2013 Playoff sites

Still a lot unknown about playoff sites this year.   I assume we are doing the 1-2-1-2 games by weekend again this year.   I assume you cannot play conference opponent in first round.   If anyone knows better please post.

In general it seems like a lot of teams in the mid Atlantic area including a number of likely seeds.  

Starting with the West.  (That's where I know the geography better than for back East).  

CA:   Looks like UCLA, Stanford, and Cal out of Pac 12,   SCU and Pep out of WCC.   Others might be SD st and Cal Poly.   SD St with RPI of 132 might go against #2 UCLA.   Cal Poly (I know, assuming they come out of their conf) might get the higher seed of Stanford or SCU. Pep could end up at Cal or Stanford also.   ASU on bubble too so do they go to Rocky Mt states or head west?

Pacific NW:   This might be easy if PSU comes out of Big Sky and would play UP first round.  Seattle is looking to come out of WAC and if UW makes it (currently 45 rpi) then that would be match up in Seattle.   WSU is on bubble at 46 right now so if they are in then I think they go to either Utah or Denver area.

Rocky Mt states:   In Colorado you have Col, Col C, and Denver.   In Utah you have BYU.   Then possibly ASU or WSU.  I'll say Denver/ASU, WSU/Col C, Col/BYU but you could mix and match these a number of ways for now.

In Texas:   TT, A&M, SFA, plus near by ARK.   In the area are OK St but I think they go up to Neb.

In FL you have FSU and UCF which are both high in RPI.    Maybe FLGC goes to UCF.   On of the weak Southern teams (Furman, Radford, or AL St) goes to either FSU or a UNC).   FL is currently 16 so they likely get a mid range rpi team.

In the NE you have PSU which likely gets someone like a St Francis or Hartford first round.   Hard to know of BC will be 500 as their RPI at 30 is good enough to get in.

In the Great Lakes area are top teams like MQ and Mich who are likely to play teams like Wr St, or E. Mich , or Ill St first round.    Also in this area are Minn, Wis, and Ind out of Big Ten.  ND will likely get IND as it stands today.

Like I said lots of teams in Mid Atlantic.  Top teams Vir, VT, and GT.   Others are W&M, JM, Navy, Rut, MD, WV, Monmouth, Harvard.

In the Kentucky/Tenn area you have Lou and Kentucky, Tenn, Tenn Martin, and W. Kent.

In NC/SC you have UNC and WF out of ACC, S. Car  out of SEC.   All those are pretty strong so they either get weak teams out of SWAC, Southern, Big South, or maybe Atl Sun.

Once the conference  tourneys start more will come into focus. Too early to do exact matchup, but these are teams that look in play this year.

You're right about the 1-2-1-2 format.  Teams from the same conference can not play each other in either of the first two rounds.  They could play at the same second weekend site, but couldn't play each other in the first game of that weekend.

From what I'm hearing, once the teams are seeded in the four seed "pods," you can expect the remaining teams to be assigned based almost entirely on travel cost considerations, which means geography.  I also think that except for a couple of the #1 seeds, you can expect that the four "pods" will have their teams distributed based on geographic considerations. That is subject, of course, to the "no two teams from the same conference playing each other in the first two rounds" rule.  So, you can't necessarily expect even highly seeded teams to have "bottom of the barrel" opponents in the first round.

In the second/third round games, however, where there ordinarily will be two seeded teams and two unseeded teams, you can expect the team with the better seed to play the unseeded team with the poorer ARPI.  This is subject again, however, to the "no two teams from the same conference" rule.

Since you've worked on this for a number of years, once the bracket is set it would be great if you could do a study of teams' placement within the bracket and see if you can figure out exactly what the reasoning was that led to placement of teams within it. This would be the last piece of the puzzle in trying to "predict the bracket." Plus, it would allow an analysis from year to year to see where the Committee has deviated from its standard practice.

For the weaker conferences that are coming into focus here are teams that have a good chance to make the tourney:

Am. East:  Stony Brook has best ARPI (99) but four teams in the hunt with 5 wins in the conference:  ME, SB, Harford, and UMBC.  Probably only one team will come out of this conference.

Atl 10:  VCU has best ARPI(66) but Dayton is 5-0 in conference and Geo. Mason has 4 wins compared to VSU 3 wins.   Only one team will come out of this conference.

