WCC Tourney Seeding

I figured I would start a topic with my back of envelope calculations for the remaining 3 WCC games.  I will start with the current standings:

Team--WCC Record--Remaining WCC Schedule:
GON: 13-2; SMC, @USD, @BYU
SMC: 12-3; @GON, SCU, @USF (interestingly, SMC also plays Grand Canyon on 3/1 in Moraga)
BYU: 11-4; USD, POR, GON
PEP: 9-7; SCU, bye, @LMU
USF: 8-7; @LMU, @PAC, SMC
SCU: 6-9; @PEP, @SMC, PAC
POR: 5-10; PAC, @BYU, @USD
PAC: 5-10; @POR, USF, @SCU (not eligible for WCC tourney, so I am not including them below)
LMU: 4-12; USF, bye, PEP
USD: 3-12; @BYU, GON, POR

GON & SMC are in a real battle for the 1 & 2 seeds, with the Saturday result likely determining the regular season champ.  If SMC wins in Spokane, GON could fall to as far as 3rd if they also lose to BYU (BYU would have the tiebreaker).

BYU seems likely to earn the 3rd seed, unless GON loses to both BYU & SMC (not out of the realm of possibility).

Pepp & USF are duking it out for 4 & 5, but Pepp has the easier route to 4 with the more favorable schedule and a half game lead.

SCU is in 6th place. It will be difficult for POR to pass SCU, as SCU has a 1 game lead and the tiebreaker (season sweep). POR & PEP wins on Saturday could make that race more interesting.

POR & LMU are battling for 7 & 8, but the edge here is in the Rose City, with the Pilots holding a 1 game lead and the tiebreaker (season sweep). PAC's misfortune may just give the Pilots a break from playing on the first day in the WCC tourney.

USD seems destined for 9th seed, with the worst record and toughest remaining schedule.

So, the only real seeding drama at this point is SMC & GON... that should make for a whale of a game in Spokane tomorrow (7pm, ESPN2). A win by SMC would tie the records and give SMC the tiebreaker (season sweep). A GON win likely earns the #1 seed, even with a loss next week @BYU.

I started noodling this a week ago. I felt that if UP could beat UOP and USD, they could pass SCU for #6. SCU's road win at LMU put a real ding in my projections. I figured them to lose the road games at PU and SMC, but now they'll need to also lose at home to UOP (possible but less likely) to be vulnerable to dropping.

I can't see LMU catching UP; that would require them to win out, and UP to lose out. Suicide watch if that happens. A win Saturday and UP is locked into #7 or better.

I think it'll finish 1-2-3 in the current order; as long as Wiltjer is playing in conference he's unstoppable. That would likely match UP with SMC again.

As frustrating as the Pilots are for their own fans, I don't think either SMC or BYU want to see them in the first round.

Updates:

Team--WCC Record--Remaining WCC Schedule:
SMC: 13-3; SCU, @USF. SMC holds the tiebreaker, and the easier schedule as GON still has to head to Provo.
GON: 13-3; @USD, @BYU. Zags will now have to beat BYU to avoid falling to 3rd place, unless the Pilots pull off the upset Thursday.
BYU: 12-4; POR, GON. The Cougars can finish no worse than 3rd.
PEP: 10-7; bye, @LMU. Likely #4 seed.
USF: 8-8; @PAC, SMC. Likely #5 seed. Too tired to look and see who has the tiebreaker, USF or SCU.
SCU: 6-10; @SMC, PAC. SCU holds the tiebreaker over the Pilots, but them going 0-2 next week is not out of the question if PAC gets it together.
POR: 6-10; @BYU, @USD. Pilots cannot finish lower than 7th place, 6th still possible.
PAC: 5-11; USF, @SCU (not eligible for WCC tourney)
LMU: 5-12; bye, PEP. 8th seed, unless USD pulls off a miracle next weekend
USD: 3-13; GON, POR. Needs to sweep next weekend to avoid cellar (and earn the tiebreak by means of a W over GON).

