Schedule Changes

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
September 16, 2008
UP Women’s Soccer Schedule Changes: Friday Start time 6 PM; Match at OSU Cancelled

PORTLAND, Ore. --- The University of Portland has announced changes to the 2008 women’s soccer schedule. This Friday’s match with the visiting Florida Gators is scheduled for a 6 p.m. kickoff, an hour earlier than originally scheduled. Also, the Portland-Oregon State women’s soccer match scheduled for Sunday, Oct. 5 in Corvallis has been cancelled and will not be rescheduled this season.

The Pilots (6-1-0), ranked No. 5 in this week’s NSCAA poll, are riding a five match winning streak in which they have outscored opponents by a 25-0 margin. Florida, ranked No. 16, has gotten off to a good start with a 4-1-1 record including a pair of wins over No. 4 Florida State (1-0) and No. 18 Illinois (2-0) last weekend.


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Amazing the OSU game got cancelled... the story I heard was that OSU had scheduled a game against a Canadian team (or something like that) that they didn't think the NCAA would count it as a "real" game (remember those dicussiosn we were having earlier about scrimmages? Geezer knows all about it, but basically the NCAA has rules about how many games and scrimmages teams can play). But the NCAA did indeed count it, so OSU was up a creek. Not sure what this means for UP... I guess just one less game on the schedule since I'm sure it's too late to schedule anything. Bizarre.

Thats too bad for Portland State that is what they have "compliance" officers for. Can you imagine your whole job is just making sure your programs comply with NCAA rules. To me that spells to much regulation/government. But thats just me. If I had my choice I'd live in the hills with a shotgun and survivalist manual.

Yeah... not really sure what happened there.

But the real question is... how does this affect us? UPSF, I turn to your RPI knowledge. Will it hurt us to play one less game? Or will it actually help our RPI because OSU is relatively weak?

And it also means one less game for our players before conference play and one less game for Garrett to tinker with the line-ups. Hmmmm... not really sure how I feel about this.

Well I know this question was for the RPI guru UPSF, but you know I am compelled to interject my thoughts anyway. First, I cant't help believe having another win would hurt us on paper (if the unthinkable happened and we lost that would have been quite a blow to the old RPI).

As a practical day to day matter. We have been collecting a number of injuries which spell to me overuse or playing bad teams who compensate by trying to beat on us. I can't comment on the character of the Portland State team in this regard. But I do think having an extra day of rest might actually help us, if not against Florida but for rest in anticipation of the following weeks trip back east, which I know will be more important that playing a lower ranked team from our own region.

Hmm, interesting indeed.

Any idea why the game time for Friday was changed?! Is the game going to be on TV or something? I would think that the release would have said so, if that was the case... It just seems weird that no explanation was given.

Maybe so Florida can fly home sooner and start nursing their wounds at an earlier time?? I could be wrong...

Regarding the timing of the Florida game, it's at least a reasonable guess that Florida needs to advance the game time in order to meet a plane schedule. They play Kansas in Florida at 1:00 pm Eastern Time on Sunday, meaning 10:00 am West Coast time. If I were them, I'd be wanting to get as early a flight back to Florida as possible following Friday's game. If I were them, I'd also want to be playing as early as possible on Friday. Even a 6:00 pm start time will be 9:00 pm their time; a 7:00 pm start time would have been 10:00 pm their time. Not that I think the Pilots necessarily would want to accommodate them for that reason, but if I were them it would help me try to find a Friday night flight rather than waiting for a red-eye early Saturday morning. The one thing they want to avoid at all costs is losing both games.

Its definately the timing between games. Say our game would start at 7pm our time (10pm their time) and a game takes about 2hours to play that means it would be over for us at about 9pm and for them about midnight too late to fly. If I were them I would want to get a redeye Friday night so they have Satuday to rest up and reaclimate. Maybe have a walkthrough practice Saturday afternoon/evening.

The late timing of the change is what I find puzzling. It seems to me the issue of time between matches and travel would have been worked out when the schedule was originally made months ago.

The change is detrimental to UP (in terms of having to notifying fans, etc; inevitably some people will not get the word or now wont be able to leave work in time to get there to see the kick-off)... so I find it a bit curious that we are so accommodating on such short notice... had they wanted to change a month ago, it wouldnt have been a big deal at all (all teams need changes now and then). But 3 days before the game???! This just seems peculiar to me...

If it is indeed Florida wanting the earlier start (and therefore earlier finish), are they footing the bill to notify all ticket holders? What concession are they giving?

You are right they should have considered the travel ramifications before they scheduled a game on the westcoast on friday and a game on the east coast on sunday. My only guess is that our dominant play this last weekend may have given Floriday pause to reflect on how much recovery time they might need. Still no excuse. But I think we will find out soon what the reason for the change.

I found this on gatorzone:

9:00PM ET
Florida @ Portland
AM850-WRUF (Gainesville) / Cox Ch. 96 & 946 (Gainesville)
Watch on PilotsVideo.com
Web Audio: GatorZone.com

Perhaps we are trying to find a way to use their feed to broadcast here.

There are some redeyes that leave at 10:00-10:30.

I'd have to say it would be killer for the team being rested, though.

Stonehouse wrote:But the real question is... how does this affect us? UPSF, I turn to your RPI knowledge. Will it hurt us to play one less game? Or will it actually help our RPI because OSU is relatively weak?

Here's what I figure: Assume the Pilots win out from here. Without OSU, the Pilots' record will be 17-1. If the Pilots played OSU, it would have been 18-1. Also, I've taken a look at OSU's current record, their upcoming four non-conference games, and their conference opponents. They currently are 4-2. Their upcoming non-conference opponents are New Hampshire, Dartmouth, Weber State, and Fresno State. Let's assume the Beavers record with those opponents is 3-1 (I'm thinking of Dartmouth as the possible winner). Let's also assume that the Beavers lose all their Pac 10 games, which at least is a realistic possibility. They would end the season with a 7-12 record. Let's also assume that the winning percentages of the Beavers' opponents are the same as they were last year, which is fairly reasonable since half of their opponents are the same Pac 10 opponents they had last year.

