Last game in 2021 - Pilots @ UC-Davis 12/22 @ 2pm

KenPom:  UP 297/UC-D 179
NET: UP 260/UC-D 135  

KenPom predicts a fast-paced game with the Aggies winning, 78-67.

UP comes into the game having lost 4 of their last 5, while UC-D has won 4 in a row including at Oregon State and a home-and-away series against Pacific.

The final score of their Dec. 19 game at Pacific was 77-67, but the Aggies led by as many as 26 in that game as Elijah Pepper scored 25 and Ezra Manjon added 20 to lead UC Davis past the Tigers for the second time this month.

Pepper, a 6-4 sophomore guard from Selah, WA is shooting 45% from behind the arc while averaging just under 16 points.  Manjon, who put up 27 points against OSU, is a 5-11 sophomore guard averaging 14 points while hitting 41% of his threes.

The Aggies have shot over 50 percent from the field in three straight games and cleaned up what was one of their most significant weak spots during the first month of the season...rebounding.

After not winning the rebounding battle once during November, the Aggies have done it three times in their last four games by an average of just under eight rebounds per game.

It would seem the Pilots have their work cut out for them once again, but if they can get to the line with some regularity, they should be able to take advantage of their status as the #1 team in the nation at 83.1%.  

Viewing is available on the Big West streaming app. There is a 'watch' link on the Pilots web site on the schedule page for this game.

Gameday...2pm

Las Vegas is betting on the Aggies to win by at least 10 points with a 145 o/u.

Couldn't get ESPN+ going. Couldn't get 910 ESPN going.

Got some seedy stream going just in time to see a 9-0 run for Davis. I think I might be the problem here, fellas.

Pilots have fallen for the "fake shot clock countdown" from the Davis student section twice already. Let's hope that gets sorted in time for WCC play.

From the Montana State game:

Dean Murdoch wrote:Also, just noticing now Moses Wood had a grand total of zero FGAs in 20 minutes played. Wild.

At halftime today Moses has 16 points in 13 minutes of play...

UC-D had 7 fouls, but the Pilots never got to the line.  Gotta work on that!

This run by Davis is affirming my decision to start drinking at 2 PM on a Wednesday.

Dean Murdoch wrote:This run by Davis is affirming my decision to start drinking at 2 PM on a Wednesday.

And all the way back to tie it up!

Nice job by the Pilots to battle back. Can they close one out on the road this time?

GREAT road win against a team that's already beat Oregon State, Utah State, Pacific, and Pacific.

I think the Pilots were down 13 at one point in the second half. Awesome grit to come back all the way down from that!

Dean Murdoch wrote:

Dean Murdoch wrote:This run by Davis is affirming my decision to start drinking at 2 PM on a Wednesday.

And all the way back to tie it up!

Nice job by the Pilots to battle back. Can they close one out on the road this time?

They do! (Thank goodness that last missed 3 pointer by the Aggies was only for the tie)

Great way to finish up non-conference. MSU and UC Davis are very much in the Pepperdine, Pacific, San Diego range. Down to the wire away from Chiles twice with Montana State and got the win today in Davis.

This team won't beat Gonzaga, but I see no reason why they won't be able to at least challenge UP's cumulative win total from 2018-21 this year.

Dean Murdoch wrote:This team won't beat Gonzaga, but I see no reason why they won't be able to at least challenge UP's cumulative win total from 2018-21 this year.

That's actually a higher bar than I thought upon initial reading. Pilots have 9 wins in all games this year. The cumulative wins over the last three years in all games is 22. 13 wins in conference is not very realistic.

What is realistic is exceeding the cumulative conference wins in 2018-21, which is only 1. I am pretty confident they can do better than that.

Coach Legans says we are going to hate that all these games are going to be gut-wrenching and decided at the buzzer. He tells the truth. At least they are 3-2 in games decided by less than 5 points (MSU )

up7587 wrote:What is realistic is exceeding the cumulative conference wins in 2018-21, which is only 1.  I am pretty confident they can do better than that.

Oops, that’s what I meant. I wasn’t kidding when I said I started drinking at 2 today

Dean Murdoch wrote:This run by Davis is affirming my decision to start drinking at 2 PM on a Wednesday.

Don’t stop.

I’ll admit to turning away from the broadcast when the Pilots allowed the initial run to start the second half.

Too many memories of the last regime. The difference is what I came back they were only down by 2 and tied it right after.

