Current state of the program

DeanMurdoch wrote:

up7587 wrote:Then, probably, an opening round game against LMU in Vegas, trying to beat them a third time.

That didn't work out so well last time.

If this team finishes any better than 11-22 there's going to have been some serious rabbits pulled outta the ol' hat.

Um, last time was last year.....UP beat Santa Clara in the opening game after beating them twice during the regular season. (UP then went on to lose to USF in the Thursday game.)

Were you thinking of another last time?

DeanMurdoch wrote:If this team finishes any better than 11-22 there's going to have been some serious rabbits pulled outta the ol' hat.

You see 2 more wins on the remaining schedule?

I was thinking two years ago and specifically against LMU. Two wins in conference and then the damned loss to them in the tourney.

Yeah, I have a baseless hope the Pilots will catch USD off guard at home and then beat LMU in the 8/9 game. There's two wins right there and even that would be a significant accomplishment at this point.

It's tough seeing us win another game other than a first round WCC matchup with LMU. I see no more regular season wins, but I guess it's possible - but unlikely to be honest, especially when we can't beat Pepperdine at home.

I'm pretty curious to see what happens in the next six months of UP basketball. At this point I don't think anything would surprise me. I could really see this being Rev's final year. I could also see him getting another year. At this point I'm just frustrated with pretty much every aspect of this program. Maybe seeing the next two games live will change my opinion.

DTLegend wrote:I'm pretty curious to see what happens in the next six months of UP basketball. At this point I don't think anything would surprise me. I could really see this being Rev's final year. I could also see him getting another year. At this point I'm just frustrated with pretty much every aspect of this program. Maybe seeing the next two games live will change my opinion.

What's troubling is that there really isn't much to look forward to next season except for the Cason scholarship, assuming the coaches do something positive with it. Losing Rogers, which wouldn't have seemed detrimental a season ago, now gives me heart palpitations.

Carr's road back will be long and steep. One has to assume that it will be at least mid season before he's back to playing his game which, if we're being honest, isn't the reason that we're not sitting atop the WCC- contrary to Rev's spin.

Once again we'll have to turn over responsibility for controlling the tempo, getting guys involved, cutting down turnovers, etc to a freshman. No need to elaborate on that...

Still convinced that we're using the guards wrong. There doesn't seem to be enough ball movement and too much emphasis on forcing the ball inside. Will that change? Probably not.

One positive is that we get Ryan back. But with the same stale offense and no experienced, knock down shooters, his role will be even more difficult. And I know this unpopular to say here but we'll never be in the top half of the conference with Ryan as our leading scorer. He's too limited offensively and good teams will know how to stop him (or at the least, slow him down).

So what am I missing? Where are the bright spots?

If Rev is back next year, he and his staff have to get a better plan to mitigate the team's weaknesses, particularly on offense.

The inside out game worked great when we had guys like Sikma and Stohl and Smeulders. Barker and Van der Mars simply are not strong enough to win a post battle with most of the rest of the big guys in the conference and Stohl ain't walking through the door (ok, I know he literally walked into the Chiles Center a few weeks back, but you know what I mean).

They really need to push the pace and force the issue. This team just isn't good enough to attempt to run an inside out offense against Gonzaga or St. Mary's...or pretty much anybody. Going up temp may not lead to more wins, but I think it better fits the current roster and would certainly be more exciting than watching everyone stand around off the ball and chuck up desperation jumpers.

Of course having said that, Barker and van der Mars will come back next season having gained 25 pounds of muscle each, and everyone will have figured out how to stop and pop with accuracy from the three point line, thus rendering everything I have said moot. Hopefully.

One positive is that we get Ryan back. But with the same stale offense and no experienced, knock down shooters, his role will be even more difficult. And I know this unpopular to say here but we'll never be in the top half of the conference with Ryan as our leading scorer. He's too limited offensively and good teams will know how to stop him (or at the least, slow him down).

