RPI for 2008

I have noticed an effect over the years that does seem to correlate with Oregon weather.

I have noticed times when opponents from down south show up wearing extra layers of clothing and gloves while UP players are in short sleeves. I don't think a team that has had more than a player or two wearing gloves has ever won a game here. They are just too concerned about comfort to concentrate on the game.

I just posted a new RPI report for games through yesterday, November 5, on the BigSoccer RPI thread. You can use the following link to access the full report with the breakdown including the three elements of the RPI: http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=650592

(In an interesting quirk, although Kennesaw State is at #82 on the list, on the unadjusted RPI list (i.e., no adjustments for good wins/ties and no penalties for bad losses/ties), it's at #71, which means that we get bonus points for our win over Kennesaw State since it's in the top 80 of the unadjusted RPI.)

Here are the top 89:

1 North Carolina U 0.724163
2 UCLA 0.721805
3 Stanford 0.720671
4 Portland U 0.695941
5 Notre Dame 0.693908
6 Florida State 0.688609
7 Florida U 0.679495
8 Boston College 0.671433
9 Virginia U 0.651986
10 Penn State 0.644137
11 Texas A&M 0.643357
12 Duke 0.642806
13 Oklahoma State 0.642788
14 USC 0.638812
15 Colorado U 0.637365
16 Washington U 0.631688
17 Texas U 0.630367
18 Wake Forest 0.626212
19 BYU 0.625010
20 Long Beach State 0.622257
21 Wisconsin Milwaukee 0.618993
22 Missouri U 0.613784
23 UCF 0.612474
24 Minnesota U 0.611213
25 San Diego U 0.610057
26 Princeton 0.608580
27 Virginia Tech 0.607614
28 Illinois U 0.607520
29 Miami FL 0.606714
30 Kansas U 0.603457
31 West Virginia U 0.601724
32 Rutgers 0.601305
33 LSU 0.598401
34 Denver 0.598253
35 Charlotte 0.597153
36 Michigan State 0.595967
37 William and Mary 0.594649
38 Harvard 0.593851
39 Georgia U 0.593785
40 Washington State 0.591450
41 South Carolina U 0.591022
42 James Madison 0.590821
43 California U 0.590517
44 Marquette 0.589827
45 Arizona State 0.587967
46 East Carolina 0.585900
47 Columbia 0.585675
48 TCU 0.584473
49 UNC Greensboro 0.583570
50 Auburn 0.583483
51 Oregon U 0.582217
52 Purdue 0.581363
53 Loyola Marymount 0.580861
54 Dayton 0.580766
55 Hofstra 0.580693
56 Boston U 0.579580
57 Ohio State 0.578267
58 Northwestern U 0.577663
59 Old Dominion 0.575982
60 Colorado College 0.573967
61 Connecticut U 0.571629
62 Arizona U 0.571174
63 UC Santa Barbara 0.569796
64 Western Kentucky 0.569319
65 Memphis 0.567301
66 Utah U 0.565799
67 New Mexico U 0.565742
68 Louisville 0.565618
69 UNC Wilmington 0.565386
70 Georgetown 0.562376
71 Fairfield 0.556323
72 Brown 0.554399
73 Nebraska U 0.552606
74 Rice 0.552257
75 St Johns 0.552140
76 Toledo 0.551257
77 Yale 0.551152
78 Long Island 0.550313
79 Cincinnati 0.550254
80 UNLV 0.549903
81 Saint Louis 0.549246
82 Kennesaw State 0.549196
83 Tennessee U 0.547336
84 Davidson 0.546832
85 Santa Clara 0.545288
86 Dartmouth 0.542683
87 Villanova 0.540454
88 Belmont 0.539331
89 Fordham 0.538701

UPSF thanks for the update... I was wondering the effect of a few of the games yesterday, thanks again.

Yeah, thanks for the update. It really makes it interesting to see how the RPI changes over just a few games.

Root for an ASU Upset of UW tonight correct? Or a tie at the very least?

