2015-2016 Schedule--Rumors & Facts

The WCC schedule was released this morning!

Here's the press release: http://www.wccsports.com/news/wcc-men-s-basketball-2015-16-schedule-released-08-17-2015

The Pilots start at home against LMU on Dec. 21, Pepperdine on Dec. 23. We're than at USF on New Year's Eve. We end the season on the road at BYU and then San Diego.

Notable home dates: BYU on Jan. 16, Gonzaga on Feb. 11, SMC on February 18.

UP's semester starts on January 11, which means that students will only miss 2 conference home games this year. That is great news!

For the second straight year, we have no more than 3 games in a row either on the road or at home. So, good job to the conference on that front. (BYU and USD have 4 in a row on the road, followed by 4 in a row at home in the middle of the conference schedule.)

UP's full 2015-16 is now posted HERE on the WCC's page (but not yet on UP's own page).

The schedule on the WCC page would be more useful if it didn't add all the non- conference games to your calendar as "NEW EVENT"

Geezaldinho wrote:The schedule on the WCC page would be more useful if it didn't add all the non- conference games to your calendar as "NEW EVENT"

I used a pen, had no problems.

up7587 wrote:

I used a pen, had no problems.

That's so last millennium.

NoPoNeighbor wrote:UP's full 2015-16 is now posted HERE on the WCC's page (but not yet on UP's own page).

So there you have it...full schedule finally out.

Any guesses as to how the Pilots do this year?

Kenpom will project a 9-4 or 8-5 record in non-conference and standard 7-11 or 6-12 finish in WCC. So looking at projection of 14-16 wins heading into Vegas.

The schedule now shows the first game in Corpus Christi against Colorado State. Winner plays the winner of UTEP vs Southern Illinois.

The conference has announced the games that will be nationally televised by ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU:

http://www.wccsports.com/news/wcc-announces-2015-16-espn-networks-men-s-basketball-telecast-schedule-09-02-2015

Of the 30 pre-WCC-Tournament games, UP appears in four. This is up from only one game out of 39 last year. Interestingly, two of the Pilots' four appearances will come against Pepperdine (in Portland on 12/23, in Malibu on 2/4). The others are at home against Gonzaga (2/11) and at BYU (2/25).

The WCC press release specifically points out that Portland and Pepperdine are receiving increased coverage on ESPN this season.

Besides the two UP-PU games, there is only one other regular season conference game on the ESPN networks that does not involved either Gonzaga or BYU (Pacific at Saint Mary's on Jan. 14).

The WCC broadcast schedule (league games) is here:

http://portlandpilots.com/news/2015/10/7/MBB_1007154943.aspx

I didn't know where to put this, but I see Pacific has banned itself from the postseason for this year including the WCC tourney.

Wonder how that will affect the bracket format for Vegas? I suppose is the obvious answer is that the bracket stays as is with 2v7, 3v6, 4v5 and 1v8/9, but the WCC had the double-bye system in place the last time the conference had nine teams.

Terry Cahill wrote:I didn't know where to put this, but I see Pacific has banned itself from the postseason for this year including the WCC tourney.

Wonder how that will affect the bracket format for Vegas? I suppose is the obvious answer is that the bracket stays as is with 2v7, 3v6, 4v5 and 1v8/9, but the WCC had the double-bye system in place the last time the conference had nine teams.

I would think the format would stay the same and Pacific would simply forfeit their first game, wherever that happens to be in the bracket. Right now KenPom has them as the 7th best team. If that play's out, team 10 would get a pass in the play in game. Might make for some interesting strategy late in the season.

The WCC has a long history of reseeding.

blacksheep wrote:I would think the format would stay the same and Pacific would simply forfeit their first game, wherever that happens to be in the bracket.  Right now KenPom has them as the 7th best team.  If that play's out, team 10 would get a pass in the play in game.  Might make for some interesting strategy late in the season.

So if Pacific finishes first in the regular season (ha!) the eighth-place team gets a bye to the WCC semifinals?

Hmmm, it seems to me they would have to stick with the same bracket, due to the TV arrangements that are already in place (LINK).

My guess is that they will keep the same bracket, and in the final WCC standings, they will just remove PAC, and move everyone below them up a seed, so there will be seeds #1-9, and seeds #1-7 will get a first round bye and #8 will play #9 in the only play-in game (as opposed to #7 vs #10 and #8 vs #9 in the previous bracket).

That's the sensible and likely solution, yeah.

But if it comes down to a fan vote, I'm going with Blacksheep's. Dangle a random carrot out there for some lucky team come early March!

Maybe The Orleans Casino could have a shiny Wheel of Fortune spin to see which team gets a bye in the first round?

Pilots' record is 2-4 in games in which the margin was five points or less at any time from 5:00 remaining through the end of the game:

L vs SIU
W vs PSU
L vs Boise
L vs ISU
L vs Weber
W vs Fullerton

Yea, and 3 of those losses were woulda/coulda/shoulda games that game down to the last shot.

The only clear winner was Boise St...and even then the Pilots had a chance late.