I don't think that its unpopular. I feel the same way. Ryan was never supposed to be the leading scorer on the team in my opinion. At this point all we can really look forward to is improvement internally from multiple players. If we really want to compete next year we need a lot of things to go right basically:
Alec to be a solid, solid guard that has somewhat of a consistent shot and doesn't turn the ball over and can push the ball on the break
Kevin to embrace his role as a go-to guy and consistently score 15-20
Ryan to be the player he is now. Grab rebounds, score from the 3, etc. Also, be a Leader.
Oskars and Bryce need to continue on their development. Mainly bring energy.
Thomas and Riley, gain some consistency so that night in, night out we're getting points, rebounds, toughness.
Korey we need energy off the bench. We need a solid slasher and a solid defensive stopper.
Tanner, I can ask for consistent shooting but who knows.
Our last scholarship will hopefully go to someone who can contribute immediately. At this point we could use help at any position so it could be any position really.

If EVERYTHING goes right, I could see us winning 19-20 games maybe? More realistic prediction could be 13-14 games. If everything goes wrong it may be 8-9.

I think the bright spot at this point is to think that they have to be better than they are this year right?

Wow - 19-20 games? I know you said if EVERYTHING goes right, but I honestly can't see that even if everything doesn't go right. As you said, the only real change is Rogers leaving and that lost scholarship, which I sure hope is a VERY good player who might be able to contribute some immediately - especially on offense and hopefully at PG. That's asking for a lot though. It's tough to convince people to come here when you're losing and the recruits don't know if you will be hear next year of two years from now.

This is really a tough spot for Reveno because of the way the recruiting classes have shaken out - really unbalanced. I don't envy the position these coaches are in right now - a LOT of pressure on them right now and not many bright spots to look forward to in the immediate future. Their just going to somehow get more out of the players that have and really focus on getting the best possible recruit with that last spot. I'm just skeptical whether that will be enough to bring the wins needed to keep their jobs after 2013-14. I do think Rev will get a one year extension, but you never know. I really have no feel for the new AD at all.

Here's my logic, I'm going to assume we are better next year just because we're only losing Rodgers. I say that alone gives us +4 or 5 wins. That puts us around .500. If EVERYTHING, I mean EVERYTHING (no injuries, each player progresses more than expected this summer, our last scholarship goes to a player with an immediate impact, easier schedule, ect.) I think we can push out an additional 4 or 5 wins.

Well, we won't be playing Kentucky. And maybe we'll get Montana St. at home.

up7587 wrote:Well, we won't be playing Kentucky. And maybe we'll get Montana St. at home.

You are correct on both.....UK is done with us, and we have a home-and-home with MSU.

.....and of course we'll see Tim Douglas at the Stotts Center. Remember how he lit up PSU for 27 at the Stotts his freshman year? Hard to believe now, but it was just two years ago that everything was looking so rosy for the Pilots.

DTLegend wrote:Here's my logic, I'm going to assume we are better next year just because we're only losing Rodgers. I say that alone gives us +4 or 5 wins. That puts us around .500. If EVERYTHING, I mean EVERYTHING (no injuries, each player progresses more than expected this summer, our last scholarship goes to a player with an immediate impact, easier schedule, ect.) I think we can push out an additional 4 or 5 wins.

Sounds like you and the coaches have the same game plan. Since we're listing our "pie in the sky" wishes can I throw one out there for Shabazz Muhammad to transfer from UCLA and become a Pilot?

newpilotfan wrote: can I throw one out there for Shabazz Muhammad to transfer from UCLA and become a Pilot?

Don't think his grades are good enough.

PurpleGeezer wrote:

newpilotfan wrote: can I throw one out there for Shabazz Muhammad to transfer from UCLA and become a Pilot?

Don't think his grades are good enough.

And he'll have to sit out for a year. So Reveno will have to make the turnaround happen without him.