I've been so busy gathering game results that I forgot to post this earlier today. Here are the RPIs including games through yesterday (Thursday). I hate to root against UW, so I'm sending my energy towards Pullman right now and towards Eugene later. As an aside, it looks like the Oregon game may have internet video coverage.

1 North Carolina U 0.724560
2 UCLA 0.720930
3 Stanford 0.720049
4 Portland U 0.696434
5 Notre Dame 0.694118
6 Florida State 0.688843
7 Florida U 0.679021
8 Boston College 0.671528
9 Virginia U 0.652107
10 Penn State 0.643511
11 Texas A&M 0.643237
12 Duke 0.642900
13 Oklahoma State 0.641974
14 USC 0.638256
15 Colorado U 0.636752
16 Washington U 0.631180
17 BYU 0.630306
18 Texas U 0.629810
19 Wake Forest 0.626823
20 Long Beach State 0.625236
21 Wisconsin Milwaukee 0.617020
22 Minnesota U 0.616679
23 Missouri U 0.613088
24 UCF 0.611636
25 Illinois U 0.609722
26 San Diego U 0.608723
27 Princeton 0.608589
28 Virginia Tech 0.607594
29 Miami FL 0.606847
30 Kansas U 0.603633
31 West Virginia U 0.601664
32 Rutgers 0.600900
33 LSU 0.597989
34 Denver 0.597413
35 Charlotte 0.595926
36 William and Mary 0.595299
37 Georgia U 0.595260
38 Michigan State 0.594988
39 Harvard 0.594250
40 Washington State 0.591945
41 James Madison 0.591084
42 California U 0.590966
43 South Carolina U 0.590932
44 Marquette 0.589323
45 Arizona State 0.588024
46 East Carolina 0.585953
47 Purdue 0.585814
48 Columbia 0.585725
49 Oregon U 0.584805
50 UNC Greensboro 0.584380
51 Auburn 0.584117
52 Hofstra 0.581093
53 Loyola Marymount 0.580635
54 Dayton 0.579912
55 Boston U 0.579764
56 Western Kentucky 0.578680
57 Utah U 0.578374
58 Northwestern U 0.576959
59 TCU 0.576885
60 Old Dominion 0.576866
61 Colorado College 0.574415
62 Arizona U 0.573190
63 Connecticut U 0.571905
64 Ohio State 0.570399
65 UC Santa Barbara 0.567284
66 Memphis 0.567215
67 Louisville 0.565305
68 UNC Wilmington 0.565079
69 New Mexico U 0.563546
70 Georgetown 0.562376
71 Fairfield 0.555599
72 Brown 0.554867
73 Saint Louis 0.554547
74 Kennesaw State 0.552466
75 Nebraska U 0.552351
76 St Johns 0.552057
77 Rice 0.551742
78 Toledo 0.551587
79 Yale 0.551044
80 Cincinnati 0.550046
81 Long Island 0.549412
82 UNLV 0.548173
83 Davidson 0.547140
84 Tennessee U 0.547032
85 Santa Clara 0.544866
86 Fordham 0.542834
87 Dartmouth 0.542757
88 Belmont 0.542453
89 Villanova 0.540352

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:I hate to root against UW...

It's easy; give it some practice.

Looks like your rooting payed off for the cougs... 1 more sunday to seal the deal.

Now the bad news.
Oregon 0-1 USC on an A-Rod goal.

Here are the top 90 in the RPI, updated through yesterday's (Friday, November 7) games. You'll see that the Pilots have dropped to #5 below Notre Dame. However, if the Pilots win tonight and Notre Dame wins tomorrow against Connecticut, I am thinking the Pilots will move back into the #4 position. This is because San Diego's good record will help the Pilots' strength of schedule and Connecticut's below .500 record will hurt Notre Dame's strength of schedule. Plus, the Pilots will get maximum bonus points. Plus, whether Oregon wins, loses, or ties tonight, I am thinking their RPI will improve due to UCLA's contribution to their strength of schedule. I could be wrong, but I think they'll be just at the edge of teams that will get consideration. I'd like to see Washington State get at least a tie out of their game tomorrow.

