2024 Schedule

2024 Fall Schedule

Aug. 15 at Cal Poly, 7 p.m.
Aug. 18 vs. Stonehill College, 1 p.m.
Aug. 22 at Hawaii, TBD
Aug. 25 vs. Baylor, TBD
Aug. 31 vs. USC, 4 p.m.
Sept. 5 vs. Sacramento State^, 7 p.m.
Sept. 8 vs. Nebraska^, 12 p.m.
Sept. 12 vs. Seattle U, 7 p.m.
Sept. 21 vs. Cal Baptist, 7 p.m.
Sept. 28 vs. Saint Mary's*, 7 p.m.
Oc. 2 at San Francisco*, 6 p.m.
Oct. 5 at Santa Clara*, 1 p.m.
Oct. 9 vs. Pacific*, 7 p.m.
Oct. 12 at Washington State*, 7 p.m.
Oct. 18 at San Diego*, TBD
Oct. 23 vs. Pepperdine*, 7 p.m.
Oct. 26 vs. LMU*, 7 p.m.
Nov. 2 at Gonzaga*, TBD
Nov. 9 vs. Oregon State*, 7 p.m.
 
^Indicates doubleheader with men's team
*Indicates WCC match
Bold indicates home match
All times are PST

I hope Stonehill has a better season this year.
With only two wins last year, both over teams with losing records, they killed our RPI.

Stonehill is unlikely to be much better this year than last (which was their first a D1). Unfortunately, the UP administration wanted the Pilots to play them away and home since they are a sibling school.

With this schedule, the Pilots will need at least two results (wins or ties) against the group of Southern California, Nebraska, Santa Clara, and Pepperdine (and possibly Washington State), to have a chance at the NCAA Tournament. I would include Gonzaga on the list, but their coach has left and so have a number of their best players, so I do not think a result against them will do much for NCAA Tournament prospects.

With the team's first game just two months away, on August 15, this randomly popped up on my feed yesterday...

https://x.com/i/status/1801045079949504783

The timing of this probably is not random and may not be related to the opening of the 2024 season in August. Saturday, June 15, is when coaches can begin contacting potential players who will be entering college in 2026. Schools are doing whatever they can to get positive attention on social media in the leadup to that date.

Pilots expected to finish in 4th place by the WCC coaches...

2024 WCC Women's Soccer Preseason Coaches Poll:

1. Santa Clara - 98 points (9)
2. Washington State - 87 points (2)
3. Pepperdine - 86 points
4. Portland - 68 points
5. Gonzaga - 52 points
   Saint Mary's - 52 points
7. San Francisco - 49 points
8. Oregon State - 38 points
    Pacific - 38 points
10. LMU - 23 points
11. San Diego - 14 points

Seniors Bre Norris and Cally Togiai selected to the All-WCC preseason team.

https://wccsports.com/news/2024/8/4/athlete-awards-wcc-announces-2024-womens-soccer-preseason-honors.aspx

https://portlandpilots.com/news/2024/8/9/womens-soccer-norris-togiai-make-2024-all-wcc-preseason-team.aspx

First game of the season is tomorrow at Cal Poly at 7pm on ESPN+



...and then at home against CSC school, Stonehill, at 1pm on Sunday.

I am hoping for two wins this week.

For the Cal Poly game, however, my program has the Pilots more likely than Cal Poly to win, but the most likely result as a tie. This is because of Cal Poly's home field advantage.

For the Stonehill game, the Pilots are prohibitive favorites to win. I hope, however, that Stonehill will be better than they were last year, as otherwise they will end the season with a dismal record and that will hurt the Pilots' RPI rating.

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:For the Cal Poly game, however, my program has the Pilots more likely than Cal Poly to win, but the most likely result as a tie.  This is because of Cal Poly's home field advantage.

UP won 2-0 at Merlo last season with goals in the 3rd and 12th minute, but experience is certainly on the side of the Mustangs as Cal Poly returns 26 letterwinners, 10 starters and 90 percent of its goal production from its 2023 team that advanced to the Big West Championship match.  

In total, the Mustangs boast 30 returners, the most of any D1 team this season.

The Cal Poly game reflected both my and DoubleDipper's comments, above. The game ended as a tie 1-1. Cal Poly looked like a pretty well oiled machine, especially for this early in the season, whereas the Pilots looked somewhat disjointed.

