Pilots vs. Portland State (Wednesday, Nov. 21 @ 7:00)

Pomeroy projects a 71% probability of a win over PSU on Wednesday. I think anyone that's watched the last two games would say that's extremely generous.

Sagarin ranks PSU at 230 and UP at 294 which is probably more reasonable at this point.

Portland State (1-1) at Portland (1-2), 7 p.m.
Portland has started off the season with a similar problem to last season: shooting the ball. The team is averaging 55 points per game and shooting 39 percent from the field. The only two players with any offensive consistency are Ryan Nicholas and Kevin Bailey. With a stretch of games coming up that includes Washington State, UNLV, and Kentucky, the Pilots have to find that rhythm and find it fast.

Predicted winner: Portland State

We need impact talent STAT

The last time the programs met - in December of 2010, Portland beat Portland State, 78-67, at the Stott Center. Meanwhile, PSU took the last game at the Chiles Center, an 86-82 upset of the then-25th-ranked Pilots, in December of 2009.

THE SERIES: The series between Portland and Portland State takes on three distinct eras. The Pilots lead the all-time series, 32-17. The Pilots had a 16-1 advantage between 1946-65. The teams did not meet again until 1971, and PSU held a 9-8 advantage from 1971 to 1981 when the Viking program was discontinued. In 1996-97 PSU basketball was reinstated and since that time it has been a close series, with the Pilots leading, 8-7. The Vikings have been 2-5 at the Chiles Center during that span... prior to the Portland win in 2010, the Vikings had won four straight between 2006-09... during this past off-season the schools signed a four-year contract to play at alternating home sites.


NO SURPRISE HERE: Portland State is shooting .505 from the field, .391 from distance and .804 at the line after two games. PSU ranks third in field goal percentage and first in free throw percentage in the Big Sky Conference. That comes as no surprise as the Viking program has traditionally been prolific on offense. PSU, which is averaging 73.0 points, led the Big Sky in scoring each season from 2007-08 to 2010-11. Last year, the Vikings were second in scoring at 76.0 points per game, and led the Big Sky in field goal percentage (.483). The Vikings ranked 13th in the nation in field goal percentage and 26th in scoring last season.

GREAT START FOR DRE: SO G Dre Winston Jr. has gotten his Portland State career off to a great start. Winston Jr. transferred to Portland State from Washington State where he played as a freshman in 2010-11, then sat out last season as a redshirt at PSU... through two games, Winston Jr. is the Vikings' leading scorer at 15.5 points per game, while shooting .786 from the field, .667 from three-point range and .714 at the line.

MOORE, MOORE, MOORE: Another new Viking off to a good start is JR F Aaron Moore. The 6-8 JC transfer has a silky smooth jump shot that has led to 11.0 points per game and a .643 shooting mark. Moore also averages a team-best 5.0 rebounds in 24 minutes per game.

PARKER'S PART: Though he has been touted as one of the Vikings' top returning players, if not the top player, SR F Renado Parker has only now made his first career starts in the opening two games. Parker is second on the team in scoring at 11.5 points and second in rebounding at 4.0 per game. He also has a team-high five steals.

LOCAL ANGLE: For just the third time in history, Portland State will play the other three in-state Division I schools in the same season. The Vikings played at Oregon on Nov. 12, losing 80-69. PSU is at Portland on Nov. 21, then hosts Oregon State on Dec. 12. The other two seasons in which that triple occured were 1996-97 and 2002-03. PSU is 2-10 against Oregon since reinstating basketball in 1996-97, 7-8 against Portland and 0-5 against Oregon State.

BALANCED ATTACK: Portland State does not have a freshman on the roster in 2012-13. But, the Vikings do have a balanced roster with five sophomores, five juniors and five seniors... every player on the Viking roster is 20 or older... there are only six schools in the nation that do not have a freshman on the roster - true or redshirt. They are: Portland State, Ohio, Southern Illinois Edwardsville, Savannah State, Alabama-Birmingham, and Valparaiso

PilotNut wrote:Thanks, Dean. Well done... much better than what I cut and paste in there!

DeanMurdoch wrote:Multiple people creating game threads at the same time? That's gotta be a good sign. I'm grasping here.

DoubleDipper wrote:I know Rev said something about more "competing consistently" and the "need to battle for 40," but I'm not sure those elements alone will make the Pilots quit turning the ball over and help them make shots.

up7587 wrote:The methodical offenseive approach worked a lot better when there were reliable outside shooters on the team.

NoPoNeighbor wrote:The Montana State announcer made a really important point during the broadcast on Sunday. He said that Kevin Baily is the only Pilot who has an aggressive offensive instinct. He also said that UP's methodical offensive approach all but eliminates improvisation and spontaneity, which makes it much easier for opponents to pick off passes and force other kinds of turnovers. After three games, our offensive is already entirely predictable. This doesn't seem like a simple issue of lack of effort and focus. And it also goes beyond lack of talent. The offensive system is not working. Will the staff shake things up now, or will we continue with this lethargic offensive play for the rest of the season? I think we have enough evidence already to demonstrate that a 'plan B' is in order.

The methodical offensive approach worked a lot better when there were reliable outside shooters on the team.

DeanMurdoch wrote:Oh, you've been to this neck of the woods?

NoPoNeighbor wrote:That's WHL territory!

As up7587 wrote:

The methodical offensive approach worked a lot better when there were reliable outside shooters on the team.

oh brody wrote:1) Better ball movement. Quick snappy passes. I can't stand telegraphed lazy passes. Upon receiving the ball, look for a scoring opportunity if an opportunity is not there utilize quick ball movement to get the defense out of position and find an open teammate. Use ball fakes to get the defense moving one direction and then make a quick snappy pass in the opposite.

oh brody wrote:2) I want to see our post players being aggressive and wanting to score. We are way too passive down low. Flash to the ball, flash to the hoop, do whatever to make yourselves big targets - want the ball and know what you are going to do if you get it.

oh brody wrote:2b) Perimeter players, get the ball to the post who should be working hard to get open. If his shot is not there keep moving so he can get it back to you for an open jumper. Take the jumper if it’s open! Make yourself a scoring threat; make the defense pay for sagging on the posts. If the jumper is not open make a quick snappy pass until you find someone who is.

3) On in-bounds plays, guards please, please cut towards the ball not away from it

oh brody wrote:4) On Defense, I would like to see everyone with their arms extended and hands up clogging passing lanes and taking up space. We play far too much defense with our arms near the sides or our bodies. Communication is also important; we don’t do enough talking on the defensive end calling out screens, calling out shots, ball-ball, etc. Be chatty-Kathy out there – I personally believe a defense that is collectively talking as a unit can psych out an offense.

PilotNut wrote:
The Athletic Dept. has made a big deal about the consistency of the coaching staff over the years; while I agree that it is generally a good thing, some fresh/outside perspective/advice isnt a bad thing now and then, too... I hope they are getting that.