North Carolina loses

Florida State 3
North Carolina 2

In 2 OT

FSU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wow!!!! Congrats, FSUFan!

There is still another loss between those two teams in their conference tournament. It looks like they might both be #1 seeds anyway. It also looks like our fate is in our hands. If we win out. we look to be a #1 seed.

PilotNut wrote:Wow!!!! Congrats, FSUFan!

Thanks, well played game by FSU, Amanda DaCosta, who hasn't played like herself all year returned to form and really got our offense going, lots of nifty footwork through and around defenders. About us both being 1 seeds, FSU still has NCState Sunday and two tough squads next weekend on the road in Va Tech and Virginia(who we have never defeated.)

Geezaldinho wrote:There is still another loss between those two teams in their conference tournament. It looks like they might both be #1 seeds anyway. It also looks like our fate is in our hands. If we win out. we look to be a #1 seed.

The way the Geez arrives at his conclusion is by using a great feature on the nc-soccer website: http://www.nc-soccer.com/wsoccer/2009/ The website, among other things, shows the unadjusted RPI for each team. If you click on the Unadjusted RPI heading, it will sort the teams by their unadjusted RPI ratings, from worst to best. If you click on the heading again, it will sort the teams from best to worst. Then, if you go to the unadjusted RPI box for each team and click on the box, you will cause a chart to appear on part of the screen. The chart shows the evolution of the team's RPI over the course of the season. Towards the right, there's a break in one of the lines, which occurs at "today." The balance of the lines that show on the chart are a projection forward of how the team's RPI will develop over the balance of the season if the team wins the rest of its games.

The unadjusted RPI line has a series of circles along it. Each of these is a date you can click on and at the top of the chart under the team's name you will see the team's unadjusted RPI as of that date. If you click on the circle at the far right of the chart, you will see the team's ending unadjusted RPI if it wins out. By doing this for Stanford, North Carolina, Portland, Florida State, UCF, and UCLA, you will see that if all these teams win out (and North Carolina and Florida State won't both win out since they have yet to play the ACC Tournament), then the "likely" final order of unadjusted RPI rankings will be (1) Stanford, (2) North Carolina, (3) Portland, (4) UCLA, (5) Florida State, (6) UCF. (It is possible that UCF, even if it wins out, could be displaced by Georgia, Virginia Tech, or Wake Forest, if they win out. The likelihood of VT or WF winning out is very low. Georgia is a possibility, but not likely.) Thus this looks like one of the four #1 seeds for the Pilots.

I say "likely" because the nc-soccer site uses the unadjusted RPI, not the adjusted. So, the bonus/penalty points could change teams' order. I'm guessing that is not likely to hurt the Pilots. In addition, the chart's projection forward for each team of necessity assumes that everything else remains as it is now for the other teams. But, all teams still are playing games, which means that the records of teams that other teams already have played are changing from week to week, for better or worse. So, teams' strengths of schedule will be evolving over the balance of the season in ways that are impossible to predict right now. Like the bonus/penalty adjustments, this also could change teams' order. Still, the nc-soccer "looking forward" feature is the best thing out there for guessing where teams will end up, and it looks good for the Pilots.

There also are a couple of other considerations coming into play, based on the non-RPI criteria. (1) If the Pilots win out, they will have beaten San Diego. UCLA tied San Diego. This would give the Pilots a further boost in relation to UCLA, based on the "results against common opponents" criterion. (2) Florida State's win over North Carolina, in theory, gives them a boost in relation to UNC based on the "head to head results" criterion. North Carolina, however, will have a large RPI gap over Florida State, probably enough to overcome the head to head result. (3) UCLA, however, lost to North Carolina. I don't think the score of the loss will be relevant to the Women's Soccer Committee, as the Committee tries not to consider game scores. However, with FSU having a win over North Carolina, it gets a boost in relation to UCLA under the "results against common opponents" criterion. Since FSU and UCLA appear very close in the RPI race, this might boost FSU ahead of UCLA into a #1 seed. (4) UCF beat FSU, which means they get a boost in relation to FSU under the "head to head results" criterion. Here, as with UNC/FSU, however, it appears that FSU will have a wide RPI edge over UCF. In any event, I don't see UCF getting enough of a boost from the head to head result to overtake FSU.

A possible setup for the Tournament is the four #1 teams being, in the following order: (1) Stanford, (2) North Carolina, (3) Portland, (4) Florida State. I could see the next two teams being (5) UCLA and (6) UCF, with Florida State playing UCLA in the quarters and the Pilots playing UCF in the quarters.

With all that said, the absolutely critical thing for the Pilots is to win their remaining games. It is an absolute must!

Starting tomorrow - Go Pilots!

Great explanation.

When I did that, I also discounted UCF on more general grounds that their last games are teams with bad loosing records and won't impress or gain from the adjusted RPI.

UCLA has too many common opponents with us to surpass us especially considering that if we beat USD we will have the common opponent advantage.




But I was about to give an explanation more like this--

[quote="UPSoccerFanatic"]

Geezaldinho wrote:If the Pilots win out, they will have beaten San Diego. UCLA tied San Diego. This would give the Pilots a further boost in relation to UCLA, based on the "results against common opponents" criterion.

UCLA also still has to play all the northwest Pac-10 schools, all of whom the Pilots have beaten. There is a decent chance that at least one of the schools will put a further ding on UCLA's record, giving the Pilots a further "common opponents" boost.

[quote="UPSoccerFanatic"]

Geezaldinho wrote:It is possible that UCF, even if it wins out, could be displaced by Georgia, Virginia Tech, or Wake Forest, if they win out. The likelihood of VT or WF winning out is very low.

VT beat WF today 4-3.

[quote="eProf"]

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:

Geezaldinho wrote:It is possible that UCF, even if it wins out, could be displaced by Georgia, Virginia Tech, or Wake Forest, if they win out. The likelihood of VT or WF winning out is very low.

VT beat WF today 4-3.

The nc-soccer website already had updated RPI numbers taking into consideration the VT v WF result. That website is very current and does real-time RPI calculations as results are entered. So, notwithstanding its loss, Wake still, if it wins out, could displace UCF. But, chances of Wake winning out are very slim.

[quote="eProf"]

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:

Geezaldinho wrote:It is possible that UCF, even if it wins out, could be displaced by Georgia, Virginia Tech, or Wake Forest, if they win out. The likelihood of VT or WF winning out is very low.

VT beat WF today 4-3.

I think both UPSF and I looked at the RPI's and made the evaluations after the VT-WF game and the rest of today's games.


The other aspect is that the projections include that we will get some help from our non-conference opponents who aren't common opponents with each of the teams in question. Illinois and Miami, for instance, haven't been helping a lot lately in their conferences. they were supposed to be decent teams this year.

I think I prefer Geezer's alternate explanation, it looks great and powerful.

http://www.americanrhetoric.com/mp3clips/newmoviespeeches/moviespeechthewizardofozwizardsoffer.mp3