Week 6 polls and RPI

this week we get to see how the NCAA and UPSF compare with their RPI's. the NCAA releases its first RPI rankings.

but first, topdrawer has a little love for us again.
I assume he'll get the wins and game count right eventually.





http://www.topdrawersoccer.com/college-soccer/college-soccer-tournament-ranking/women

Stanford remained No. 1 in the Soccer America Women's Top 25 for the third straight week, but North Carolina, the Preseason No. 1, fell to No. 3 and was replaced at No. 2 by Portland. Virginia Tech, which beat North Carolina, 1-0, on Sunday for its second win against a Top 25 team in four days, moved into the Top 25 at No. 6.

Soccer America Women's Top 25
TEAM (RECORD) LAST WEEK
1. Stanford (11-0-0) 1
2. Portland (11-1-0) 3
3. North Carolina (10-1-1) 2
4. UCLA (9-1-1) 4
5. Florida State (10-1-0) 5
6. Virginia Tech (10-2-0) NR
7. Boston College (9-2-0) 6
8. South Carolina (11-0-1) 7
9. Notre Dame (8-3-1) 8
10. Michigan State (7-1-2) 9
11. St. John's (9-2-1) 12
12. Rutgers (9-1-3) 13
13. Connecticut (9-3-0) 17
14. USC (8-3-0) 19
15. LSU (8-2-2) 20
16. Georgia (9-1-1) 21
17. Maryland (9-2-0) 22
18. BYU (8-3-1) 24
19. California (6-3-1) 10
20. Santa Clara (8-4-1) 11
21. Wake Forest (9-2-1) 18
22. Purdue (7-2-3) NR
23. Texas A&M (7-4-1) NR
24. Mississippi (8-3-0) NR
25. Oregon (8-2-1) 14

wow. unranked to #6 in the middle of the season.

Also good to see A&M creep up in the rankings too... It can't hurt anyway...
Haha and i know they beat UNC, but uh... from nothing to #6??? Welcome to the volatility of a human poll...

Let's see who can beat Stanford. The zero in the losses column is a tempting target.

purple haze wrote:Let's see who can beat Stanford. The zero in the losses column is a tempting target.

Given what I've seen of the Pac-10 teams that the Pilots have played, Stanford won't have to slip much to get tagged with an in-conference loss. If they run the table, they will deserve the #1 overall seed.

Stanford plays all the California and Arizona schools at home. Their only conference road trips are to the NW.

But we really don't need Stanford to lose. There are 4 #1 seeds and they and we can surely get two of them. Perhaps better for them to beat UCLA and USC so that the SoCal schools do not look like tempting #1 seeds to knock us out.

SoreKnees wrote:Stanford plays all the California and Arizona schools at home. Their only conference road trips are to the NW.

But we really don't need Stanford to lose. There are 4 #1 seeds and they and we can surely get two of them. Perhaps better for them to beat UCLA and USC so that the SoCal schools do not look like tempting #1 seeds to knock us out.

This seems like a very good point. Any number one seed will do, and if Stanford can eliminate potential one-seed rivals, great.

purple haze wrote:Let's see who can beat Stanford. The zero in the losses column is a tempting target.

Two teams have a chance. Assuming UCLA get's back two of their three top midfielders (Lang gone) Wright, ankle, Cheney back from camp, maybe they can stir things up at the farm and.... believe it or not, I think WSU will give them all they can handle at home. Stanford will handle the rest of the bunch.

Pilots are third in this one. UNC is two votes ahead, UCLA is two behind...

October 5, 2009

(Records include games of Sunday, October 4)
-- First-place votes in parentheses --

Rank School Record Pts LW
1 Stanford (16) 11-0-0 400 1
2 North Carolina 10-1-1 366 2
3 Portland 11-1-0 364 4
4 UCLA 9-1-1 362 3
5 Florida State 10-1-0 343 5
6 Boston College 10-2-0 313 6
7 South Carolina 11-0-1 282 7
8 Notre Dame 8-3-1 241 10
9 Wake Forest 9-2-1 229 9
10 Louisiana State 8-2-2 212 17
11 Rutgers 9-1-3 205 12
12 Virginia Tech 10-2-0 182 nr
13 Brigham Young 10-2-1 168 20
14 Texas A&M 7-4-1 149 15
15 Santa Clara 8-4-1 143 13
16 Georgia 10-1-1 135 22
17 Florida 8-4-1 129 8
18 Purdue 7-2-3 120 21
19 Southern California 8-3-0 102 nr
20 Virginia 6-3-2 99 11
21 Ohio State 8-2-1 81 18
22 California 6-3-1 78 14
23 Michigan State 7-1-3 76 16
24 St. John's 9-2-1 71 23
25 Central Florida 8-3-1 65 25t

Key: Pts - Total points. LW - Last week's ranking. t - tie. nr - no ranking

Dropped out: No. 19 Kansas, No. 24 Illinois, No. 25t Washington.