The good news is that UP will not play in the play-in game (thanks to there only being 1 this year). The #7 seed plays #2, and #6 plays #3 on Saturday. I have to think we would prefer to play BYU in Vegas, and beating them Thursday makes that much more likely.

How about this? UP wins at USD, SCU loses out, UP reaches the #6 seed (yay), and faces a #3 GU in the opening game (what?).

Updates after tonight, with 1 game to go:

Team--WCC Record--Remaining WCC Schedule:
SMC: 14-3; @USF. SMC holds the tiebreaker over GU (season sweep), but I think BYU holds the tiebreaker over SMC due to PEP sweeping SMC.
GON: 14-3; @BYU. Zags have to beat BYU to avoid falling to 3rd place.
BYU: 13-4; GON. With a win on Saturday, BYU would earn the 2nd seed, and 1st seed if SMC also loses.
PEP: 10-7; @LMU. Locked into the #4 seed.
USF: 8-9; SMC. Locked into #5 seed.
SCU: 6-11; PAC. SCU holds the tiebreaker over the Pilots.
POR: 6-11; @USD. Pilots cannot finish lower than 7th place (tiebreaker over LMU), and would earth 6th seed with a win and SCU loss.
PAC: 6-11; @SCU (not eligible for WCC tourney)
LMU: 5-12; PEP. Locked into #8 seed.
USD: 3-14; POR. Locked into #9 seed.

So... it still comes down to the big game in Provo: BYU vs. GU on Saturday.

The Pilots will play SMC, GON or BYU in the opening round, but with each as which seed is still TBD.

LMU and USD will play in the play-in game. Pepp has earned the #4 seed, USF #5.

What are predictions for Saturday? BYU is playing strong offense now... but if GON brings their "A" game, I think they have the edge.... but if BYU hits shots (like tonight) and the crowd is in the game, watch out... SMC will be playing for a WCC championship and USF has "nothing" to play for... will USF show up?

Based on how USF lost to UOP tonight, who really had nothing to play for, I doubt USF will do much, even though it is a rivalry game, and at USF.

Will Maupin keeps talking about LMU escaping the play-in game. Is there a way UP ends up the #8 seed in a multi-team tie at 6-12 records. UP has the head-to-head tiebreaker, so how could LMU move up?

I asked. If we win and SCU loses, LMU could leap over SCU and Keating's team would play in the opener (wouldn't that be a shame!)

PilotNut wrote:I asked.  If we win and SCU loses, LMU could leap over SCU and Keating's team would play in the opener (wouldn't that be a shame!)

Thanks. So we'd be #6 at 7-11, LMU #7 at 6-12, and SCU #8 at 6-12. I'd go for that.

Three way tie in conference standings between UP, UOP and LMU at 6-12, for 7th place. Against the others, UP is 3-1, UOP is 2-2, and LMU is 1-3. Therefore, I believe UP gets the #7 tourney seed, UOP self-disqualifies, and LMU is the #8 seed.

Per the WCC web site:
Should there be a tie in the final regular season standings, the following will be used to break the tie for tournament seeding purposes:
1) Head-to-head results
2) Results vs. other teams in descending order of finish
3) RPI (Collegiate Basketball News RPI)
*In the case of multiple ties, the one which can be resolved

Yup, the #7, UP, will play the #2, Gonzaga,....probably around 8:30 or so on Saturday night on ESPN2.

That's not official, but....

Final seeding for the tourney:
1 SMC
2 GON
3 BYU
4 PEP
5 USF
6 SCU
7 POR
8 LMU
9 USD

I have to tip my cap to SMC and USF... who thought those 2 would do that well this year?

SMC gets USD/LMU winner, GON vs POR, BYU vs SCU, PEP vs USF.

It has been a long time since we have played GON in the WCC tourney (mostly because we rarely advance)... but lets hope our shooting woes fix themselves quickly. Interesting note: had PAC been involved in this tournament, we would have had to play USD in a play-in game; that would not be a good thing with how they seem to be able to play against us this year.

He77, we've looked better against GU than USD, so bring them on.

DoubleDipper wrote:Yup, the #7, UP, will play the #2, Gonzaga,....probably around 8:30 or so on Saturday night on ESPN2.