How can you figure guys will improve more than expected, when they are getting worse, not better? Was anyone there when Tanner Riley was a freshman? Remember the little mini tourney we hosted? He was all tourney...coming off the bench shooting the ball. Rev has beat him down and now he can't make a shot. Did you see UP play Kentucky at the Rose Garden? Barker made one of our few first half baskets, when he stepped into a pass at top of key and sank it. Now, he stands there looking around at the crowd as everyone yells for him to shoot. Thielke? Great athlete, hasn't improved basketball skills during his time here. And on and on and on... So much for waiting for the staff to coach guys up.
How about recruiting? Typically, the ass'ts beat the bushes to find players and get them interested. Since not one of Rev's ass'ts has been poached, I conclude none of them is anything special. I think it's pretty safe to assume we don't pay them as well as other schools pay, so if they were in demand, someone would have moved on by now.
Coach Holton lasted 1 year as Chavez' ass't before getting a Pac 10 job. Heck the only change in Rev's tenure was Coach Sobotka going to Valley Catholic. A real sign of a sinking ship.
It won't do much good to replace the Coach (though IMHO they should) unless they budget in enough to upgrade the quality of Assistant Coach. Given me at least one Name. Someone who played D1 somewhere at the highest level and can recruit. Example, Jefferson's Michael Lee is at USF, through the UK connection, even though Rex Walters was well before him. Also, I want someone connected locally. Troy Berry, Pat Strickland, Lamaar Hunt or Canaan.

I liked your previous take better

https://www.pilotnation.net/t4455-brainstorming-time-what-can-we-do#44839

PurpleGeezer wrote:

newpilotfan wrote: can I throw one out there for Shabazz Muhammad to transfer from UCLA and become a Pilot?

Don't think his grades are good enough.

DoubleDipper wrote:Hmm, good article from Nick.

I can tell you this, UP President Fr. Bill Beauchamp is not happy with the state of the program considering the amount of money and emphasis it has been given.

money and emphasis as compared to whom?

PurpleGeezer wrote:

DoubleDipper wrote:Hmm, good article from Nick.

I can tell you this, UP President Fr. Bill Beauchamp is not happy with the state of the program considering the amount of money and emphasis it has been given.

money and emphasis as compared to whom?

In this case, compared to what money and emphasis the program was given prior to Larry Williams, and then the increases UP has given the men’s program each year since Larry's arrival in an effort to bring the program (and UP) to prominence.

UP does not have a large endowment, and much of the operating cost of the university comes from student tuition, so to have a comparatively large junk of change given to the men's basketball program may mean some other part(s) of UP are getting less or at least not getting the same increased support.

In essence, the students are the actual stock holders in the programs at UP!

Most shareholders have voting rights, students do not, else the great financial support of the program might not have gained the approval that it has.

I might be naive, but I am hoping that a good point guard and a consistent shooter will improve the fortunes of the team next year.

Are we the Cub fans of the WCC?

We've got to show some willingness to try something new on the court if we expect more success next year. 1 player will not push us into the top half of the WCC. If Wintering is forcing telegraphed passes down low...(please, no more!) next year may look worse.

Other programs are making large strides. I've enjoyed watching them play We have to make a decision to do the same. The guys are giving great effort. Let's direct that towards a different, more successful scheme!

wrv wrote:

Are we the Cub fans of the WCC?

I think the school once had a Billy Goat to clear the weeds on bluff, so maybe there's something to that.

DoubleDipper wrote:

PurpleGeezer wrote:

DoubleDipper wrote:Hmm, good article from Nick.

I can tell you this, UP President Fr. Bill Beauchamp is not happy with the state of the program considering the amount of money and emphasis it has been given.

money and emphasis as compared to whom?

In this case, compared to what money and emphasis the program was given prior to Larry Williams, and then the increases UP has given the men’s program each year since Larry's arrival in an effort to bring the program (and UP) to prominence.

UP does not have a large endowment, and much of the operating cost of the university comes from student tuition, so to have a comparatively large junk of change given to the men's basketball program may mean some other part(s) of UP are getting less or at least not getting the same increased support.

In essence, the students are the actual stock holders in the programs at UP!

We aren't competing against UP teams from before Larry Wiiliams showed up. This team could probably beat all of those teams, including the team we sent to the tournament.

We are now competing against the likes of a Gonzaga team that spends over 30% of its budget on basketball, and it's budget is about three times ours. We spend 17% on basketball.

You can go right down he WCC stable of schools, and our money and emphasis is near the bottom.

wrv wrote:Most shareholders have voting rights, students do not, else the great financial support of the program might not have gained the approval that it has.

Heh heh, good point.....

I bet if the students were asked to choose between less expensive tuition and D-1 basketball the vote would be overwhelming in favor of dropping to D-2 or D-3. It was discussed during my time as a student at UP as a means to cut costs.