week 5 Polls and RPI

TopDrawer is out again first.



Each week I become less sure about what he's tryng to predict.

6 of the top 7 teams are ACC or PAC10 teams, and since the seeding in the tournament is largely based on RPI, I just don't see how this arrangement is possible. Some of those teams (BC) don't have a very high RPI to begin with, and 4 of those 6 teams HAVE to lose to somebody.

The way I see it, this points to a lock at a top seed if we keep winning. Our destiny is completely in our hands.

My question is: with our schedule, do we need Santa Clara to have a good season in order to maintain a decent RPI? Or will some of our opponents (like possibly UW who made it to round 2 of the tourney last year) continue to improve and will that help us?

It would definitely be nice not to have to play Stanford in the tourney until the Final 4 though I feel we can take them at full strength...

well they certainly have to have a good out of conference record.

Once the conference starts, I don't think it matters much. wins and losses on our RPI cancel out.

Here's Soccer America's poll results. (who do they poll?)

Soccer America Top 25
Sept 28, 2009
Team (Record) Last Week
1. Stanford (10-0-0) 1
2. North Carolina (9-0-1) 2
3. Portland (9-1-0) 4
4. UCLA (8-1-1) 5
5. Florida State (9-1-0) 6
6. Boston College (9-1-0) 3
7. South Carolina (10-0-0) 11
8. Notre Dame (7-3-0) 12
9. Michigan State (7-0-2) 13
10. California (6-2-0) 7
11. Santa Clara (8-3-0) 10
12. St. John’s (8-1-1) 15
13. Rutgers (8-1-2) 20
14. Oregon (7-1-1) 23
15. Florida (8-3-0) 24
16. Ohio State (8-1-1) 25
17. Connecticut (7-3-0) 16
18. Wake Forest (8-2-0) 17
19. Southern California (7-3-0) NR
20. LSU (6-2-2) NR
21. Georgia (7-1-1) 8
22. Maryland (8-2-0) 9
23. Virginia (6-2-2) 14
24. BYU (8-2-1) NR
25. Kansas (8-2-1) 18

Re BC vs FSU - I would be interested in how the flow of the game went - shots, corners, possession, etc. For BC to lose by a goal at FSU seems to be a decent result for them. FSU fan?

fan from afar wrote:Re BC vs FSU - I would be interested in how the flow of the game went - shots, corners, possession, etc. For BC to lose by a goal at FSU seems to be a decent result for them. FSU fan?

from BS

Florida State defeats BC 3-2 in game mostly controlled by FSU. After FSU went back up on an excellent goal by Price, assisted by McCarty halfway through the second half it looked like FSU was on cruise control, great possession and a couple of more chances to go up. Then came the 85th minute and FSUs defense fell apart, a number of great chances for BC due to sloppy possession and back line giveaways, too conservative. The post coupled with a great save by McNulty prevented this game from going to overtime. Mewis had a hand in both goals, excellent player.

and the box


But eyewitness response would certainly be better.

Geezaldinho wrote:well they certainly have to have a good out of conference record.

Once the conference starts, I don't think it matters much. wins and losses on our RPI cancel out.

The Geez is exactly right. From an RPI perspective, what's important, besides the Pilots having a great record, is (1) their non-conference opponents having good records throughout their seasons (both non-conference and conference); and (2) their conference opponents having good records during their non-conference seasons. Once West Coast Conference play begins, however, it doesn't matter much which WCC teams win and which lose because for every win by one conference member there will be a matching loss by another. (I say "much" because it can matter very slightly since different teams in the conference play different numbers of non-conference games, but any effect of that would be very minimal.) So, what we're looking for, in terms of WCC teams and their contribution to our strength of schedule is how well they've done as of the end of non-conference play.

Last year, the WCC was #6 in average strength out of 30 conferences, which is determined almost entirely by non-conference results. That sounds pretty good except it means that there were five conferences ahead of us. Once we're playing conference games, it's the average conference strength that affects the evolution of our strength of schedule. So, last year we had five other conferences' whose strengths of schedule were on a more positive path than ours, once conference play began.