That's not official, but....

Now it's official.....start time is scheduled for 9PM (although Comcast is showing 9:30) on ESPN2!

A Portland win would almost assuredly send Gonzaga to the NIT.

Uhh, I'm not certain if I've ever wanted a Pilots win more badly than this coming Friday.

Terry Cahill wrote:.....Uhh, I'm not certain if I've ever wanted a Pilots win more badly than this coming Friday.

So, Saturday night at 9 in Las Vegas is still Friday in Regina? #internationaldateline  

Dammit. We don't have daylight savings time here but I can't even blame this on that! I seriously thought it was Friday.

Whatever, I still want the Pilots to send Gonzaga packing to the NIT.

FRIDAY:
6 p.m. - #8 Loyola Marymount Lions vs.9 San Diego Toreros

SATURDAY:
1 p.m. - #3 BYU Cougars vs. #6 Santa Clara Broncos

3:30 p.m. - #4 Pepperdine Waves vs. #5 San Francisco Dons

7 p.m. - #1 St. Mary's Gaels vs. Game 1 Winner #8 Loyola/#9 San Diego, ESPN2

9:30 p.m. - #2 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. #7 Portland ilots, ESPN2

DoubleDipper wrote:

SATURDAY:
1 p.m. - #3 BYU Cougars vs. #6 Santa Clara Broncos

3:30 p.m. - #4 Pepperdine Waves vs. #5 San Francisco Dons

7 p.m. - #1 St. Mary's Gaels vs. Game 1 Winner #8 Loyola/#9 San Diego, ESPN2

9:30 p.m. - #2 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. #7 Portland ilots, ESPN2

That's a full day of basketball! What's the policy on readmittance to the games? Last time I was in Vegas, once you left the area you couldn't get back.

Same as past years at the Orleans, the tickets are good for sessions:

Thursday:  Women's Session 1 (2 games in the afternoon), and Women's Session 2 (2 games in the evening).
Friday: Women's Session 3 (2 games in the afternoon) and Men's Session 1 (1 game at 6pm)
Saturday: Men's Session 2 (2 games in the afternoon; 1 and 3:30) and Men's Session 3 (2 games in the evening; 7 and 9:30).
Monday: Women's semi-finals (2 games in the afternoon) and Men's semi-finals (2 games in the evening; 6 and 8:30)

The Orleans Arena is supposed to be cleared of all spectators between sessions, but it's a pretty small gap between the sessions on Thursday and Saturday.

REMINDER:  FREE FOOD and DRINK for Pilots Fans provided by the Office of Alumni Relations 90 minutes prior to ALL of UP's Men's and Women's Games in the Upper Concourse of the Orleans Arena.  (Probably on the right side as you enter and all the way to the back).

DoubleDipper wrote:REMINDER:  FREE FOOD and DRINK for Pilots Fans provided by the Office of Alumni Relations 90 minutes prior to ALL of UP's Men's and Women's Games in the Upper Concourse of the Orleans Arena.  (Probably on the right side as you enter and all the way to the back).

You can usually grab a little swag, too.

These pre-game gatherings are great... I encourage those in Vegas to peel themselves away from the tables and swing by; there is usually plenty of food & beverage. This is the 2nd year with the concourse location in the arena--you are on the end of the concourse, so you can easily poke your head into the arena to keep tabs on the 7pm game. This is a great improvement over the previous locations.

PilotNut wrote:These pre-game gatherings are great...  I encourage those in Vegas to peel themselves away from the tables and swing by; there is usually plenty of food & beverage.  This is the 2nd year with the concourse location in the arena--you are on the end of the concourse, so you can easily poke your head into the arena to keep tabs on the 7pm game.  This is a great improvement over the previous locations.  

If they had a blackjack table at the pre-game gathering, I might never leave!

blacksheep wrote:If they had a blackjack table at the pre-game gathering, I might never leave!

Hmm, that's something to think about for next year....but I have a sneaking suspicion that Nevada, the NCAA, and the WCC would frown on the idea.

No stakes Gin Rummy anyone?