2024 Schedule

2024 Fall Schedule

Aug. 15 at Cal Poly, 7 p.m.
Aug. 18 vs. Stonehill College, 1 p.m.
Aug. 22 at Hawaii, TBD
Aug. 25 vs. Baylor, TBD
Aug. 31 vs. USC, 4 p.m.
Sept. 5 vs. Sacramento State^, 7 p.m.
Sept. 8 vs. Nebraska^, 12 p.m.
Sept. 12 vs. Seattle U, 7 p.m.
Sept. 21 vs. Cal Baptist, 7 p.m.
Sept. 28 vs. Saint Mary's*, 7 p.m.
Oc. 2 at San Francisco*, 6 p.m.
Oct. 5 at Santa Clara*, 1 p.m.
Oct. 9 vs. Pacific*, 7 p.m.
Oct. 12 at Washington State*, 7 p.m.
Oct. 18 at San Diego*, TBD
Oct. 23 vs. Pepperdine*, 7 p.m.
Oct. 26 vs. LMU*, 7 p.m.
Nov. 2 at Gonzaga*, TBD
Nov. 9 vs. Oregon State*, 7 p.m.
 
^Indicates doubleheader with men's team
*Indicates WCC match
Bold indicates home match
All times are PST

I hope Stonehill has a better season this year.
With only two wins last year, both over teams with losing records, they killed our RPI.

Stonehill is unlikely to be much better this year than last (which was their first a D1). Unfortunately, the UP administration wanted the Pilots to play them away and home since they are a sibling school.

With this schedule, the Pilots will need at least two results (wins or ties) against the group of Southern California, Nebraska, Santa Clara, and Pepperdine (and possibly Washington State), to have a chance at the NCAA Tournament. I would include Gonzaga on the list, but their coach has left and so have a number of their best players, so I do not think a result against them will do much for NCAA Tournament prospects.

With the team's first game just two months away, on August 15, this randomly popped up on my feed yesterday...

https://x.com/i/status/1801045079949504783

The timing of this probably is not random and may not be related to the opening of the 2024 season in August. Saturday, June 15, is when coaches can begin contacting potential players who will be entering college in 2026. Schools are doing whatever they can to get positive attention on social media in the leadup to that date.

Pilots expected to finish in 4th place by the WCC coaches...

2024 WCC Women's Soccer Preseason Coaches Poll:

1. Santa Clara - 98 points (9)
2. Washington State - 87 points (2)
3. Pepperdine - 86 points
4. Portland - 68 points
5. Gonzaga - 52 points
   Saint Mary's - 52 points
7. San Francisco - 49 points
8. Oregon State - 38 points
    Pacific - 38 points
10. LMU - 23 points
11. San Diego - 14 points

Seniors Bre Norris and Cally Togiai selected to the All-WCC preseason team.

https://wccsports.com/news/2024/8/4/athlete-awards-wcc-announces-2024-womens-soccer-preseason-honors.aspx

https://portlandpilots.com/news/2024/8/9/womens-soccer-norris-togiai-make-2024-all-wcc-preseason-team.aspx

First game of the season is tomorrow at Cal Poly at 7pm on ESPN+



...and then at home against CSC school, Stonehill, at 1pm on Sunday.

I am hoping for two wins this week.

For the Cal Poly game, however, my program has the Pilots more likely than Cal Poly to win, but the most likely result as a tie. This is because of Cal Poly's home field advantage.

For the Stonehill game, the Pilots are prohibitive favorites to win. I hope, however, that Stonehill will be better than they were last year, as otherwise they will end the season with a dismal record and that will hurt the Pilots' RPI rating.

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:For the Cal Poly game, however, my program has the Pilots more likely than Cal Poly to win, but the most likely result as a tie.  This is because of Cal Poly's home field advantage.

UP won 2-0 at Merlo last season with goals in the 3rd and 12th minute, but experience is certainly on the side of the Mustangs as Cal Poly returns 26 letterwinners, 10 starters and 90 percent of its goal production from its 2023 team that advanced to the Big West Championship match.  

In total, the Mustangs boast 30 returners, the most of any D1 team this season.

The Cal Poly game reflected both my and DoubleDipper's comments, above. The game ended as a tie 1-1. Cal Poly looked like a pretty well oiled machine, especially for this early in the season, whereas the Pilots looked somewhat disjointed.

For those interested, at this point in the season I use assigned pre-season ratings to predict the outcomes of games. The assigned ratings are derived from average ranks over the last seven years, since those produce the best correlation with actual end-of-season results. For games early in the season, the system's predictions are pretty crude.

The predictions do not take into account factors such as that Cal Poly has the greatest number of returning players of any team in Division I and that the Pilots graduated a bunch of players. The predictions actually are better than that makes them sound, but I will not take them seriously until later in the season when I start using then current actual RPIs as the basis for prediction game results.

It hopefully will be a fun game on Sunday at 1:00 pm when the Pilots take on Stonehill at Merlo Field. Right now, the weather forecast looks like partly sunny with temperatures in the mid 70s.

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:It hopefully will be a fun game on Sunday at 1:00 pm when the Pilots take on Stonehill at Merlo Field.  Right now, the weather forecast looks like partly sunny with temperatures in the mid 70s.

Meanwhile, at home, Stonehill lost its season opener to New Hampshire, 2-0.

https://stonehillskyhawks.com/news/2024/8/15/womens-soccer-drops-its-season-opener-to-unh-under-the-lights.aspx

A pretty good win last night against Hawaii at their place.  I had the Pilots with about a 58% win likelihood, which means a 42% loss or tie likelihood.  Unfortunately, we could not watch the game, there only was livestats.  But great to see the Hailey Bagby goal pop up on the screen just 2 minutes into the game.