The formula for Element 1 of the RPI, the Pilots' winning percentage, is Element 1 = (Wins + 1/2 ties)/(Wins + losses + ties). So, without OSU, Element 1 is 0.9444; and with OSU it is 0.9474.

Element 2 of the RPI is the average of the Pilots' opponents' winning percentages against teams other than the Pilots. Let's assume that the Pilots' opponents this year (excluding Oregon State) will have the same average winning percentage as last year. Then without the OSU game, the Pilots' RPI Element 2 would be 0.5965, for 18 games. If the Beavers' record this year is 7-12 (excluding a game with the Pilots), that makes their winning percentage 0.3684. If they were to play the Pilots and lose, this percentage would not change since the RPI uses their winning percentage against teams other than the Pilots. So, if I run a computation to add an additional game against OSU, including OSU's 0.3684 with the 18 other teams' RPIs that averaged 0.5965, this results in an RPI Element 2 of 0.5845 with OSU included in the schedule.

We're assuming that the Pilots' opponents' opponents' winning percentages will be the same this year as for last year, which amount is 0.5657.

The overall RPI formula for the unadjusted RPI is (Element 1 + 2(Element 2) + Element 3)/4. Under our hypothetical, there will be no bonuses or penalties associated with the OSU game, so the effect of playing or not playing OSU will not affect the adjusted RPI any more than what I've already discussed. Running this formula for the unadjusted RPI, in our hypothetical the Pilots' unadjusted RPI without the OSU game will be 0.6758 and with the OSU game will be 0.6705.

This reflects a feature of the RPI, which is that a team can win a game but have its RPI reduced. This happens if the opponent's winning percentage is low enough to more than offset the increase in the team's winning percentage because of the win.

The above difference between the hypotheticals with and without OSU, of 0.0053, is not super large but would have been significant enough last year possibly to have made a difference in seeding if it had affected any teams from the fourth #1 seed or lower. If it had affected a team on the bubble for an at large selection for the NCAA tournament, it certainly would have been significant enough possibly to have affected the at large selections.

We have to remember that these calculations are based on the assumptions I've made. We won't really know what difference a win against OSU would have made until the end of the season when we have the real data for the Pilots and the Beavers. This does show, however, that a win does not necessarily improve a team's RPI.

Regarding the lateness of the change, I did hear a PA announcement at Sunday's game that Friday's game would be at 6:00 pm. I wonder if the airline itself made a late schedule change. Or, maybe it's a Gators attempt to sabotage the Pilots' attendance. It most definitely does look like poor scheduling by the Gators.

Funny, I think it's been on the schedule on the website at 6 for quite a while - I put all the games on my calendar and just checked - I already had it at 6.

Would have been nice to, you know, make sure people knew a little bit FURTHER out!

It's been on my calendar as 6 pm for at least the last few weeks.

I don't know why you guys are whining about this. Just get a personal assistant to keep track of this stuff for you.

Mildred takes care of it for me....

They announced the schedule change for the Florida game at the season-ticket holder kickoff-event on 16 August; it's been on the website-schedule since that date. The revised time is also printed on the tickets for the Florida game, and on the free team poster that they hand out at the games.

All of the above also applies for the Santa Clara women's game on 2 November, whose time is 1:30pm rather than the 2:30pm time that the pocket schedule lists.

The most recent announcement was apparently just a reminder for folks whose primary source of information is the pocket schedule.

The Oregonian sports section also mis-stated the game time as 7:00 pm in this morning's paper. That probably is why the school re-announced the time.

Okay, i'm not so miffed now.

Kind of a little twist for ya'all to chew on: (or, I can top you, I can top you...)

I have a Pilots 2008 schedule printed out from the Pilots website that is dated 7/26/2008 (the date I printed it).

The Florida game is listed at 6pm.

I have a feeling this was decided some time ago. However, with the pocket schedule listing at 7pm, I am guessing there was a communication breakdown along the way.

After having worked in the heat of the business meat-grinder for over 30 years before becoming disabled, I can vouch for the fact that this does happen, even to the best of crews, on occasion. It's when it happens regularly that you might start looking for a new employer. Just a thought.

This doesn't happen with the Pilots athletic department very often, does it?

I just re-checked my season ticket for tonight's game, which was handed out at the preseason scrimmage last month, and it says 6 p.m. Since the ticket printers knew long ago that this was an early game, it should not have been a surprise. An odd time, but not a last-minute switcheroo accoording to the ticket. Maybe someone else had the time wrong.

Remember the days before Merlo lights when there were no night games? Now us working folk can still get to the early games, I5 traffic willing.

The lights have changed everything.

Given day workers a chance to see Friday games. Increased attendance. Changed the atmosphere to electric and even magical on the right night. Made the match more of a "happening".

That's not to discount the atmosphere and fun of a day game. I just find night games really exciting.

purple haze wrote:
Remember the days before Merlo lights when there were no night games?

FANatic wrote:
The lights have changed everything.

Yes and yes. When I was in school the drum squad was just getting started and we would only get a few students on a weekend afternoon. Seems like people had other things to do. Now, the whole drum squad shows up in costume to every game and the students are out in force, along with the crowd. I actually hadn't gotten back to Merlo since I graduated in 03, and I have to say game under the lights just makes things different and adds some energy to the air. I love it.

Is this thing working yet? FAN 9-22-2008 6:56am

It appears to be. 9-22-08 7:37 am