Atl Sun:  FLGC is favorite from this conference with ARPI of 69 and 6 wins in conference.   In the running are Jacksonville and Kennesaw St with 5 wins.  Only one team will come out of this conference.

Big Sky:   PSU ARPI of 108 and are undefeated in conference at 8-0-1.   N. Az has 6 wins is next closest.   Only one team likely from Big Sky.

Big South:  Radford has best ARPI of 94 and has 8 wins while Winthrop and Longwood have 7 wins.  Only one team out of this conference.

Big West:  UC-Irvine has best ARPI (72) but has only 4 wins in conference while Cal Poly has 6 wins.  Only one team likely from this conference

Conference USA:  Col C head and shoulders above competition in this conference with ARPI of 19 and 7 wins in conference.   They will likely make tourney whether they win conference tourney or not.   If they are upset then two teams would likely come out of conference.   N. Texas and FIU in the running.

Horizon:  Milwaukie has best ARPI (97) and best conference record 4-1.  Wright State and Oakland have 3 wins.  Only one team out of this conference.

Ivy:   Harvard has best record at 4-0 while Penn has best ARPI (48).   No conference tourney so auto bid will depend on final standings.   Penn is in bubble position too.

Metro Atl:  Monmouth has best ARPI (59) and has 8 conference wins.   Fairfield has 7 wins.  Only one team from this conference.

Mid American:  Four teams have 6 wins in conference.   E. Mich has best ARPI (107) but Miami, EMU, and CMU in the running.  Only one team out of this conference.

MVC:   Ill St is 4-0 and best ARPI (79).  Only one team out of this conference.

Mt West: SD St is 7-1 in conference while Utah St has best ARPI (112).  Fresno St and NM have more wins (6) than Utah St.  Only one team out of this conference.

NE:  Fairleigh Dickenson has best ARPI (151) while St Francis has best record 5-1.  Only one team out of this conference.

OVC:  Tenn-Martin has best record at 7-1 while Austin Peay has best ARPI (157) but poor conference record.  E. Illinois and Morehead St have 6 wins in conference.  Only one team out of this conference.

Patriot:   BU has best ARPI (52) while Navy has perfect 7-0 record.  These two are close to bubble.

Southern:   Furman has best record 6-1-1 and best ARPI (75).  Elon has 5 wins.  Only one team from this conference.

Southland:   SFA has best record at 8-1 and best ARPI (46) but Oral Roberts also has 8 wins.   SFA is in bubble position if they get upset.

SWAC:  Alabama St undefeated at 7-0 with ARPI of (288).  Enough said.

Summit:  Denver has ARPI of 13 and is 6-0.  SD St whose only loss is to Denver has ARPI of 188.  Most likely only 1 team from this conference.

Sunbelt: W. Kent has has ARPI (129) and best record at 6-2.   LA Laf is 5-2.  Only one team from this conference.

WAC: Seattle is 9-0 and ARPI of 70 and is like to bid from this conference.

Looking at the conferences I listed in the last post those total 22 automatic bids.   That leaves you with 64-22=42 for the rest of the conferences.  If someone like a Denver or Col C gets upset then that could take up 24 slots.   That leaves us with around 40 slots.   Let's look at those in rank 30 or better in ARPI which are likely in.   I'll include another 20 more teams that we can say are probably bubble teams.

By conference:  

American Athletic:  UCF 11 and Lou 19 are probably in.   Rut 34 and UConn 47 are on bubble.

ACC:   Vir 1, UNC 3, FSU 6, VT 10, ND 25 likely in.   Duke 25, MD 36, BC 32 have records close to 500 so they have to pass the 500 test first to be considered.

Big 12:  WV in at 21.   TT 33 and Texas 38 on the bubble.

Big East:   MQ 4 and GT 5 in.   DePaul at 45 on the bubble.

Big Ten:  Mich 7, Neb 8, PSU 9, Minn 22 likely in.    Ind 31, Wis 44, Iowa 49 on bubble.

Colonial.  One of W&M 41 and JM 39 will likely get auto bid and other on the bubble.

PAC 12:   UCLA 3, Stanford 16, and Col 23 likely in.  Cal was in but with loss to UO tonight drops to 43 and on the bubble.   WSU is likely in at 28 and Utah 37 on the bubble too.

SEC:   FL 12, S Car 17, Kent 26, Ole Miss 29, and A&M 30 likely in.   Georgia and Tenn on bubble at 38 and 48.