Sunday at 3:00 pm our time, they play Baylor in Hawaii.  This is a game that will be a good test.  I have it as a tie, but with Baylor having the greater likelihood of posting a win.  I would love to see a win by the Pilots, as that would be an indicator they may be stronger than expected.  It looks like again, we only will have livestats.  Bummer!

Looks like the Pilots game v Baylor has been moved to 3:00 pm tomorrow (Saturday). I do not like the change. And, still only livestats.

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:Looks like the Pilots game v Baylor has been moved to 3:00 pm tomorrow (Saturday).  I do not like the change.  And, still only livestats.

More about safety than concerns about the tight turnaround between games that gives Baylor and extra day's rest than it does the Pilots.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/tropical-storm-hone-to-gain-strength-as-it-passes-hawaii-over-the-weekend/ar-AA1pjDXO?ocid=BingNewsSerp

Looks like livestats are still configured for a Sunday game, so we don’t even get that.

Geezaldinho wrote:Looks like livestats are still configured for a Sunday game, so we don’t even get that.

Pilots lost to Baylor, 1-0.

Schedule change:

This coming Thursday, September 5, WSOC now plays Sacramento St. at 4:30pm and MSOC plays Bakersfield at 7pm.

DoubleDipper wrote:Schedule change:

This coming Thursday, September 5, WSOC now plays Sacramento St. at 4:30pm and MSOC plays Bakersfield at 7pm.

Changed again...

Due the expected 100+ temperatures on Thursday, the WSOC game has been moved up to 12:30 with the men playing at 7pm.

It's still going to be HOT at 12:30, low to mid-90s by most estimates, just not as hot...

Good move to advance the game time to 12:30 pm.

Looking at my numbers, the Pilots are a pretty heavy favorite against Sacramento State.  Those numbers, however, are based on teams' last 7 years average ranks, translated to ratings and adjusted for home field advantage, which is speculative.  Sac State has done pretty well so far this year, including tieing Cal Poly at home, whom the Pilots tied away.  So, it could be a tight game.

GO PILOTS!

DoubleDipper wrote:

DoubleDipper wrote:Schedule change:

This coming Thursday, September 5, WSOC now plays Sacramento St. at 4:30pm and MSOC plays Bakersfield at 7pm.

Changed again...

Due the expected 100+ temperatures on Thursday, the WSOC game has been moved up to 12:30 with the men playing at 7pm.

It's still going to be HOT at 12:30, low to mid-90s by most estimates, just not as hot...

If things at Merlo are still as they were when I was last there, then UP ought to consider shade structures over the player benches for hot days like this. Shade is one of the best cooling mechanisms (along with proper hydration and ice packs) for keeping athletes safe in extreme heat (a WBGT over 28 C).

But, what do I know...

The Pilots play Nebraska tomorrow -- Sunday -- at noon at Merlo Field. My numbers say a tie is the best prediction, with Nebraska slightly more likely to win than the Pilots.

This is a return game from the 2022 game the Pilots played in Lincoln, which the Pilots won 2-0.

Nebraska finished tied for 1st in the Big 10 last year and lost in the semi-finals of the Big 10 Tournament. So far this year they are 3 wins (Colorado State, Creighton, and Oregon State) and 2 losses (Oklahoma State and Duke). They have scored 10 goals and given up 10.

Game time weather prediction is partly cloudy and 74 degrees.

It was a great day for soccer on Sunday and the game was as good as the day, with the Pilots winning on a late PK earned by Jillian McBride and put in by Cally Togiai. This was one of the most fun games to watch in a long time. If you missed it, you missed a really fun time!

The Pilots play Saint Mary's tomorrow at Merlo at 7:00 pm, their first WCC game of the season.

The Gaels are 3-4-1 so far: loss to UC Irvine 0-3, @ Vanderbilt 1-4, to Stanford 0-1, and at Cal 1-2; wins @ Tennessee Tech 4-0, v Cal State Bakersfield 2-1, and at UC Riverside 1-0; and a tie @ San Jose State 0-0.  Those results look pretty mixed to me, as the 0-1 and 1-2 Stanford and Cal results are respectable.

Using teams' actual RPI rankings as of last Monday, adjusted for home field advantage, the numbers say that if the teams were to play 5 games, the Pilots would win just under 4 of them.  But, this is the first WCC game of the season and I am not sure how much I trust the numbers.

It looks like temperatures will be in the high 60s at game time, cloudy skies.  For the players, this should be great weather, and for the fans pretty good, too.

I'm expecting a great game.  Come cheer on the team.

GO PILOTS!

My unpublished predictions for the last two games were a win over Pacific (easy prediction) and a tie with Washington State (tougher prediction), so the predictions were correct for both games. The Pilots play San Diego this evening at 7:00 pm @ San Diego. Notwithstanding it is an away game, the numbers say a win for the Pilots with a small chance for a tie and a very small chance for a loss

I was happy to see freshman Nevaeh Peregrina get some minutes against Washington State, as she is a premier midfielder and top level recruit. I assume she is just coming off the injured list and they will be building up her minutes over time.

GO PILOTS!

The Pilots play Pepperdine tomorrow (Wednesday) at Merlo, at 7:00 pm. Then, they play Loyola Marymount Saturday at Merlo, at 7:00 pm. These are big games for all three teams. If the Pilots get good results, it will be fantastic.

The Pilots are underdogs against Pepperdine. However, Pepperdine lost to LMU over the weekend, 3-0, so maybe something is going on there.

Versus LMU, the numbers predict a tie, but with LMU having a slight edge. (Yes, Pepperdine's rating is better than LMU's, notwithstanding the recent result between the two of them.)

I have the feeling the Pilots are verging on some breakout games, so I would love to see two wins this week. Maybe I am dreaming, but maybe not.

GO PILOTS!