This year, the WCC so far is #4 in average strength and very close to #3. Our final position will not be set until after next weekend, since the WCC, the Pac Ten, and some of their opponents still are in non-conference play. I think it's likely, though, that we'll end up either #3 or 4 (definitely behind the Pac Ten and ACC, and possibly behind the SEC but if so, only barely behind). In addition, last year we were farther behind the Pac Ten and ACC than this year, at least as of last Monday.

The likely issue for the Pilots, in terms of a #1 seed, will be whether there are Pac Ten and ACC teams that have comparable win-loss records to the Pilots. Right now, of the likely candidates, only North Carolina has a better strength of non-conference schedule than the Pilots. So, it looks like UNC is in a good position to finish ahead of the Pilots. Stanford has a better record, but lesser strength of schedule, than the Pilots. If they win out, they also are in a good position to finish ahead of the Pilots (better record, better conference strength, will offset the Pilots better strength of non-conference schedule). After that, the question will be whether there are any other teams with good enough records and with good enough (though lesser) non-conference schedules to pass the Pilots due to their conference strength. Likely only Pac Ten or ACC teams could do that. And, it's correct to say that if the Pilots can win out, there probably will be enough attrition among the Pac Ten and ACC teams to make it unlikely that any of them will pass the Pilots.

The only clinker in this is that South Carolina is undefeated. If that were to continue, they might sneak ahead of the Pilots in the Women's Soccer Committee members' minds, regardless of their RPI. Then the question would be whether there's any other team out there to worry about.

This may be as clear as mud. The simple answer is, win every game, one at a time. If the Pilots do that, I think it pretty likely they'll get a #1 seed.

fan from afar wrote:Re BC vs FSU - I would be interested in how the flow of the game went - shots, corners, possession, etc. For BC to lose by a goal at FSU seems to be a decent result for them. FSU fan?

FSUfan is Crazyhorse I caught the game thanks to FSUs new web casting deal. FSU controlled possession throughout the game, BC had 2 great chances before the 85th minute and scored on both. One was off of a beautiful cross, set up by Mewis(outstanding player, big and fast) running 30 yards right through and around our defense and sending a perfect cross right across the mouth of the goal landing at the feet of the BC attacker who slotted it in, a picturesque goal. Shots on goal where 7-5 in FSUs favor and 3 of the sog for BC happened in the dramatic final 5 minutes. We went up halfway through the second half, and like I said looked to be in control, playing possession and passing it around between our backs and mids and only attacking when the chance arose, not pushing it. From what it looked like, the BC coach realized that her team could no longer sit back and watch us play pass, so she decided to get aggressive(smart move just too late) and a mid came up to give them 3 attackers and they started to chase like bats outta hell wherever we passed the ball in the back, and wouldn't you know it we started screwing up, getting lazy and they intercepted a couple of balls and very well should have scored. The post and McNulty saved us. I was surprised to see that BC out shot us, the quality shots by BC were their two goals and the frenzied end of the game. It was a great result for BC and they have nothing to hang their heads about. As for FSU, our rookie back line has done as best as could be expected, we are letting in more goals than usual, but they will only get better and our center back, who has been out the last 6 games should be back in a couple of weeks.

UPSF - Assuming we win out and get a number 1 seed, isn't there still that other factor, something about there having to be another tournament team within a certain distance in order to host the first two rounds? I recall last year that we were looking for the Washington and/or Oregon teams to fill this roll - to be in the tournament, but not so high as to earn a top 16 seed.

The Geez knows this well too, but yes, to host the first/second rounds, there probably will have to be an unseeded team that makes the tournament and is within 400 miles of U of P. Chances are, that will occur this year, as both the Oregon Pac Ten teams and both the Washington Pac Ten teams look like good possibilities for at least at large selections. We can imagine an absolute disaster in which all of those teams and the Pilots are seeded -- and all of them get shipped elsewhere! But, that seems like a pretty longshot.

The other thing we can hope for is that Portland State wins the Big Sky, which definitely is possible.

Gonzaga getting an at large selection, which right now seems doubtful, would not help. They and Portland cannot be at the same first/second round site.

"We can imagine an absolute disaster in which all of those teams and the Pilots are seeded -- and all of them get shipped elsewhere! But, that seems like a pretty longshot."

