2021-22 Season

Dean Murdoch wrote:Riverside over Arizona State… hmmmmm

Geezaldinho wrote:

Dean Murdoch wrote:Riverside over Arizona State… hmmmmm

We tired them out?

Reddit wrote:First ASU hit a shot with 1.7, UCR attempted a quick inbound and they blew it dead for no reason whatsoever went to the clock to see if they could add more time, which they added none but gave UC Riverside a free timeout to setup their inbounds.

Then UCR inbounded and it went out of bounds off UCR but they started the clock before it touched anyone so they had another redo.

Then he hit the shot on the 3rd inbound.

DoubleDipper wrote:Coach Hayford was placed on administrative leave yesterday...meaning their 'secret scrimmage might have been the first and last time the two coach's teams will compete on a D1 basketball court....especially if Hayford's players are refusing to play for him.

FloridaPilot wrote:Good luck athletics employees (and athletes)!

5) Portland Pilots
Record: 8–3
Previous: 7th
KenPom: 294th; NET: 236th
Last week: W 78–77 vs. Cal Poly
This week: 12/15 at Oregon, 12/17 vs. San Jose State, 12/19 at Montana State

Okay, let’s be blunt about this: Portland hasn’t beaten anyone of consequence. They are 7–1 in Quad 4. Their other two D1 games? Quad 3 losses. That’s one of the least impressive 8–3 records you’ll see.

But, and this is a massive but, the Pilots are actually winning the games they’re playing. The same can not be said about any of the teams below them. Credit where it is due, and that credit lies with new coach Shantay Legans.

Will they keep this up in WCC play? Hard to say. While I just told BYU fans not to lose hope, if I’m a Pilot fan I wouldn’t hold out much hope that this is sustainable … this year at least. Legans built EWU into an NCAA Tournament team two years running (they’d have made it in 2020 had it happened). With how top heavy the WCC is, I’m not sure he can pull that off, but he clearly won’t pilot the team into the Willamette.

Also, this is a massive week for Portland. They played Cal Poly on Monday, then travel to Oregon on Wednesday, then back home for San Jose State on Friday, then to Montana State for a rematch of one of their three losses on Sunday. It’s a four game week, with an instate rival and a grudge match on the docket. A winning record here would be reason to celebrate like they haven’t in ages on The Bluff.

NoPoNeighbor wrote:If the Pilots play as well as they did on Saturday against San Francisco, there are five realistically winnable games remaining on the schedule: home against LMU, SCU, USD, and Pepperdine; and on the road at Pacific.

5) Portland Pilots
Record: 16–12 (6–6)
KenPom: 185th; NET: 186th
Last week: W 84–39 vs. Bushnell (NAIA), W 92–60 vs. San Diego, W 77–74 vs. Pepperdine
This week: 2/24 at Pacific, 2/26 at Santa Clara

The Pilots have won five straight games for the second time this season. They’ve won four straight WCC games as well, which is something they haven’t done since 2015. They sit here with six wins in league play, with two games to go. In five seasons under Terry Porter, the Pilots managed just seven league wins total. Regardless of what happens in their final two games, the Pilots are guaranteed to finish with their best league winning percentage since going .500 back in 2011.

Granted, they’ve done this with the second easiest schedule in the league, per KenPom, behind only Gonzaga — the Zags, by virtue of not being able to play themselves, always have the easiest path through WCC play. The Pilots have just one game each against Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, BYU and Santa Clara this season. That said, you play the teams that are put in front of you, and Portland’s done that even when some of the teams put in front of them (cough-Santa Clara-cough) have backed out of their games. When the Broncos pulled out of last week’s make-up game, Portland went out and found an NAIA school from Eugene to play instead. No, it isn’t as cool as when San Francisco and Loyola-Chicago put together a last-second game, but the spirit is the same. Portland wants to play, and when they play they tend to win.
It’s more than just the on court results, though. It’s the entire culture in Portland. Shantay Legans is fired up on the sidelines, the players are jacked up right there with him, and the fans are starting to return to the Chiles Center (one of the more underrated mid-major venues around). There’s a winning mentality on The Bluff that hasn’t been there in a decade, and it’s rubbing off on everyone around the program. Even the Pilots’ official Twitter account is feeling the winning ways.