WCC:   ARPI are converging with SCU at 15, UP at 18 and BYU at 20.   Pep 40 on the bubble.

You have a good slate of regular season games this weekend.  The following week only the Ivy, Pac 12, and WCC have regular season games left.   All the others start their conference tourneys soon.

AWK has his bubble analysis out there if you want to compare. Not that different than what I came up with but he has more on his bubble list.

gnarly wrote:AWK has his bubble analysis out there if you want to compare.   Not that different than what I came up with but he has more on his bubble list.

His bubble list is based on the most poorly ranked teams, at this point in the season, that ultimately ended up getting into the bubble. So it's a pretty expansive list. I'm watching Missouri, which is outside even of AWK's bubble but has proved capable of beating very good teams -- Florida, South Carolina. Theoretically, they could get into the bubble if they pull off a series of upsets. I hope they do -- it will be good for the Pilots.

Your work is great. Keep it up!

We have our first automatic qualifier for NCAA with Harvard winning today and capturing crown in Ivy league.   Penn from that conference is on the bubble.

We have already had some conference tourney action in the American East, American Athletic, Big South,  Colonial, Metro Atlantic.  Many more conferences to see action tomorrow.

An early guess, but Harvard likely to go across town and play BC in first round of NCAA.

gnarly wrote:We have our first automatic qualifier for NCAA with Harvard winning today and capturing crown in Ivy league.   Penn from that conference is on the bubble. ....

Although Penn currently is on the bubble, its chances of getting into the NCAA Tournament are virtually nil. It simply does not have anywhere close to enough good results (i.e., wins or ties against top 50 teams) to get an at large selection. This is the same problem Dartmouth had last year. In general, the Ivies do not play tough enough schedules (or get enough wins/ties against tough teams, if they play them) to get at large selections.

I have a modified version of the RPI that I think is a significant improvement that I call the Iteration 5 URPI. It ranks Penn at #70, which is well outside the bubble and probably a much better indicator of Penn's performance.

With ULCA winning today and Stanford losing to WSU I believe UCLA now has the auto bid for Pac 12.   They are in position to get a #1 seed and host first 4 rounds if they advance.

Other action today.  First in conferences with only one team likely to come out:

Am. East:   Stony Brook and UMBC play next weekend for that slot.

Atl  10:  8 team tourney starts on 7th, Semi's on 8th and finals on 10th.

Atl Sun:  Top 4 seeds still in the hunt: FLGC, Kennesaw St, Jacksonville, and Mercer.

Big Sky:   4 team tourney here next weekend.

Big South:  Still in Radford, Liberty, HP, and Withrop.

Big West:   4 team tourney starting the 7th with Cal Poly, UC-Irv, CS-Full, and UC-Riverside.

Conf USA:  10 team tourney starts tomorrow.

Horizon:   6 team tourney starting the 5th.

Metro Atl:   Monmouth vs. Fairfield for the crown tomorrow.

Mid Am:  4 teams left for next weekend semis:   E. Mich, Miami, W. Mich, Ball St.

MVC:   4 teams left are Ill St, Ind St, Evansville, and Drake.

Mt West:   8 team tourney starts tomorrow.

NE:  4 team tourney next weekend of St Fr, FD, CCSU, and LIU.

OVC:   6 team tourney starts on the 7th.

Patriot:   6 team tourney starts on 5th.

Southern:   4 teams left are Furman, Samford, Elon, Wofford.

no info on Southland and SWAC but they both start on 7th.

Sun Belt:   8 team tourney on the 6th.

WAC:   4 team tourney starting on the 8th.

For the stronger conferences with good rpi.

Am. Ath:   UCF, Rutgers, S. FL, Memphis.   Louisville got upset but they should still get in NCAA with 20 ARPI.    UCF and Rut also likely to get in.   Others, only if they win conf tourney.

ACC:   Vir, UNC, FSU, and VT still alive in conference tourney.   Also making NCAA are WF, Duke, ND, and BC.   MD likely out.

I'll wait to comment on other strong conferences after we have the quarters finished.

gnarly, if the teams were seeded today, here are the likely seeds. I'm guessing you'll see a potential issue regarding game sites since the seeds appear to have first dibs on hosting, with the higher seeds getting to host if two seeds are at the same site in later rounds:

#1 SEEDS

Virginia
North Carolina
UCLA
Florida State

#2 SEEDS

Marquette
Michigan
Nebraska
UCF

#3 SEEDS

Georgetown
South Carolina
West Virginia
Virginia Tech

#4 SEEDS

Penn State
Florida
Santa Clara
Denver

You're the resident expert site manager. What do you think?