That does seem very unlikely, in fact extremely so.

Question - I assume that if, say, 3 of these NW teams ended up seeded and there was only one unseeded team from the NW, that only the highest seeded team would get to host??

fan from afar wrote:"We can imagine an absolute disaster in which all of those teams and the Pilots are seeded -- and all of them get shipped elsewhere! But, that seems like a pretty longshot."

That does seem very unlikely, in fact extremely so.

Question - I assume that if, say, 3 of these NW teams ended up seeded and there was only one unseeded team from the NW, that only the highest seeded team would get to host??

In principle, that's the way it works -- unless....

Unless the unseeded team is in the same conference as the highest ranked seeded team, in which case the rules prohibit them from being in the same first weekend pod. We can't pair up with Gonzaga, and the PAC10 schools can't pair up with each other. In the unlikely case that Eastern Washington and PSU have high enough RPI's, they can't pair with each other.

UW or OSU seem on the surface to be in the worst shape this way. They only have us, Eastern Washington, Gonzaga, and PSU to pair up with. Most years the three latter teams are in theory only. OSU might actually be in the worst position, since I think Eastern Washington and Gonzaga would fall outside the 400 mile radius for the Beavers. They thus only have Two potential partners, and PSU has never been in the tournament that I can remember.

a couple of the other seeded teams are on the fringes of the region, in which case there might be schools closer to them. Washington State, Gonzaga, and U of O all might have teams within 400 miles to pair with that we don't. (the Idaho schools, for example, or Weber State. I haven't checked U of O's radius, but a school like Sac State might be in their Radius.)

And the travel rule isn't etched in stone. It gives the committee the ability to decide the pairings. Next year, for instance, Seattle U becomes tournament eligible. The committee may decide to pair UW and them becuse they are only a couple of miles apart, and we might get frozen out in the interests of saving travel costs.

With only one game and a 1-0 score, it would have been pretty impossible for a UP player to be named. Here's the SATOW anyway.

Notice that they have gone back to is what for them a normal formation. They are in a 3-1-6 with only one keeper. I guess they figured the two keeper thing wouldn't work out so well.

GOALKEEPER
Coral Hoover (Cal Poly), Sr.
Made nine saves in 1-0 win over ranked Cal and earned another shutout in 3-0 victory over Arizona.

DEFENDERS
Chelsea Buehning (USC), Soph.
Scored winning goal and helped defense stymied ranked Santa Clara in 2-0 win on the road.
Jessica Schuveiller (Notre Dame), Soph.
Scored winner in 2-1 win at Cincinnati and was part of backline that shut out Louisville, 1-0.
Andrea Willis (BYU), Sr.
Scored first goal of season in 3-2 win over Southern Utah and anchored defense in 3-0 win over Utah State, Cougars' fifth in a row.

MIDFIELDERS
Amber McCall (Floria Gulf Coast), Sr.
Scored game-winning goals in wins over Atlantic Sun perennial powers Mercer (2-1) and Kennesaw State (1-0).

FORWARDS
Kaitlin Bast (Denver), Fr.
Had two goals and had two assists against Louisiana-Monroe (6-0) and recorded hat trick against Louisiana-Lafayette (6-1).
Corky Julien (James Madison), Sr.
Canadian scored gamewinner in 2-1 victory at George Mason and golden goal in 3-2 home win over Towson.
Tiffany McCarty (Florida State), Soph.
Scored first goal in 2-1 win over Maryland and added goal and game-winning assist in 3-2 win over Boston College.
Laurie Nosbusch (Wisconsin), Soph.
Garnered first career hat trick after scoring winning goal in 88th minute of 3-2 victory over ranked Indiana.
Whitney Palmer (Oklahoma), Jr.
Scored two early first-half goals in 3-2 win over ranked Texas A&M, Sooners' first win over Aggies in 15 meetings.
Rachel Yepez, (LSU), Sr.
Had goal and two assists in 6-0 win over Georgia and added two goals in 5-1 victory over Tennessee.

I see Corky Julien made it for James Madison. She was a ball of fire in their game with us last year in the Tournament.

I sure looks like they aren't buying into the RPI yet. Lots of low RPI teams are here.