Others receiving votes: Washington State 62, Maryland 50, Connecticut 41, Arizona State 31, Kansas 28, Indiana 18, Oregon 18, Washington 14, Mississippi 12, Penn State 10, Illinois 6, Mississippi State 5, Oregon State 3, Dayton 2, Missouri 1, New Mexico 1.

Voting panel: Patrick Baker, Georgia; Kevin Boyd, Arizona State; Anson Dorrance, North Carolina; Jillian Ellis, UCLA; Carin Gabarra, Navy; G Guerrieri, Texas A&M; Angela Kelly, Tennessee; Brian Lee, Lousiana State; Chris Petrucelli, Texas; Jennifer Rockwood, Brigham Young; Dan Tobias, Arizona, Len Tsantiris, Connecticut; Mike Tucker, Dayton; Randy Waldrum, Notre Dame, Tim Ward, Pepperdine; Mikki Denney Wright, Minnesota.

Voting method: On each ballot, 25 points is awarded for first place, 24 for second place, 23 for third, etc., to 1 point for 25th place.

CAL lost and tied a game and dropped 7 slots after their tumultuous weekend.
VA Tech went from unranked to 12 in this one.
Tamu tied a game and went up in the poll two slots.
Notre dame tied a game and went up two slots.
Purdue tied a game and went up three slots.


St, John's lost a game and dropped 1 slot.
UW won both their games and dropped off the chart.

Go figure...

Wow! Wake Forest putting the hurt on Florida State. 3-0 with only ten minutes left!

Glad you enjoyed that. We have to learn how to win on the road.

irish78 wrote:Wow! Wake Forest putting the hurt on Florida State. 3-0 with only ten minutes left!

Yes, the final score was 3-0. With that score already entered into GoCourage's (nc-soccer's) scoring system, with the system's ability to immediately generate revised RPI ratings, the Pilots now have returned to the Unadjusted RPI #3 ranking position behind UNC and Stanford.

One of my TA buddies will be happy as his niece plays for WF.

Geezaldinho wrote:this week we get to see how the NCAA and UPSF compare with their RPI's. the NCAA releases its first RPI rankings.

In case anyone is wondering about this, because the NCAA's bonuses for good wins/ties and penalties for bad losses/ties are secret, there's part of the RPI formula no one knows. There are 12 different bonus amounts and 12 different penalty amounts, for a total of 24 variables. For a nut like me who is trying to figure out the entire formula, that means using trial and error, with 24 variables, to try to get my RPI rankings to exactly match the NCAA's. This is compounded by the fact that the NCAA and I both have occasional errors in our data bases. Because I know there will be errors, I try to identify them by comparing my team win-loss-tie and away-neutral-home totals with the NCAA's and then, where we have discrepancies, I try to figure out the games involved in the discrepancies and whether the error is mine or the NCAA's. If it's mine, I correct my data. If it's the NCAA's, I advise them of the error, they check with the teams involved, and if I am right the teams hopefully correct their erroneous entries into the NCAA's data gathering system. For the NCAA's just-released RPI report, however, I won't know whether the errors in their system have been corrected until the NCAA issues its next report (in two weeks) and I can check to see if their data now are correct. Over the last two years, I've refined my bonus and penalty amounts, but I'm sure they don't exactly match the NCAA's.

So, with all of that in mind, here's how my current RPI rankings compare with the NCAA's:

For the entire group of 322 teams that are playing Division I women's soccer this year:

My RPI rankings match the NCAA's for 163 teams; and

For the 159 other teams, my RPI rankings average being within 1.5 positions of the NCAA's. Two are off by 6 positions, two are off by 4 positions, and all others are off by 1-3 positions.

For the top 100 teams, which are the only teams likely to be involved in NCAA Tournament at large selection and seeding decision-making processes:

My RPI rankings match the NCAA's for 65 teams; and

For the 35 other teams, my RPI rankings average being within 1.5 positions of the NCAA's. One is off by 4 positions (#80 South Florida, in my rankings), three are off by 3 positions, nine are off by 2 positions, and twenty two are off by 1 position.

So, although my RPI ratings are not perfect, they appear to be quite reliable.

Albyn Jones' new ratings are out for games through October 4. On a quick review, it looks to me like his ratings still give a heavy weight to prior years' performance. Here is a link: http://soccerratings.com/index.php?title=Women%27s_NCAA_Division_I_Fall_2009_Ratings_as_of_Oct._4th