Kudos for battling. Love it that they won the rebound battle at both ends. That’s been lacking in a few games.

up7587 wrote:What is realistic is exceeding the cumulative conference wins in 2018-21, which is only 1.  I am pretty confident they can do better than that.

KenPom still disagrees.

Although KenPom moved the Pilots from 298 to 280 with the win over UCD, he predicts the closest the Pilots will come to winning are home losses to Pacific on January 27, 70-69, to San Diego on February 17, 68-66, and to Pepperdine two days later, 73-72.

But yes, I too expect the Pilots to win more than once, and as this team has now played only 15 games together and the guys are still getting to know how best to work together while the coaches continue to learn their strengths and weaknesses as TEAM, I am confident they will surprise a few teams during WCC play.

The next game (BYU) is 10 days away and it is time for players, coaches, staff, and fans to spend some quality time with family and start thinking about basketball again after Christmas...

DoubleDipper wrote:The next game (BYU) is 10 days away and it is time for players, coaches, staff, and fans to spend some quality time with family and start thinking about basketball again after Christmas...

BYU also plays today, then has a week off before playing D-II Westminster College on the 29th as a warm-up for WCC play. They shouldn't be too worn out from that game.

135 net. Away. That's a quad 2 win. UC Davis is likely to drop below 135 next week though so quad 3. I believe that's our first non quad 4 win of the year

DoubleDipper wrote:Although KenPom moved the Pilots from 298 to 280 with the win over UCD, he predicts the closest the Pilots will come to winning are home losses to Pacific on January 27, 70-69, to San Diego on February 17, 68-66, and to Pepperdine two days later, 73-72.

Don’t look now, but after Pacific’s loss to Cal today ol’ Kenpom now has the Pilots winning that home game against UoP! Look at us go!

Dean Murdoch wrote:Don’t look now, but after Pacific’s loss to Cal today ol’ Kenpom now has the Pilots winning that home game against UoP! Look at us go!

When I saw UOP was up by 5 at the half, I decided to watch that game and then watched as Cal outscored the Tigers in the second half, 48-23, to win 73-53. Former UP commit Grant Anticevich, who Porter turned away because he would play ahead of his sons, led Cal with 25 points, including 7 3-pointers, and 11 rebounds.

UP's game with UOP is still 8 games away, including two games against BYU, and barring injury the Pilots should continue to improve between now and then.

USD is now favored by just 1 point instead of 2 over the Pilots after losing to UNLV, 80-57, on the road tonight.

dholcombe wrote:135 net. Away. That's a quad 2 win. UC Davis is likely to drop below 135 next week though so quad 3. I believe that's our first non quad 4 win of the year

That didn’t last long. UP’s win dropped UC Davis down 62 spots (!) in today’s NET, from 133 all the way down to 195.

Pilots are up 16 today to 245.

Dean Murdoch wrote:

dholcombe wrote:135 net. Away. That's a quad 2 win. UC Davis is likely to drop below 135 next week though so quad 3. I believe that's our first non quad 4 win of the year

That didn’t last long. UP’s win dropped UC Davis down 62 spots (!) in today’s NET, from 133 all the way down to 195.

Pilots are up 16 today to 245.

That puts us above UOP and PU, both 5-9. The Net seems more reasonable than KenPom. There we are 282, UOP is 241 and PU is 227. And Portland St., who we defeated on their court and who is 3-7, is 265.

The Hometown Perspective:  "UCD men’s basketball team goes cold in loss to Pilots..."

“I didn’t think we came out with the right mindset,” said Aggie head coach Jim Les. “I’m disappointed in our effort. We took some bad shots and just didn’t defend well when we needed to.”

https://www.davisenterprise.com/sports/basketball-chilling-loss-for-ucd-mens-basketball-team/

up7587 wrote:The Net seems more reasonable than KenPom.

Very much agreed. I think Kenpom's preseason ratings are still dragging down the Pilots.

Bart Torvik's page has the Pilots in a similar neighborhood as NET (#244) and is projecting a 4-12 WCC record for UP. https://barttorvik.com/conf.php?conf=WCC&year=2022

Random stat of the day -

Mike Meadows leads the nation in minutes played (538).

2, 3, and 4 are all from Santa Clara. Keshawn Justice (525), Jalen Williams (518), and Parker Braun (510).

And besides Meadows, the Pilots have three more in the top 25 in the country. Tyler Robertson at #13 with 467 minutes, Moses Wood at #18 with 455, and Chris Austin at #25 with 445.