The Pilots were 329th in KenPom at the start of the season. They’ve climbed all the way to 185th now. Sure, that’s a lot lower than the team I have right below them, but it is a clear illustration of just how fast this program is moving in the right direction. There is serious momentum building in Portland, which looks ready to compete in the WCC for the first time in a decade. That’s the exact opposite of what’s happening at the program below, which is heading in the wrong direction in advance of moving to a better league.

6) BYU Cougars
Record: 19–9 (7–6)
KenPom: 52nd; NET: 55th
Last week: L 69–64 at Saint Mary’s
This week: 2/24 vs. LMU, 2/26 vs. Pepperdine

Do I think BYU is the sixth best team in the WCC? Not necessarily. Do I think they’re anything higher than fifth best, though? No.

The reason I have them in sixth, then, below Portland, has less to do with the teams’ talent, body of work and ability relative to each other and more to do with how those compare to the expectations both for these two programs, and especially in BYU’s case, the expectations within their own program.

No matter what happens in the Cougars’ final two games of the regular season, whether they win both, drop both or split them, BYU is guaranteed to have its worst conference win percentage since going 3–11 in 2005. That would also mean their worst conference win percentage as a member of the WCC.

BYU is not supposed to be anywhere near here, and yet they are.

Injuries have caught up to them. Their offense simply doesn’t work well enough and their defense has fallen off a cliff.

As it stands now, the Cougars are set to get the five seed in the WCC Tournament. That would mean they’d need four wins, including over Gonzaga in the semis, to get the automatic bid. Win out, and get some help, and the Cougars could climb to the four seed. That would give them a bye, but they’d still be on the Zags’ side of the bracket. Amazingly, the three seed is still in play if the Cougars win out AND San Francisco loses out AND Santa Clara loses out. Should that happen, the Cougars would be on the other side of the bracket from the Zags.

They could also end up on the opposite side of the bracket by falling to the six seed, which is also in play. Incredibly, the seven seed is also in play for the Cougars, though that seems far more unlikely than the unlikely scenario that would land them at the three spot. For the worst case scenario to occur, the Cougars would need to lose out AND have Portland AND San Diego win out.

There is one week left in the regular season and BYU has yet to clinch so much as a bye in the WCC Tournament. For this program to be in this position is almost unfathomable.

@willmaup wrote:
GU +35.2

USF +15
SMC +14.4

SCU +1.1
PORT -1.9
BYU -2.2

USD -8.7
LMU -14.6
PAC -17.5
PEPP -21

Geezaldinho wrote:I’m still wrapping my head around the fact that Legans just matched the entire conference win record in the Porter era and the season isn’t over

Geezaldinho wrote:I’m still wrapping my head around the fact that Legans just matched the entire conference win record in the Porter era and the season isn’t over

#317!!?

I do not expect a Coach Legans and his staff to pull off a magic act, but #317 would be only four spots up from Porter's final year according to KenPom...surely the Pilots will be better than that, don't you think?

I would expect no worse than #250, and if I am honest, I will be disappointed if the Pilots are not in the top 200 by the end of the season.

DoubleDipper wrote:Plan to refer back to this from time-to-time...

The biggest surprise of this Pilots team may be how big of a role that walk-on Chika Nduka plays.

My thought is if we keep shooting 50% from the field, 55% from threes, and 100% at the line we’ll be ok.

NoPoNeighbor wrote:Anyone know if there are any teams in the nation that have risen more in KenPom than the Pilots?

Dean Murdoch wrote:

NoPoNeighbor wrote:Anyone know if there are any teams in the nation that have risen more in KenPom than the Pilots?

Middle Tennessee and Towson, both up 173 in the Kenpoms since the start of the year.

Portland is #3 at +148.

At the other end of the spectrum, shoutout to Pacific, LMU, and Pepperdine for all being in the top 10 of Kenpom fallers in the country.

heatcheckcbb.com wrote:Towson Tigers
Some of us are old enough to remember when Towson was the lovable loser of college basketball. In Pat Skerry’s first year with the Tigers, Towson went 1-31. It was such a big deal that Towson had won a game that ESPN aired a highlight of its 66-61 triumph over UNCW in late January of the 2011-12 season.

Skerry, now in Year 11 with the program, has Towson up to 70th in the NET and 71st in KenPom. With a top 50 offense nationally and an aggressive rebounding unit, the Tigers have the makings of a potential Cinderella if they can capture the Colonial trophy.