RPI Report for Games thru 11/4/07

Here's a new RPI report for games through 11/4/07. The NCAA will be coming out with its report for those games either later today or tomorrow. They will show only the team rankings and not the different RPI elements that I am showing. Differences between my report and the NCAA report may be attributable to data inconsistencies (the NSCAA/Adidas webpage is not completely reliable under any circumstance and tends to either miss data or post it late during the end of season conference tournaments) or to my failure to have correctly identified the NCAA's bonus/penalty adjustments. I am pretty close on the bonuses but have not done that much work on the penalties since they don't have much effect on the selection and seeding of Tournament teams. I'm going to show only the top 100 teams. If anyone is interested in more, let me know and I'll find a way to email you the entire report.

Looking forward, it appears to me that the Pilots, if they win on Saturday, will be in the top 8 of the RPI but not in the top 4. Whether they somehow get one of the four #1 seeds therefore will depend on whether the other criteria can outweigh the RPI.

The items in the list are the Adjusted RPI Rank, the Team, Element 1 of the RPI, Element 2 of the RPI, Element 3 of the RPI, the Unadjusted RPI, and the Adjusted RPI. Sorry the formatting isn't better, but it's hard to go from Excel to this page.

1 North Carolina U 0.8333 0.6409 0.5871 0.675570 0.700170
2 Penn State 0.8158 0.6614 0.5741 0.678163 0.699463
3 UCLA 0.8824 0.6287 0.5740 0.678428 0.697378
4 USC 0.8235 0.6248 0.5799 0.663234 0.675834
5 Stanford 0.8056 0.6164 0.5793 0.654416 0.669916
6 Tennessee U 0.7778 0.6231 0.5868 0.652691 0.668491
7 Texas A&M 0.8684 0.5933 0.5687 0.655941 0.667441
8 Portland U 0.8235 0.6008 0.5683 0.648338 0.659338
9 Georgia U 0.8421 0.5777 0.5770 0.643625 0.655575
10 Wake Forest 0.6579 0.6540 0.5885 0.638626 0.654326
11 San Diego U 0.8158 0.5863 0.5600 0.637106 0.648956
12 Virginia U 0.7222 0.6104 0.5938 0.634208 0.646808
13 Purdue 0.8500 0.5436 0.5727 0.627484 0.640934
14 James Madison 0.8158 0.5876 0.5408 0.632949 0.638049
15 Notre Dame 0.7632 0.5919 0.5601 0.626741 0.636341
16 Florida U 0.7368 0.5884 0.5780 0.622902 0.633602
17 West Virginia U 0.7368 0.6025 0.5526 0.623596 0.631946
18 Indiana U 0.6842 0.6247 0.5593 0.623203 0.630453
19 Florida State 0.6944 0.6068 0.5667 0.618686 0.629586
20 South Carolina U 0.7000 0.6001 0.5516 0.612932 0.624032
21 Louisville 0.7368 0.5887 0.5506 0.616186 0.623886
22 Texas U 0.7632 0.5695 0.5544 0.614154 0.623304
23 Santa Clara 0.6579 0.6021 0.5734 0.608882 0.620032
24 William and Mary 0.7632 0.5760 0.5351 0.612567 0.619867
25 Clemson 0.6389 0.6200 0.5628 0.610421 0.617721
26 Boston College 0.6944 0.5929 0.5600 0.610062 0.615612
27 UCF 0.7500 0.5598 0.5551 0.606149 0.613149
28 LSU 0.7000 0.5833 0.5557 0.605599 0.612699
29 UNC Greensboro 0.8056 0.5485 0.5208 0.605846 0.609746
30 Hofstra 0.8333 0.5308 0.5335 0.607096 0.609496
31 Missouri U 0.6667 0.5779 0.5658 0.597057 0.606657
32 Charlotte 0.7632 0.5493 0.5358 0.599387 0.606587
33 California U 0.7059 0.5574 0.5731 0.598447 0.606047
34 Ohio State 0.5789 0.6130 0.5722 0.594292 0.603692
35 Duke 0.6111 0.5859 0.5897 0.593172 0.601922
36 Illinois U 0.6765 0.5625 0.5776 0.594735 0.600985
37 Connecticut U 0.6944 0.5667 0.5495 0.594344 0.597344