1 North Carolina U 0.733436
2 Stanford 0.719002
3 UCLA 0.713694
4 Notre Dame 0.698318
5 Portland U 0.694348
6 Florida State 0.685497
7 Boston College 0.668940
8 Florida U 0.664872
9 Penn State 0.647543
10 Virginia U 0.647156
11 Duke 0.643664
12 Oklahoma State 0.642509
13 USC 0.640930
14 Texas A&M 0.639593
15 Colorado U 0.637511
16 Washington U 0.632159
17 BYU 0.626565
18 Wake Forest 0.626068
19 Texas U 0.623439
20 Long Beach State 0.623251
21 Minnesota U 0.623207
22 Wisconsin Milwaukee 0.616896
23 Missouri U 0.612288
24 Virginia Tech 0.610805
25 Georgia U 0.609482
26 San Diego U 0.608651
27 Princeton 0.608170
28 Miami FL 0.605861
29 Charlotte 0.605731
30 UCF 0.605267
31 Illinois U 0.604825
32 Kansas U 0.602375
33 Rutgers 0.601422
34 West Virginia U 0.598345
35 East Carolina 0.598280
36 Denver 0.596767
37 Harvard 0.593410
38 LSU 0.592583
39 South Carolina U 0.592149
40 Hofstra 0.591955
41 Michigan State 0.591422
42 Washington State 0.591406
43 Marquette 0.591139
44 William and Mary 0.589809
45 California U 0.587684
46 Dayton 0.585980
47 UNC Greensboro 0.585437
48 Columbia 0.583623
49 James Madison 0.583130
50 Purdue 0.581859
51 Auburn 0.581788
52 Arizona State 0.580304
53 Loyola Marymount 0.580030
54 Boston U 0.579760
55 Oregon U 0.579475
56 Memphis 0.579382
57 Utah U 0.579109
58 Old Dominion 0.578937
59 Connecticut U 0.578855
60 Western Kentucky 0.578044
61 TCU 0.574761
62 Northwestern U 0.573185
63 Colorado College 0.571593
64 Ohio State 0.567897
65 UC Santa Barbara 0.567065
66 UNC Wilmington 0.565849
67 Arizona U 0.563832
68 New Mexico U 0.562843
69 Louisville 0.562344
70 Georgetown 0.561751
71 Fairfield 0.558297
72 Toledo 0.556829
73 Brown 0.554309
74 Kennesaw State 0.552574
75 Yale 0.552073
76 Tennessee U 0.551658
77 St Johns 0.550551
78 Saint Louis 0.550311
79 Long Island 0.550311
80 Nebraska U 0.549233
81 Rice 0.549018
82 Cincinnati 0.548670
83 Northeastern 0.547851
84 UNLV 0.546984
85 Davidson 0.546037
86 Santa Clara 0.543695
87 Belmont 0.542622
88 Villanova 0.542199
89 Furman 0.542069
90 Dartmouth 0.540218

Big match tonight, (Sat, Nov.8th, 8pm at USD)!!! Much, much more is on the line tonight than just the WCC title. And a dominant Pilots performance with mainly the playoff squad would be a huge confidence builder. (Although I would take 1-0 just the same!!!)

How many of you really fanatical fans are going to cancel your dinner and entertainment plans to stay home and listen to the match live, as well as mingle with other die-hard Pilot Soccer folks in that warm and cozy CHATBOX?

Or, take your laptop with you no matter where you go. (Do they have earphones on those things so you can listen to the game even at a restaurant or movie theater?)

Okay - this is sour grapes because the only thing I can do tonight is either listen to the match, watch TV or go to bed early. Of course, I choose The Match!

Well, I got a last-minute invitation to the Blazers, so I was sitting there rooting for a Blazers comeback win (they got it) and wondering about the Pilots.

