PU per year, over the past six years. Over that span, we've averaged 4.8 total WCC wins/year, which means that wins over PU make up just over 20% of our total conference wins. (If we beat everyone evenly, we'd get 11% of our wins against each opponent.)

The only WCC opponent we've had more success against is LMU:
16-17: 0 wins
15-16: 2 wins
14-15: 1 win
13-14: 2 wins
12-13: 2 wins
11-12: 0 wins
TOTAL: 7 out of 29

Over the past six years, 13 of our 29 conference victories have come against this week's opponents. Add in this year's results to-date, and that moves to 14 out of 31 total conference victories. That's 45% of our conference wins coming against LMU and Pepperdine since 2011-12.

Just for "fun" (or whatever the opposite of fun is), here's the complete breakdown of our 31 conference victories (regular season only) since the 2011-12 season:

LMU: 8
PU: 6
SCU: 5
UoP: 4
USD: 3
USF: 2
BYU: 2
GU: 1
SMC: 0

I guess the voodoo was in my head. Anyone care to breakdown our home victories over the bottom 5 WCC teams vs losses in that timespan?

Maybe it’s just one or two losses to the Waves that stand out in my mind over the years and made me think it was a trend. Regardless, I stand corrected. Thanks.

Statistics aside...

I would like to see Josh and Diabate get involved in the games right away. It seems like the Pilots have a better chance of winning if they score or rebound well early on.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                 
We know Phil's going to get his rebounds and blocks. The freshman guards alternate scoring points.The bench especially lately with Tyson& M. Porter have provide a spark.
                                                                                                                                                               
But, when Josh and Diabate don't have an impact on the game its an uphill battle

All reports indicate the Pilots just completed three "great" days of practice....just have to hope it carries over.

The early line has UP favored by 4.5 over the Waves.

I gotta say, I do prefer the separate game threads rather than one giant one for the whole season.

Go Pilots!

Dean Murdoch wrote:I gotta say, I do prefer the separate game threads rather than one giant one for the whole season.

Well, you and others were always very good at starting those threads, but I think there was a general lack of excitement and more a sense of survival at the beginning of this season.

But it's not too late, and as this thread is a good beginning, let's add to it a little....

The Waves (4-18, 1-9 WCC) were picked to finish seventh by the WCC coaches, but a number of injuries have hit PU pretty hard, including the loss of leading scorer Kameron Edwards for a month due to a concussion. But now that Edwards is back and has been working himself into to game-shape over the last four games, averaging 15.5 ppg, the Waves are feeling pretty good about their chances the rest of the season.  

We all remember how the freshman guard from USF torched the Pilots for 26 points, and now in addition to Edwards, the Pilots will face Colbey Ross, the leading WCC freshman scorer (14.6) and leader in assists (5.5).

Last year with an almost entirely different team, the Pilots beat the Waves on opening weekend after also beating UOP, but then lost four weeks later in Malibu.

This game is not on TV, but it will be streamed on TheW.tv.

And finally, the Waves head coach, Marty Wilson, a PU graduate, is a good guy and a good coach, but there have been some rumblings of discontent about the Waves record in his seventh season.

DoubleDipper wrote:And finally, the Waves head coach, Marty Wilson, a PU graduate, is a good guy and a good coach, but there have been some rumblings of discontent about the Waves record in his seventh season.

Yes, I expect the upcoming games against other bottom half teams to be intense as all are striving to get off the bottom of the table or stay out of the bottom four. Lots of fans (well, a few dedicated ones) are unhappy in Malibu and Los Angeles. Their coaches don't have the new guy ticket Coach Porter still has.

up7587 wrote:

DoubleDipper wrote:And finally, the Waves head coach, Marty Wilson, a PU graduate, is a good guy and a good coach, but there have been some rumblings of discontent about the Waves record in his seventh season.

Yes, I expect the upcoming games against other bottom half teams to be intense as all are striving to get off the bottom of the table or stay out of the bottom four.  Lots of fans (well, a few dedicated ones) are unhappy in Malibu and Los Angeles.  Their coaches don't have the new guy ticket Coach Porter still has.

Continuing on with that topic. Wilson's time in Malibu is pretty similar to Reveno's here. Some bad first seasons, climb up to 5th, two 18-win seasons in a row with 4th-place finishes, and back to the bottom. Perhaps the only reason we did better during our little run is that BYU was not in the conference at that point (I almost miss the 8-team league). I have to feel for Wilson and the Waves in all honesty.

I also agree regarding the game threads, but DD probably hit the nail on the head there.

LMU's Batemon scored 28 tonight in 37 minutes against BYU. A 6'-1" G, he looked dangerous in the first game down there, with 18 points. I predict another box and one defense.

I don't know what Coach Dunlap is doing with his roster. Two of the starters against UP two weeks ago did not see the floor against BYU. Three guys started that did not start two weeks ago. Two weeks ago he played 11 guys, and 9 got 10 or more minutes. Tonight, he played 8 guys, and only 7 got significant minutes. They should be tired on Saturday afternoon.