NSCAA National Rankings
NCAA Rankings National Women
Division I National Poll - September 29, 2009

Rank School Prev. W-L-T
1 North Carolina (22) 814 1 9 - 0 - 1
2 Stanford (11) 803 2 10 - 0 - 0
3 UCLA 744 3 8 - 1 - 1
4 Portland 729 4 9 - 1 - 0
5 Florida State 701 5 9 - 1 - 0
6 Boston College 619 6 9 - 1 - 0
7 Florida 594 10 8 - 3 - 0
8 South Carolina 550 12 10 - 0 - 0
9 Wake Forest 511 7 8 - 2 - 0
10 Notre Dame 510 14 7 - 3 - 0
11 Santa Clara 433 9 8 - 3 - 0
12 Purdue 401 15 6 - 2 - 2
13 Rutgers 372 17 8 - 1 - 2
14 California 338 8 6 - 2 - 0
15 Ohio State 326 21 8 - 1 - 1
16 Texas A&M 275 13 6 - 4 - 0
17 St. John's 250 23 8 - 1 - 1
18 Virginia 233 11 6 - 2 - 2
19 Arizona State 189 RV 7 - 1 - 2
20 Michigan State 185 RV 7 - 0 - 2
21 Central Florida 139 22 6 - 3 - 1
22 Georgia 111 16 8 - 1 - 1
23 LSU 108 NR 6 - 2 - 2
24 Maryland 91 18 8 - 2 - 0
25 San Diego 90 24 6 - 3 - 1
Number in parentheses indicates number of first place votes

Also receiving votes: Washington State 85, Kansas 79, Charlotte 51, BYU 46, Connecticut 42, USC 40, Oklahoma State 38, Indiana 30, William & Mary 28, Illinois 23, Villanova 22, Washington 13, Oregon State 11, Denver 10, Virginia Tech 10, Miami (Fla.) 8, Georgetown 5, Oregon 4, Loyola Marymount 1

Geezaldinho wrote:I sure looks like they aren't buying into the RPI yet. Lots of low RPI teams are here.

NSCAA National Rankings
NCAA Rankings National Women
Division I National Poll - September 29, 2009

Rank School Prev. W-L-T

22 Georgia 111 16 8 - 1 - 1
23 LSU 108 NR 6 - 2 - 2

Pretty funny, since LSU beat Georgia 6-0!

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:

Geezaldinho wrote:I sure looks like they aren't buying into the RPI yet. Lots of low RPI teams are here.

NSCAA National Rankings
NCAA Rankings National Women
Division I National Poll - September 29, 2009

Rank School Prev. W-L-T

22 Georgia 111 16 8 - 1 - 1
23 LSU 108 NR 6 - 2 - 2

Pretty funny, since LSU beat Georgia 6-0!

It makes trying to describe the polling process without using the phrase "dodo head" pretty difficult.

Its almost as bad as the football polls, Oregon wins by 39 points and is still ranked below Cal in several polls.

aleppiek wrote:Its almost as bad as the football polls, Oregon wins by 39 points and is still ranked below Cal in several polls.

6 scores in soccer is worse than 5 1/2 scores in football.

And 1 spot in the polls is closer than 6 spots.

aleppiek wrote:And 1 spot in the polls is closer than 6 spots.

Comparing American football to futbol is futile. Polls aren't scientific, but, I seriously could care less about the Ducks...

AJ appreciate you putting in your 2 cents. I think you missed the point.

Oh, no... He didn't...

I get it you guys dislike the Ducks... That doesn't change that coaches polls are inherently flawed...

Well if you want to get philosophical, what poll isn't??

DaTruRochin wrote:Well if you want to get philosophical, what poll isn't??

Agreed, but for what its worth, at least the NCAA FB AP poll, you can look up who everyone voted for. I think it is a complete joke that you have these coaches who clearly delegate their voting anyways (or at least that is always their response when something is outted) With a poll that has zero accountability. It is nice that at least in NCAA "Futebol" these rankings mean nothing. But in "Football" it actually determines who goes to what bowls and ultimately the school and conference take. It wouldn't matter so much I guess if "Football" had a playoff, but that is a whole different topic.