2009 Playoff Round 1 Host Sites

I have been following this site for a while but this is my first post. Lots of knowledgeable experts which makes for interesting reading.

On the flight back home this week I took a crack at predicting the host sites for the first weekend of the playoffs.

I started with the 64 teams listed on Top Drawer poll last week assuming those are the ones that make it to the tournament. It is quite a jigsaw puzzle to place these teams all in groups of 4 by geographic region. (especially when you only have the US map at the back of the flight magazine from the seat pocket in front of you to measure 300-400 miles.) The whole thing will change depending on how the rest of the season goes, the conf tournaments, RPI, etc.

I am assuming NCAA will do its best to cut travel costs and will only fly 1 team in. Looking at previous brackets it looks like 3 or 4 teams get shipped (seeded but don't host) each year. I am also assuming you can play a conf opponent in the 2nd round. Too expensive to push that out to the 3rd round. I also expect them to give some preference to schools that can have a good record with gate attendance.

Here we go:

In the West: I think U or P will have a lock on hosting this year with UW and WSU likely to make it. They will fly a 4th in. My guess is: Minnesota. They are somewhat isolated from others, can fly most places direct, and Chicago area already has a foursome.

#1 (U of P host, UW, Minn, WSU)

In Southern California either USC or UCLA will get shipped. Looking at the current score between those two it is likely to be USC.

#2 (UCLA host, UCSB, SD, LB ST)

#3 (COL host, Denver, Col College, S. Dakota St)

In Northern California, with only Cal and Stanford left in the west I am predicting Stanford will be a #1 seed but get shipped like U of P did in '05. Cal fills out the Utah bracket.

#4 ( BYU host, Weber St, Cal, Utah St)

Great Lakes area:

#5 (ND host, Loyola (Ch), MSU, C. Michigan)

NE

#6 (BC host, BU, Sienna, Hofstra)

SE

I think FL or FSU likely to get shipped. I guess it will be FL

#7 (FSU host, UCF, Ala A&M, Aub)
#8 (UNC host, E. Carolina, UNC-GR, Charlotte)

tex/LA

#9 (A&M host, TCU, Texas, LSU)

#10 (OK st (#shpped to? Dayton, Cincinati, WV)

#11 (PSU host, Geo. Town, Navy, J. Mad)

#12 (VIR host, ODU, W&M, Murray St)

#13 (USC shipped to? Kan, Missouri, Memphis)

#14 ( FL shipped to? ILL, Purdue, Evansville)

#15 (Stanford shipped to ? Rutgers, Princeton, Monmouth)

#16 (Duke host, SC, WF, C Carolina)

If we can get a early read on the final RPI maybe we can release our own bracket ahead of the NCAA. Feel free to take your own crack at this as the weeks go by and make your own predictions on the host schools.

my mistake (s.b. 2008)

Don't go away!

I was just getting into your logic. My first reaction was there thre are some pretty uneven brackets, but I haven't tried to do better. It's tougher than it looks.

Great first Post!

One thought.

Out here, it has only taken 1 local team for UP to host in the past. I've noticed that they will ship out the highest seed in the area besides Portland, Otherwise the PAC 10 gets in a snit about getting wiped off the board in the first weekend.

Gnarly, great post!

But, a potential problem. I believe that the rule for this year -- and most likely this year only -- is that two teams from the same conference cannot be at the same site for rounds 1/2. If I'm right, then UW and WSU cannot both be here. Can you do a refinement that sends one of them somewhere else? Two teams can be shipped to a site, as the Geez suggests.

As a side comment, something I read makes me think the NCAA has a new computer program for setting up sites. They simply pump the relevant information into the computer and it tells them where to send the teams. Also as a side comment, once the sites are set up, with one seed per site, the seed's first round game is against the team with the lowest RPI at that site. The only exception, in previous years, was if that arrangement would have resulted in two teams from the same conference playing in the first round. With there being a rule for this year that teams from the same conference can't play in either round 1 or round 2, the seed should get the team with the lowest RPI in all cases.

Regarding your thoughts about trying to see if we can figure out in advance what the bracket will be, I will have a final RPI report available some time Sunday night before the NCAA announces its bracket. So, if we all can set up some "vacation" time for Monday morning, maybe we can do it. I think we should be able to come very close to what the NCAA decides.

That would be cool to follow, UPSF.

I hope you guys do it. I really respect you guys for all your statistical prowess and knowledge.

And welcome gnarly. Great first post. You look like you're going to find your niche here and fit in just fine. We love growing the board with good folks who love our Pilots!!!

Gnarly, nice work, as we continue to add bright soccer minds here I cant help but feel like we all have a better idea of what may happen come playoff time.

I'll plan on doing an update after this weeks games and when the new Top D poll is out. I can incorporate the new info that conf teams don't go to the same host site.

Awesome!

So, Washington now is #18 on the RPI list. Washington State is #42. They have still to play each other and the two Arizonas. In addition, Portland State currently sits atop the Big Sky Conference and can clinch the regular season championship this Saturday. That would entitle it to host the Big Sky Tournament (which it has qualified for in any event). The Tournament champion gets the Big Sky automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. So, it's looking pretty good for Round 1 and 2 games in Portland, right?

But ... what if Washington State doesn't do well in its remaining three games and drops down below #50 on the RPI list. In that case, it's probably out of the NCAA tournament. Suppose Portland State doesn't win the Big Sky Tournament. And, nightmare of nightmares (sort of just kidding), suppose Washington wins out! Then, in all likelihood, both the Pilots and the Huskies get seeds. In which case they play at different first/second round locales, in which case ....

So, I know we all root for Portland State. And, we root for the Huskies and Cougs over Arizona and Arizona State. Who do we root for when it's Huskies v Cougs?

These last couple weeks are going to be the end of me with all of the possibilities. I would think eventually the committee would sit down and say "You know UP has really gotten the shaft a couple years in a row, lets throw them a bone"

aleppiek wrote:These last couple weeks are going to be the end of me with all of the possibilities. I would think eventually the committee would sit down and say "You know UP has really gotten the shaft a couple years in a row, lets throw them a bone"

Surely you jest. Probably would come down to Merlo being anything but neutral.

If anything, UPSF's great work taking us through the roller coaster ride that is the RPI, has shown me just how technical and mathmatically involved it is to put together an NCAA 64 team bracket playoff tournament!

You have to be a highly sophisticated statistics analyst to even be on the selection committee, I would think. Or really trust the RPI wizards on the team...

I think Geezer said basketball dropped the RPI a while back in determining their top 64. How does basketball do it now?

Basketball didn't drop the RPI, but they drastically changed how it is computed (home losses /away wins are figured very differently to prevent school from having all home games, which some schools were doing) and now RPI isn't the only consideration in figuring seeding.

Polls can be used (can't in soccer) - a bunch of other stuff I'd have to look up.

PilotDrummer wrote:

aleppiek wrote:These last couple weeks are going to be the end of me with all of the possibilities. I would think eventually the committee would sit down and say "You know UP has really gotten the shaft a couple years in a row, lets throw them a bone"

Surely you jest. Probably would come down to Merlo being anything but neutral.

Well of course not. But shouldn't a team with a top seed be rewarded by playing at home?

Makes too much sense, so the NCAA probably hasn't thought about it....

BTW, you get my PM?