38 Memphis 0.8056 0.5124 0.5403 0.592645 0.596045
39 Samford 0.7778 0.5410 0.4996 0.589818 0.593818
40 Arizona State 0.5000 0.6470 0.5556 0.587385 0.590885
41 Georgetown 0.7000 0.5534 0.5393 0.586495 0.590695
42 Dayton 0.7105 0.5575 0.5219 0.586841 0.587791
43 Oklahoma State 0.6842 0.5433 0.5462 0.579255 0.587105
44 Auburn 0.5833 0.5864 0.5622 0.579572 0.585372
45 Colorado U 0.5526 0.6140 0.5450 0.581382 0.584282
46 Miami FL 0.5789 0.5758 0.5651 0.573932 0.583032
47 Kentucky U 0.6053 0.5782 0.5538 0.578859 0.582159
48 Northwestern U 0.5789 0.5914 0.5432 0.576214 0.580314
49 BYU 0.7895 0.4810 0.5541 0.576379 0.576979
50 Long Beach State 0.6842 0.5427 0.5354 0.576226 0.575626
51 Virginia Tech 0.5278 0.5927 0.5674 0.570142 0.574892
52 Marquette 0.7000 0.5280 0.5370 0.573263 0.574813
53 Mississippi U 0.5000 0.5995 0.5690 0.566983 0.572033
54 Colorado College 0.6389 0.5501 0.5271 0.566562 0.570562
55 Loyola Marymount 0.6944 0.5166 0.5420 0.567419 0.570519
56 Washington State 0.6765 0.5241 0.5448 0.567352 0.568202
57 UNLV 0.6579 0.5342 0.5383 0.566125 0.568175
58 Yale 0.6250 0.5613 0.5248 0.568092 0.566892
59 Pennsylvania U 0.7813 0.4776 0.5181 0.563654 0.566104
60 Villanova 0.6905 0.5105 0.5336 0.561251 0.566001
61 Western Illinois 0.8438 0.4713 0.4736 0.564974 0.565674
62 Utah U 0.6842 0.5148 0.5389 0.563159 0.565309
63 Hawaii U 0.7222 0.5137 0.5214 0.567770 0.565170
64 Pepperdine 0.4444 0.6261 0.5543 0.562745 0.564495
65 East Carolina 0.6389 0.5515 0.5109 0.563213 0.561963
66 Iowa U 0.5263 0.5865 0.5394 0.559662 0.561862
67 CS Fullerton 0.6053 0.5534 0.5337 0.561439 0.560889
68 Davidson 0.7632 0.4852 0.5092 0.560683 0.559783
69 Virginia Commonwealth 0.5789 0.5587 0.5388 0.558792 0.559592
70 Iowa State 0.5556 0.5544 0.5427 0.551755 0.556255
71 Kennesaw State 0.8333 0.4524 0.4882 0.556581 0.555981
72 SE Missouri 0.8000 0.4603 0.4940 0.553632 0.553332
73 Rhode Island U 0.6500 0.5224 0.5162 0.552774 0.552824
74 Kansas U 0.4500 0.5905 0.5560 0.546761 0.551961
75 Minnesota U 0.5278 0.5453 0.5749 0.548288 0.551688
76 Oregon U 0.5278 0.5702 0.5441 0.553063 0.551413
77 UAB 0.5556 0.5531 0.5289 0.547670 0.551120
78 UNC Wilmington 0.5556 0.5686 0.5217 0.553637 0.550187
79 Western Kentucky 0.7941 0.4482 0.5103 0.550196 0.546846
80 Saint Louis 0.6471 0.5196 0.5122 0.549603 0.546753
81 Harvard 0.6563 0.5099 0.5153 0.547840 0.546740
82 Rutgers 0.5000 0.5837 0.5223 0.547447 0.545997
83 Alabama U 0.4750 0.5865 0.5287 0.544180 0.545180
84 Denver 0.6667 0.4952 0.5176 0.543664 0.544314
85 Columbia 0.5625 0.5463 0.5050 0.540026 0.540476
86 Wisconsin Milwaukee 0.7105 0.4786 0.4952 0.540698 0.540098
87 SMU 0.5588 0.5302 0.5327 0.538005 0.539405
88 Texas Tech 0.5000 0.5492 0.5481 0.536629 0.538429
89 Arizona U 0.3421 0.6239 0.5530 0.535718 0.538168
90 Furman 0.7105 0.4699 0.5016 0.537956 0.537956
91 Duquesne 0.6471 0.5009 0.5018 0.537654 0.537654
92 Ball State 0.7105 0.4878 0.4921 0.544552 0.537302
93 Loyola MD 0.5833 0.5327 0.5018 0.537650 0.536650
94 Georgia State 0.5278 0.5513 0.5191 0.537381 0.536231
95 Fordham 0.6667 0.4969 0.5041 0.541144 0.536144
96 Wyoming U 0.5000 0.5577 0.5170 0.533085 0.535085
97 Washington U 0.3235 0.6332 0.5441 0.533513 0.534863
98 College of Charleston 0.5789 0.5344 0.4962 0.535971 0.533071
99 Mississippi State 0.3421 0.6189 0.5401 0.529987 0.532887
100 New Mexico U 0.5882 0.5079 0.5214 0.531383 0.531983

