Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology

Wasn't sure if this deserved its own topic or not but just found this on ESPN from Joe Lunardi. I'm posting this now and braketology has yet to be updated so later today that should be up.

• Which brings us to our favorite parlor game, January RPI outliers. On the "plus" end, consider: St. John's (No. 6), Old Dominion (No. 22), Cleveland State (No. 29), Rhode Island (No. 32), Portland (No. 34), Princeton (No. 37), James Madison (No. 54), Nicholls State (No. 60). Keep in mind that a year ago at this time, William & Mary was No. 2.

• On the "minus" end, you may want to take note of: Duke (No. 16), Villanova (No. 24), Washington (No. 27), Wisconsin (No. 31), Minnesota (No. 38), Missouri (No. 44), Michigan State (No. 48), Gonzaga (No. 55), Memphis (No. 64), Washington State (No. 66), Florida State (No. 83), Marquette (No. 117), Maryland (No. 123), Clemson (No. 133). Most if not all of this numerical jumble will sort itself out as conference play unfolds.

• We have two January "bid thieves" in this bracket. Both Drexel and Portland have ridden either early conference victories or an RPI tiebreaker into AQ positions in the Colonial and West Coast Conference, respectively. Cleveland State, at 4-0 in the Horizon League, is in a similar AQ position, but not yet a bid thief as the Vikings are also very much in range of at-large consideration. Drexel is on the outside edge of that group.

• Many ask why we place such bid thieves in a bracket in which the CAA (Old Dominion) and WCC (Gonzaga, Saint Mary's) are already represented. The answer is to best replicate the dynamics of March, when we'll almost certainly see one or more "upset" winners of mid-major conference tournaments. In this projection, Oklahoma State and Northwestern are bumped out of the field by Drexel and Portland.

what I take from it is that we currently have a nice RPI and we may have a chance to upset some teams during WCC in Vegas to make it in. We would have to do some work, by that I mean beat Saint Mary's and/or Gonzaga at least once while beating pretty much any other team to get an at-large to the Big Dance. Just to reiterate the point: who would have thought we'd be in this position heading into conference play. A strong sign for a quality program is one that can compete despite being in a "rebuilding" year. It is what makes the difference between a Gonzaga and George Mason.

purplepride13 wrote:Also, Lunardi says that unless we win against Gonzaga this week, we will be out of the projection next time.