UPDATE: The Pilots' record is 2-6 in games in which the margin was five points or less at any time from 5:00 remaining through the end of the game:

L vs SIU
W vs PSU
L vs Boise
L vs ISU
L vs Weber
W vs Fullerton
L vs USF
L vs SCU

NoPoNeighbor wrote:UPDATE: The Pilots' record is 2-6 in games in which the margin was five points or less at any time from 5:00 remaining through the end of the game:

There's been a lot of griping on here about lack of performance late and/or in close games. To see if it was "message board lunacy" or legitimate, I took a look at in-game Kenpom odds (available since 2012) which saw either team have a 90% or better chance of winning at any point during the game, but ended up losing. Results are five entries going in the "unlikely wins" category since then, and 11 going in the "unlikely losses" category. (Counting WCC regular season only, there's four in each so conference play is a wash)

As you can see, some are on this list because of true late-game collapses (road loss to Pacific last year was the worst, apparently) and some are more a factor of being up on a team they were already favored to beat (like the Montana State and *belch* UTPA losses).

COLLAPSES
2.0% - Pacific, 2/21/2015 (up 64-56, 2:16 left)
2.1% - North Texas, 11/23/2013 (up 34-20, 16:40 left)
2.2% - Montana State, 12/15/2013 (up 26-15, 25:50 left)
2.7% - Loyola Marymount, 3/6/2014 (up 48-35, 10:49 left)
3.5% - UNLV, 12/17/2014 (up 61-53, 3:00 left)
4.5% - Idaho State, 12/8/2015 (up 54-47, 6:45 left)
4.5% - UTPA, 12/29/2012 (up 21-14, 23:24 left)
5.3% - San Francisco, 12/31/2015 (up 80-66, 13:09 left)
6.1% - San Francisco, 12/28/2013 (up 69-66, 0:09 left)
7.7% - Weber State, 12/18/2015 (up 72-70, 0:10 left)
9.5% - Oregon State, 12/6/2014 (up 37-30, 14:54 left)

COMEBACKS
2.2% - BYU, 1/23/2014 (down 99-91, 2:39 left in 2OT)
3.5% - San Diego, 12/27/2014 (down 58-52, 2:47 left)
4.6% - San Francisco, 2/14/2013 (down 13-7, 35:27 left)
5.6% - Loyola Marymount, 1/12/2013 (down 36-25, 18:14 left)
8.5% - San Jose State, 11/16/2014 (down 50-37, 10:42 left)

Terry Cahill wrote:There's been a lot of griping on here about lack of performance late and/or in close games. To see if it was "message board lunacy" or legitimate, I took a look at in-game Kenpom odds (available since 2012) which saw either team have a 90% or better chance of winning at any point during the game, but ended up losing.

Terry... these statistics do not address the issue that you say you want to investigate. As you say, there is griping (largely by myself) about "lack of performance late and/or in close games." But your attempt to fact-check this griping looks neither at late-game performance, nor at close-game performance.

The stats you cite deal with giving up significant leads, not performance late in close games. This is also a worrisome issue, but it is not the same one you set out to investigate. In fact, in some ways it is the opposite. You are looking at games in which one team has a 90% chance of winning, at any point during the game. I have been explicitly discussing games in which there is a realistic chance for either team to win within the last five minutes.

You are talking about "collapses" at any point during a game. I am talking about ability to win games that are within reach in the last five minutes. (There are certainly games in which these two concerns overlap, but that does not mean that they are the same thing.)

UPDATE: The Pilots' record is 3-6 in games in which the margin was five points or less at any time from 5:00 remaining through the end of the game:

L vs SIU (neutral)
W at PSU
L vs Boise
L vs ISU
L vs Weber
W vs Fullerton
L at USF
L at SCU
W vs BYU

UPDATE: The Pilots' record is 3-7 (1-3 WCC) in games in which the margin was five points or less at any time from 5:00 remaining through the end of the game:

L vs SIU (neutral)
W at PSU
L vs Boise
L vs ISU
L vs Weber
W vs Fullerton
L at USF
L at SCU
W vs BYU
L at Pacific

UPDATE: The Pilots' record is 3-8 (1-4 WCC) in games in which the margin was five points or less at any time from 5:00 remaining through the end of the game:

L vs SIU (neutral)
W at PSU
L vs Boise
L vs ISU
L vs Weber
W vs Fullerton
L at USF
L at SCU
W vs BYU
L at Pacific
L vs USF

NoPoNeighbor wrote:UPDATE: The Pilots' record is 3-8 (1-4 WCC) in games in which the margin was five points or less at any time from 5:00 remaining through the end of the game:

L vs SIU (neutral)
W at PSU
L vs Boise
L vs ISU
L vs Weber
W vs Fullerton
L at USF
L at SCU
W vs BYU
L at Pacific
L vs USF

Does it make any difference if the margin was 5 points down vs 5 points up?

Our new radio guy Jason Swygard was noting the scoreless stretches to open both halves, 2:15 in the 1st and 4:45 in the 2nd in the postgame comments. USF scored 10 points in that time, basically the margin in the game. In the 2nd half the Pilots scored only 4 points in the first 9-1/2 minutes; by then they were down 14 despite USF starting the half shooting not near as well as they did in the 1st. Credit to the team for fighting back to get within 5 points, but pretty hard to win when you are always coming back from a big deficit.

All USF starters were in double figures, along with one sub. 3 Pilot starters totaled 13 points, and a key sub had zero points.