Thanks for all the work. On a very positive positive note, I have heard (but don't know for a fact) that after we got shipped out two years ago, the NCAA changed their traveling requirements. My understanding is that if you are a top 8 RPI you won't travel even if there is no one else in the 350 mile radius. So getting, and staying, at 8 is very important.

Great job, UPSoccerFanatic. You've taken a lot of the mystery out of the RPI. Your numbers will be a big help when the NCAA keeps the end of season numbers to themselves.



It's a little unclear if the teams in the top 4 , or top 8 won't have to travel. I spent a bit of time on the NCAA website to see if that determination is posted, but it's not, that I could find. I did find the ruling that changed the distance from 300 to 350 miles, and they'll seed 16 teams,(4 from each region). but that's all.

Can anybody get a clarification fro the Athletic dept?

Someone at the Athletic Department is checking this. Hopefully, they'll be able to find out and so will we. One of the problems is that the minutes of the NCAA Women's Soccer Committee, which used to be available over the internet, have not been available recently. I don't know if that's changed or not. I guess I'll have to check and see.

See my note on this under the College Cup topic. It's the #1 seeds only that have a preference. And, it appears even that isn't assured. Go Vikings, Win the Big Sky Tournament.

Here's the official RPI:

http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2007WSOrpi1.html

Top 20

1 Penn St.
2 North Carolina
3 UCLA
4 Southern California
5 Stanford
6 Tennessee
7 Texas A&M
8 Portland
9 Georgia
10 Wake Forest
11 San Diego
12 Virginia
13 Purdue
14 West Virginia
15 James Madison
16 Notre Dame
17 Florida
18 Indiana
19 Florida St.
20 Louisville

Hats off to UPSoccerFanatic... you were nearly dead on!

Wow!

That's amazing! Somebody needs to write the NCAA and tell them they got West Virginia wrong...

Hmm.... server is down as I recheck.

They are probably fixing their mistake now....