Jumping back to the PU game, it was almost like whack-a-mole for the Pilots last night.  They did a GREAT job containing Edwards and super-frosh, Ross (14 points under their combined average), but Cooper, Berhow, and Hellums combined for a combined 18 points above their average.

It was a fun/exciting game to watch, and except for the beginning of the second half it was well played by both teams.  

Nice to see those free-throws drop. 

Not sure of JoJo's status for tomorrow against LMU after sustaining what appeared to be a deep thigh/hip bruise with just few minutes to go in the game.   JoJo had terrible shooting night, but he helped in other ways and did not make freshman mistakes.

Good to see Marcus bringing the ball down the court instead of Malcolm when JoJo was not in the game....

Was JoJo's injury a bruise, and not a cramp?  Time to implement Operation TB12.

I was surprised to see Hellums was 3-5 from 3Pt range.  I thought he never missed.  Cooper has been very streaky.  In WCC games, he's had 6 games with 15 or more points, and 3 with less than 10 points.  Berhow has been similarly inconsistent.  That was his 4th double digit conf. game, but he's also had 4 games with 5 or fewer points.  The Pilot's commitment to defense, and trying to shut down certain players, has been good to see.

BTW, that was Edwards' 5th game back from an injury, and in the 3 prior games, he put up 18, 16 and 19 points. Pilots held him to 7.

up7587 wrote:Was JoJo's injury a bruise, and not a cramp?  Time to implement Operation TB12..

Not really interested in all that total body fitness stuff, might pick up Brady's cookbook though.

I checked, JoJo had a "charlie horse!" He's very sore but should be fine for the LMU game.... the team will need him against LMU's  expected press.

Regarding LMU's different line-up last night, I think it was more about their different line-up against the Pilots two weeks ago.  They started super-small at the last moment two weeks ago in an attempt to throw the Pilots off, but it backfired on them!

I think we can expect them to go big again tomorrow afternoon...

Great to see Walker back after the Charlie horse on Thursday.

Tyson though... clearly player of the game and most improved this year. It is great seeing him contribute on both ends of the floor and in the locker room.

2 for 2 this weekend was big... and while blowouts are nice, its good to see us tough out some gritty physical wins.

We hold the tiebreaker over LMU, so our win vs. USD is still big, seeding wise.

At USF next... Let's keep this streak going!

DoubleDipper wrote:Regarding LMU's different line-up last night, I think it was more about their different line-up against the Pilots two weeks ago.  They started super-small at the last moment two weeks ago in an attempt to throw the Pilots off, but it backfired on them!

I think we can expect them to go big again tomorrow afternoon...

LMU used the same starters, and the same eight players, in about the same number of minutes each, today as they did against BYU Thursday when they led pretty much the whole way. Batemon got 28 on BYU, and 11 (6 from the FT line) today. Great defense by Walker.

Congrats to Marcus making the clutch FTs two games a row. Diabate only got 5 points, but I'm not sure if it was the LMU defense, or if the game plan didn't call for getting him shots. I thought he could take advantage whenever their 7 footer was not in. Nice job by Franklin to chip in 12 points off the bench when Josh was not hitting.

Two road games at USF and UOP with a chance to get that predicted fifth conference victory, before coming home again for SCU and SMC in two weeks. Need to avenge that 2 point loss in Santa Clara, but that's for a future thread.

NoPoNeighbor wrote:Over the past six years, 13 of our 29 conference victories have come against this week's opponents. Add in this year's results to-date, and that moves to 14 out of 31 total conference victories. That's 45% of our conference wins coming against LMU and Pepperdine since 2011-12.

Updated numbers: Going back to the start of the '11-'12 season, we've now won 33 WCC games. 16 of those, or 48.5%, have been against LMU and Pepperdine.

KenPom has LMU at 219, and UP at 253. USF and UOP are at 156 and 158.
RPI has LMU at 286, and UP at 228. USF and UOP are at 166 and 143.

Guess KenPom really loves LMU's USF and BYU victories, more than their two losses to UP.

up7587 wrote:Batemon got 28 on BYU, and 11 (6 from the FT line) today.  Great defense by Walker.

Had a nice talk with JoJo after the game, and we talked about how much his defense has improved over the course of the season and how it has been his emphasis in practice.

Of course he wouldn't or couldn't concede that his offensive numbers may have suffered recently because he's working so much harder on his defense during games, but he admitted "it's possible."

His parents are doing fine and were not as affected as some by the hurricane. He loved the video of the school kids in Puerto Rico running around in pure joy after the electricity finally came on at their school after 112 days.  And finally, he'd really like an authentic Puerto Rican meal again...it's been almost eight months. So if anyone on this forum cooks authentic Puerto Rican dishes, invite him over....yes, it's legal to do so, you just cannot take him out to a restaurant and buy him a meal.