I'm struggling a bit with seeds with all the upsets we have today.

my #1s along with current ARPI are same as yours:
Vir 1, FSU 3, UNC 4, UCLA 6.  (if VT wins the final against FSU somebody gets bumped and VT gets a #1.  Two own goals in win by FSU might get noticed too.

#2s:  MQ 2, VT 5, Neb 7, FL 9 (I assume FL will win SEC)

#3:   UCF 12, Mich 8, PSU 10, UP 15 (might be a stretch but I think PSU, GT, S. Car, and Denver we jump over).

#4:   GT 11 (they haven't lost much but they lose big when they do.   Den 14 (also haven't played anyone tough.  WV 16, WSU 17.

Others S. Car 13, SCU 18 have real shot at seed.  Long shots for seeds:   A&M, BYU, and real long shot Iowa( if they beat PSU, Mich, and Neb in conf tourney (they beat first two already!))

Team that I feel could be bumped out of a seed by committee might be:  PSU, GT, S. Car. Denver and WV (will depend on whether they beat OK St in final)

We'll see how Sunday goes.

gnarly wrote:We'll see how Sunday goes.

I'm personally tempering all the excitement and looking forward to seeing how Saturday @ 2:30 @ Merlo goes.....

I'm with DD, the BIG DEAL for the moment is this afternoon's game against San Fran.

But, with that in the forefront, here are my scientifically projected seeds following Friday's games (and, they really are scientifically projected).  Only the #1 seeds are in order:

1 SEEDS

Florida State
Virginia
North Carolina
UCLA

2 SEEDS

Marquette
Virginia Tech
Nebraska
UCF

3 SEEDS

South Carolina
West Virginia
Michigan
Portland

4 SEEDS

Florida
Penn State
Georgetown
Wake Forest

Now for the unscientific part.  Gnarly, you will appreciate this:

Looking at the #1 and #2 seeds, who will host the second weekend's games, there is only one West coast team, UCLA.  That would create a big expense problem for the NCAA.  They need another West coast team in the #2 seed group.  In my system, Portland is the top team among the #3 seeds.  If everything else were to hold in place, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Committee break precedent and give the Pilots a #2 seed to help with the geographic problem.  Most likely, UCF would drop to a #3.

If the Pilots were to creep up the rankings into the #13 ARPI spot, I'd be very confident about them getting a #2.  That seems unlikely, however, so the question will be whether geographic constraints cause the Committee to give them a #2 anyway.  The Committee could justify this, since the Pilots' record against the teams in the bracket will be the 6th strongest among the top 25 teams.

You have point there on the travel concern.   We're likely to see UCLA, SCU, UP, Denver, (Col or Col C),BYU, Stanford, WSU win first round games and need to land somewhere for second weekend.   They probably will want a non Pac 12 team to host since Pac 12 likely to have several teams at the dance.

Looks like PSU lost to Webber St in PK shootout (too bad for them after winning reg season title).   Thus, we lost likely dance partner.   Weber probably now goes to BYU.   Seattle is possibility if they win tomorrow.

Too bad about PSU. Would have been fun to play them in the first round, and there would have been a great crowd.

Quietly, UP has been battling BYU all year for the average attendance crown. BYU was ahead for most of the year, but the UP pulled in front just recently. Before the Santa Clara game, we were ahead 3110 to 3107. Yikes.

We out-drew them on Thursday (2318-1523) and today (2369-2148), but it's still close enough overall that they could overtake us if they significantly outdraw us for the playoffs.

So, part of me was hoping Portland State would have made it through, if for not other reason than it might bring a few more fans to Merlo next weekend.  

Stonehouse wrote:Too bad about PSU. Would have been fun to play them in the first round, and there would have been a great crowd.

Quietly, UP has been battling BYU all year for the average attendance crown. BYU was ahead for most of the year, but the UP pulled in front just recently. Before the Santa Clara game, we were ahead 3110 to 3107. Yikes.

We out-drew them on Thursday (2318-1523) and today (2369-2148), but it's still close enough overall that they could overtake us if they significantly outdraw us for the playoffs.

So, part of me was hoping Portland State would have made it through, if for not other reason than it might bring a few more fans to Merlo next weekend.  