For those who are interested, once I have the NCAA's RPI report in my lot little hands, as I do now, I take their team W-L-T records and home-away-neutral numbers and match them with mine, to see if there are any data differences between us. Once I find data differences, I have to track down who is right. Most of the time, they are, and once in a while, I am. If they're right, I correct my data and if I'm right, I send their Women's D1 soccer person an email indicating the error and how I verified it. I'm going through that process now and, once I'm done, will go through a bunch of tedious steps and then re-run my RPI program. I've found two data errors (both mine) that for sure will correct my Penn State/North Carolina reversal and most likely will correct my West Virginia positioning. So, it looks like I'm either on or extremely close to the money with my RPI bonus formula, which had been a big worry for me.

My experience in doing this project has indicated to me that the likely reason people have had trouble reproducing the NCAA's calculations in the past most likely is data errors.

Once this weekend's games are done, I'll do another RPI run so those of you who are interested can have the numbers before or soon after the bracket announcement.

GO PILOTS! AND, GO VIKINGS!

We can't count Washington State out yet. They are currently at #58 in the RPI and since there are 14 projected conference winners outside of the top 64, they only need to get to #50 to get a berth in a "perfect" system in which the selection committee takes only the 31 conference winners and the next top 33 RPI teams. They host UCLA and USC this weekend, so they've got an opportunity to gain some points with either wins/ties. And heck... maybe even simply playing those teams will help get them up a few points, even if they lose. UPSoccerFanatic can help out with that question... I'm guessing that a 1-1 or 0-1-1 showing over the weekend will help their RPI. Am I correct in guessing that?

The Pac-10's strength may actually work against them... will the selection committee take six Pac-10 teams? (UCLA, Stanford, USC, Cal and Arizona St. are presumed locks.) But if they pull out a win against UCLA or USC this weekend, I think that would make them impossible to leave out.

So.... GO COUGS!!!!

Note to weather gods:
Let it be cold and rainy this weekend on the Palouse.
I'm talkin' southern California girls wearing gloves and ear muffs huddling to keep warm.

Note to groundskeepers:
soggy field, 4" turf is about right--none of that Bermuda short grass up here--

I'll be pointing the Purple Rabbits' foot your way.

Go Cougars!!

No worries, Geezer. It's always cold and rainy on the Palouse!

Glad I've got natural web feet for our game Saturday. I'll be soaking up the rain, same as they soak up the sun in good old Cal.ee.forn.i.a!

Go Cougars and all other NW teams with a shot this final week-end! (The Vikings? Did I dream that?)

UP's RPI and National Ranking just got a huge boost.

Texas A&M had to go to PK's to advance in their conference tournament.

Counts as a tie in the RPI, (1/2 win, 1/2 loss)
Counts as a tie in the record books.
I'm sure we'll eventually get to see how much it hurt their RPI, but it's sure to go down. They were 7th, we were 8th in the last RPI.
Iowa St's RPI was 63.

A&M was only a couple points above UP in some polls, so we should leapfrog them there.

GO Pilots!!

NICE!!! Any little bit helps... though I think the polls, unfortunately, don't have influence on seeding. If they did, then we would have gotten a seed last year when we were ranked, what, fifth or sixth heading into the playoffs.

another school that had a higher RPI then we did, lost.

Tennessee ( #6 RPI) lost its first game in the SEC tournament , falling to S. Carolina 2-0.

you will recall that S. Carolina Knocked off N. Carolina in the first game of this wacky season.

Go Pilots!!

Nice nice nice!!! That's two down... getting in front of the rest might be tricky though.

I now have Tennessee having dropped below us in the "unadjusted" RPI and we're just barely below Texas A&M. And, it looks like we may be within reach of Stanford. Let's root for the Ducks and Beavers to beat on the Cardinal this weekend. And, if we could get some help from the Cougs or Huskies against USC and/or UCLA it will make things really interesting. We want things to be grey enough based on all the other criteria that the Tournament Committee has to get to the criterion that considers the last 8 games. Of course, that means we've got to win on Saturday and we're going to!