2023 WCC Tournament

I don't like saying this, but analytics favors the Pilots.  KenPom has UP as the #7 WCC team, and USD as the #10.  And ESPN says 61.5% UP to 38.5% USD.

Now that I've jinxed them, hopefully a few things happen:
- Moses continues rolling.  He averaged 27 pts and 9 reb last week.
- Kristian shows up. He had 16 pts vs UOP, and 5 total vs USF and SCU. He can take over a game, or completely disappear.
- Mike is more selfish.  After 39 pts against SCU, he had 4 against UOP in 34 minutes.  He's a great teammate, but he needs to score, too.
- Tyler gets out of his funk.  He's averaged 14 points his last 5 games, but he's only 26% on 3Ps (7-27), and only 28% on 2Ps (9-32).  He needs to score much better in the paint.  And maybe worry less about drawing the and-one.  He also averaged 4 TOs the last five games.  Clean that up.
- Alden and Juanse contribute.  They're both around 8 ppg on the season.  A clean game from each will be big.  
- A Joey sighting. 10 minutes and 4 points would be good.  That's what USD's big man averages.
- Visilije plays a role. In the 7 games leading into conference play he averaged 20 mpg.  He has not played more than 12 minutes in any conference game.  Chika does what he can as an undersized center, but he doesn't get to the rim on offense, and on defense refs are watching him closely for grabbing and pushing. If Vasilije can do whatever he needs to do to stay on the floor (I am guessing better defense), that will help a lot.  USD is not a big 3P shooting team; 63.6% of their shot attempts come from 2P range (UP is only 55% attempts from 2P range).  Another big on the floor will help.
- Coleman plays the final minute. Always a good sign.

Go Pilots.

Tied at half time. No 2nd chance points for USD. Clean up turnovers, and get some bench scoring. And make your free throws.

up7587 wrote:. . . hopefully a few things happen:
- Moses continues rolling.  He averaged 27 pts and 9 reb last week. Check. 19 and 5, Very efficient.
- Kristian shows up. He had 16 pts vs UOP, and 5 total vs USF and SCU. He can take over a game, or completely disappear.
OK. 13 points in only 18 minutes
- Mike is more selfish.  After 39 pts against SCU, he had 4 against UOP in 34 minutes.  He's a great teammate, but he needs to score, too. Check. Stepped up in 2nd half. Got 12 points.
- Tyler gets out of his funk.  He's averaged 14 points his last 5 games, but he's only 26% on 3Ps (7-27), and only 28% on 2Ps (9-32).  He needs to score much better in the paint.  And maybe worry less about drawing the and-one.  He also averaged 4 TOs the last five games.  Clean that up. For sure. 23, 11 and 6. Only 3 TOs.
- Alden and Juanse contribute.  They're both around 8 ppg on the season.  A clean game from each will be big.   Sort of. Juanse got 15 pts, no TOs. Alden struggled with 2 pts, 3 TOs
- A Joey sighting. 10 minutes and 4 points would be good.  That's what USD's big man averages. Nope. Not seen.
- Visilije plays a role. In the 7 games leading into conference play he averaged 20 mpg.  He has not played more than 12 minutes in any conference game.  Chika does what he can as an undersized center, but he doesn't get to the rim on offense, and on defense refs are watching him closely for grabbing and pushing. If Vasilije can do whatever he needs to do to stay on the floor (I am guessing better defense), that will help a lot.  USD is not a big 3P shooting team; 63.6% of their shot attempts come from 2P range (UP is only 55% attempts from 2P range).  Another big on the floor will help. Another nope. Vasilije 0 pts in 5 min. But Chika got 7 pts, 2 rbs.
- Coleman plays the final minute. Always a good sign. Bingo!

Go Pilots.

The starters got 82 points. Bench got 10.

Coach Legans now has a win in each of his two WCC tournament appearances. That's two more tourney wins than the previous coach had in his career.

In the late game, UOP shot 50% on 3Ps, but only tried a measly 20 attempts.  No matter, it was plenty to put away the talented but young PU Waves, 84-71.

ESPN analytics says BYU 77% to win. BYU opened a 7.5 pt favorite, bet down to 6.5 currently.

Can't find it, but didn't we have a pre-season discussion about thinking that if the Pilots ended up at KenPom 150 we'd be pretty happy?

The conference record is disappointing, but playing GU and SMC twice instead of once, playing BYU only on the road, and losing Tyler, Moses and Mike for multiple games hurt. Then there was the puke-fest in Malibu.

The teams that stepped up this year were LMU and SCU. Neither was predicted top 4. UOP also did better than expected. BYU and USF fell a little short of expectations, and USD was way short of expectations. Lavin and his transfers just did not get it together.

Dean Murdoch wrote:How many beers deep are the four legends sitting courtside across from the BYU bench?

Jealous?