Won't be an issue, we'll pack the place.

VillaGorilla wrote:Won't be an issue, we'll pack the place.

I want to believe that, but past history indicates otherwise. Yes, we sold out a game in 5 minutes in 2005, but early round playoff games at Merlo Field haven't been sold out in several years, and last year was barely half-capacity:

2012: 2518 (1st)
2010: 3177 (1st), 3003 (2nd)
2009: 3003 (1st), 3003 (2nd)
2008: 3582 (1st), 3644 (2nd)

How we hit 3003 three times is a bit of a mystery to me, but the overall point remains - if we get around 3,000 fans (which seems to be about the average) and BYU gets a lot more than that, our streak could be in jeopardy.

Bottom line? Buy a ticket for you and several friends!!!!

More to the point, buy a ticket for a student. They don get in on their student plans for tournament games.

I guess "pack" is a relative term. Only at UP can people be underwhelmed by a turnout of 3K. I suppose we'd better get it in gear for what I can only assume would be a Saturday game.

VillaGorilla wrote:I guess "pack" is a relative term.  Only at UP can people be underwhelmed by a turnout of 3K.  I suppose we'd better get it in gear for what I can only assume would be a Saturday game.

Saturday @ 7:00 pm, assuming the Pilots are awarded the game. Possibly against Seattle.

VillaGorilla wrote:I guess "pack" is a relative term.  Only at UP can people be underwhelmed by a turnout of 3K.  I suppose we'd better get it in gear for what I can only assume would be a Saturday game.

I think you misunderstand me. I'm not casting aspersions on our fans for "only" showing up 3,000 strong. Believe me, I am well aware that this is beyond anomalous for women's college soccer.

My point was that if we get about 3,000 for the first round game - as we have over the past few years - we might be in jeopardy of losing our streak of leading the nation in average attendance, which is a huge point of pride for our school and our fans.

I will post my seeds later today.  For now I'll post first round match ups based on geography.   I won't try and predict the whole draw.   Even AWK can't figure the committee logic on who is in.

First:  Yes I agree Seattle our out WAC likely to come to Merlo Sat night.  We closer than Pullman.

Amer East:  UMBC to GT
Atl 10: LaSalle to VT
Atl Sun: Jacksonville to UCF
Big Sky:  Weber St to BYU
Big South:   Liberty to Vir
Big West:  CS - Full to UCLA
Colonial: NE to BU
Horizon:  Mil to MQ
Metro Atl: Monmouth to Rut
Mid American:  W. Mich to Mich
MVC: Ill St to Neb
Mt W:  SD St to SCU
NE:   St Fr to PSU
OVC:   Morehead St to UNC
Southern:  Furman to S. Car
Southland:   SE LA to A&M
SWAC:  Jackson St to FSU
Sunbelt:   S. AL to FL

Likely to be mixing of extras Pac 12, Big Ten, ACC and SEC.   Not enough teams from the West and Rocky Mt states so there will be teams going and coming in those areas.

Let's look at final RPI
Top 8: Vir, MQ, FSU, NEB, UNC, UCLA, BT Mich
9-16: PSU, FL, UCF, GT, S. Car, Den, WV, A&M
17-24: UP, WSU, Col C, SCU, Stan, Lou, BYU, WF
25-32: Minn, Iowa, Ind, Duke, Ole Miss, Rut, ND, and TT

My #1: Vir FSU, UNC, UCLA
#2: MQ, VT, NEB, UCF
#3 Mich, FL, A&M, UP (with current rpi of 17 too much of a stretch to get to 2 seed, but we have seen weird stuff before)
#4 S Car, WV, WSU, PSU

(GT and Denver I moved out of seeding position.


Here are some other possible first round matchups. I used AWK field of teams.

ND/IND
Col C/Denver both weaker than their rpi.
Kent/Duke
Lou/OH St
WF/Geo
Ark/Ok St
TT/Iowa
Minn/Depaul
Wis/WSU.
St Johns/Harvard
Utah/ WV
S. FL/ Stanford
Cal/Ole Miss (going to be some odd ones and if Cal makes it they get
shipped somewhere)

I think my comment on Cal was too strong.   Some teams will get shipped and we'll have a few odd first round pairings (Remember Auburn to UW a couple years ago which is about as far as you could travel.) Cal might only be over to SCU, and SD St goes to Stanford.   Too many possibilities.