For those interested, at this point in the season I use assigned pre-season ratings to predict the outcomes of games. The assigned ratings are derived from average ranks over the last seven years, since those produce the best correlation with actual end-of-season results. For games early in the season, the system's predictions are pretty crude.

The predictions do not take into account factors such as that Cal Poly has the greatest number of returning players of any team in Division I and that the Pilots graduated a bunch of players. The predictions actually are better than that makes them sound, but I will not take them seriously until later in the season when I start using then current actual RPIs as the basis for prediction game results.

It hopefully will be a fun game on Sunday at 1:00 pm when the Pilots take on Stonehill at Merlo Field. Right now, the weather forecast looks like partly sunny with temperatures in the mid 70s.

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:It hopefully will be a fun game on Sunday at 1:00 pm when the Pilots take on Stonehill at Merlo Field.  Right now, the weather forecast looks like partly sunny with temperatures in the mid 70s.

Meanwhile, at home, Stonehill lost its season opener to New Hampshire, 2-0.

https://stonehillskyhawks.com/news/2024/8/15/womens-soccer-drops-its-season-opener-to-unh-under-the-lights.aspx

A pretty good win last night against Hawaii at their place.  I had the Pilots with about a 58% win likelihood, which means a 42% loss or tie likelihood.  Unfortunately, we could not watch the game, there only was livestats.  But great to see the Hailey Bagby goal pop up on the screen just 2 minutes into the game.

Sunday at 3:00 pm our time, they play Baylor in Hawaii.  This is a game that will be a good test.  I have it as a tie, but with Baylor having the greater likelihood of posting a win.  I would love to see a win by the Pilots, as that would be an indicator they may be stronger than expected.  It looks like again, we only will have livestats.  Bummer!

Looks like the Pilots game v Baylor has been moved to 3:00 pm tomorrow (Saturday). I do not like the change. And, still only livestats.

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:Looks like the Pilots game v Baylor has been moved to 3:00 pm tomorrow (Saturday).  I do not like the change.  And, still only livestats.

More about safety than concerns about the tight turnaround between games that gives Baylor and extra day's rest than it does the Pilots.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/tropical-storm-hone-to-gain-strength-as-it-passes-hawaii-over-the-weekend/ar-AA1pjDXO?ocid=BingNewsSerp

Looks like livestats are still configured for a Sunday game, so we don’t even get that.

Geezaldinho wrote:Looks like livestats are still configured for a Sunday game, so we don’t even get that.

Pilots lost to Baylor, 1-0.

Schedule change:

This coming Thursday, September 5, WSOC now plays Sacramento St. at 4:30pm and MSOC plays Bakersfield at 7pm.

DoubleDipper wrote:Schedule change:

This coming Thursday, September 5, WSOC now plays Sacramento St. at 4:30pm and MSOC plays Bakersfield at 7pm.

Changed again...

Due the expected 100+ temperatures on Thursday, the WSOC game has been moved up to 12:30 with the men playing at 7pm.

It's still going to be HOT at 12:30, low to mid-90s by most estimates, just not as hot...

Good move to advance the game time to 12:30 pm.

Looking at my numbers, the Pilots are a pretty heavy favorite against Sacramento State.  Those numbers, however, are based on teams' last 7 years average ranks, translated to ratings and adjusted for home field advantage, which is speculative.  Sac State has done pretty well so far this year, including tieing Cal Poly at home, whom the Pilots tied away.  So, it could be a tight game.

GO PILOTS!

DoubleDipper wrote:

DoubleDipper wrote:Schedule change:

This coming Thursday, September 5, WSOC now plays Sacramento St. at 4:30pm and MSOC plays Bakersfield at 7pm.

Changed again...

Due the expected 100+ temperatures on Thursday, the WSOC game has been moved up to 12:30 with the men playing at 7pm.

It's still going to be HOT at 12:30, low to mid-90s by most estimates, just not as hot...

If things at Merlo are still as they were when I was last there, then UP ought to consider shade structures over the player benches for hot days like this. Shade is one of the best cooling mechanisms (along with proper hydration and ice packs) for keeping athletes safe in extreme heat (a WBGT over 28 C).

But, what do I know...