Tomorrow's a really busy day for me, putting together a final RPI report by some time late tomorrow night, working at an open house at the school where I coach, and attending to anything else that comes along. So, I'll only give the following brief report:

After today's games, the Pilots are back at #4 in the RPI, ahead of Notre Dame. It's very hard for me to imagine that they won't stay at #4, as Notre Dame tomorrow plays Connecticut, which has a losing record. So, I expect the Pilots to be farther ahead of Notre Dame after that game than they are now, whether Notre Dame wins or loses. It's all going to come down to how the Women's Soccer Committee decides to handle head-to-head results and results against common opponents. I think the Committee should end up with the top three teams being Notre Dame, UCLA, and Portland, with North Carolina and Stanford fighting it out for who gets the fourth #1 seed, and with the two of them meeting in the quarters. But, that may be asking a lot from the Committee.

I nominate UPSF for the NCAA soccer committee!

I'll second that!

Great work, UPSF. Sounds like we're going to get a #1 seed. But I won't believe we're hosting Rounds 1/2 until I see it on Monday at 5pm. Just don't trust that committee, based on factual recent history.

I'm not quite as optimistic. As UPSF points out, there are 5 teams that have separated themselves from the rest. Notre Dame as #5 RPI will almost surely get a #1 seed as the only undefeated, untied team, despite their easier schedule. That leaves us at the bottom.

Another way of thinking of this, which may or may not have any bearing in the committee's thinking, is the record in matches among the top 5. Unless I'm missing something, the records are:

UCLA 2-0
Notre Dame 1-0
Stanford 0-1-1 (corrected)
UNC 0-1-1
Portland 0-1

We are the only team without a win or tie against a Top 5 team. That gives them two possible routes to giving us a #2.

Using that argument, UNC is odd man out, a tie being worth a 1/2 loss.

If you extend the reasoning, I believe we also have more wins against top 30 teams that all but UNC. We also don't have failures against unranked teams, as UCLA has with its ties with Brown and Santa Clara.

We also beat out UCLA in the record against common opponents for the same Santa Clara tie.

You can extend those arguments all kinds of ways....

Oops, I got Stanford's record wrong. (Corrected now.) Will they see a tie as half a win or half a loss, or both?

SoreKnees wrote:Oops, I got Stanford's record wrong. (Corrected now.) Will they see a tie as half a win or half a loss, or both?

I suppose they could look at in all kinds of ways, but at the top of the heap, what you concentrate on is strength of schedule and failures from perfection.
In that respect, a tie is a failure, just not as bad as a loss.

An if they go to secondary criteria, we are perfect in the last 8 games, and Stanford isn't.

Of course, everyone except Stanford and UP plays today, so there is still hope for an upset that would make it obvious.

Notre Dame wins 1-0 over UConn in OT. UNC leads 2-0 over VPI in second half. Maybe the Ducks can pull an upset!

UCLA and UO are scoreless at half. UCLA leads in shots 12-3.

Own goal against Ducks in 56th. UCLA leads 1-0.

Interesting development at U-dub.

The huskies lead Arizona 1-0 at the start of the second half, but are playing man down on a red card to Alex Webber

There seems to be a lot of 1-0 regulation and OT wins by our elite comrades at the top of the heap in the last couple weeks. And the opposition are not always great teams.

I'm reflecting on last night's match at USD, and I want everyone to remember that after USD scored the quick 2nd half goal, the Pilots started to really attack and then BOOM. Sophie scores. Coming back so quickly from a devastating goal is the sign of a great team. And when Soph tied up the score at 1-1, the Amigas had not yet entered the game.

Point being: Although we know from the Toreros coach's comments and gousd's post that the Amigas appearance energized the Pilots, (fresh bodies), and wore down the Toreros, the fact remains that it is pure speculation who would have won that game had there been no Amigas.

Yes, it was a 2nd half rout, (4-1), with the U20's in there, but it was 1-1 before they came in and no one in the world knows who might have won that game if there were no 'tres amigas'. Maybe a 2-1 Pilot OT victory like some of the top teams in the country lately. Maybe a tie, maybe a loss. Who knows.

What I do know is, when the playoff squad had to score they did so, and did it quickly with their hottest current striker. You think after tying it, Sophie, Megan and Dani would have gone to sleep? Could USD have scored again against our terrific "D" and GK?

Think about it.....