RPI End of Season Report, All Regular Season Games

Wow, what a day! Texas downs TAMU! Beavers, unfortunately, lose to Stanford. Purdue wins! CS Fullerton wins! Yale wins! Florida State, unfortunately, loses to North Carolina. And, best shocker of the day, Wazoo downs USC!

Now, before you read on, take a test: Which would be a better practice for the NCAA Tournament Committee to follow: Treat the RPI as only identifying bunches of teams that then have to be sorted out using other criteria -- or -- Treat the RPI as being extremely precise and reliable so that Tournament selections and seeds should follow it exactly?

Write your answer here: ....

Enough of that. Below are the RPI numbers I come up with. I tried to include a list with all 314 teams, but that was too big. So, I've included only the top 100. Remember, I could have made some errors in entering data, although my data through last weekend's games should be good and I was very careful with data entry this week. Also, remember that I don't necessarily have the exactly correct bonus adjustment formula although I'm very close if not right on; and I know I don't have the correct penalty formula although that would not be pertinent to seeds and only would be slightly pertinent to the selection of at large teams, since none of the likely seeds have penalties and the teams under consideration for selection for at large spots typically have, at most, only minimal penalties.

Also remember that the Tournament Committee considers several factors, one of which is the RPI. The other factors are in the opening entry in an earlier RPI topic, so refer to that if you don't know or remember the other factors. A member of the Tournament Committee has advised me that the different members of the Tournament Committee have their own attitudes toward the RPI and towards how important each criterion is.

So, here are the numbers. Sorry they don't line up, that would be beyond my capabilities and patience.

Teams 4 through 9 are very close, but ... Holy Guacamole! GO PILOTS!

Team RPI Rank RPI Element 1 RPI Element 2 RPI Element 3 Unadjusted RPI Adjusted RPI

North Carolina U 1 0.8333 0.6326 0.5911 0.672425 0.701525
UCLA 2 0.8947 0.6057 0.5736 0.669934 0.690284
Penn State 3 0.8095 0.6365 0.5776 0.665044 0.689044
Portland U 4 0.8333 0.5965 0.5650 0.647823 0.659823
Stanford 5 0.8000 0.5980 0.5728 0.642205 0.658155
Texas A&M 6 0.8182 0.5955 0.5650 0.643512 0.656562
USC 7 0.7895 0.5998 0.5764 0.641363 0.653963
Georgia U 8 0.8182 0.5778 0.5749 0.637190 0.652740
Tennessee U 9 0.7368 0.6131 0.5808 0.635972 0.651772
Purdue 10 0.8696 0.5380 0.5760 0.630376 0.649826
Florida U 11 0.7727 0.5912 0.5759 0.632742 0.649442
West Virginia U 12 0.7619 0.6073 0.5541 0.632619 0.644219
Wake Forest 13 0.6429 0.6397 0.5850 0.626813 0.643463
Notre Dame 14 0.7619 0.6015 0.5575 0.630593 0.642293
Virginia U 15 0.7000 0.6127 0.5886 0.628508 0.640758
San Diego U 16 0.8250 0.5642 0.5569 0.627553 0.640553
Florida State 17 0.6905 0.6186 0.5701 0.624442 0.639692
James Madison 18 0.7857 0.5897 0.5393 0.626122 0.631622
Texas U 19 0.7500 0.5790 0.5537 0.615417 0.627667
South Carolina U 20 0.6818 0.6098 0.5542 0.613893 0.626393
Hofstra 21 0.8500 0.5382 0.5367 0.615754 0.620354
UCF 22 0.7381 0.5726 0.5495 0.608194 0.617394
Louisville 23 0.7000 0.5928 0.5505 0.609029 0.616729
Santa Clara 24 0.6750 0.5907 0.5656 0.605502 0.616652
Indiana U 25 0.6500 0.6115 0.5606 0.608407 0.615657
William and Mary 26 0.7500 0.5700 0.5352 0.606330 0.612580
Clemson 27 0.6053 0.6249 0.5623 0.604351 0.611151
Ohio State 28 0.5682 0.6233 0.5711 0.596474 0.608974
Memphis 29 0.8333 0.5173 0.5407 0.602164 0.606964
Charlotte 30 0.7857 0.5385 0.5352 0.599499 0.606699
California U 31 0.7368 0.5418 0.5657 0.596535 0.605535
UNC Greensboro 32 0.7750 0.5492 0.5179 0.597855 0.603155
LSU 33 0.6591 0.5796 0.5573 0.593888 0.601338
Boston College 34 0.6579 0.5848 0.5587 0.596535 0.600835
Missouri U 35 0.6500 0.5735 0.5635 0.590124 0.599724
Samford 36 0.7750 0.5436 0.4980 0.590033 0.593483
Illinois U 37 0.6316 0.5719 0.5692 0.586150 0.592850
Connecticut U 38 0.6944 0.5584 0.5443 0.588894 0.591894
Dayton 39 0.7143 0.5612 0.5221 0.589676 0.591826
Duke 40 0.5789 0.5798 0.5881 0.581675 0.590425
Oklahoma State 41 0.6905 0.5381 0.5489 0.578910 0.587460
Arizona State 42 0.5250 0.6241 0.5582 0.582864 0.586364
BYU 43 0.8182 0.4807 0.5518 0.582862 0.584462
Colorado U 44 0.5500 0.6104 0.5444 0.578776 0.583776
Georgetown 45 0.6667 0.5566 0.5382 0.579517 0.583717
Auburn 46 0.5789 0.5812 0.5601 0.575363 0.581863
Washington State 47 0.6579 0.5515 0.5489 0.577467 0.580317
Miami FL 48 0.5750 0.5726 0.5653 0.571362 0.578962
Northwestern U 49 0.5500 0.5952 0.5418 0.570542 0.574642
Kentucky U 50 0.5750 0.5772 0.5531 0.570636 0.573936
Marquette 51 0.7000 0.5228 0.5369 0.570636 0.573386
UNLV 52 0.6429 0.5471 0.5347 0.567946 0.571196
Pennsylvania U 53 0.7941 0.4837 0.5150 0.569105 0.569955
Loyola Marymount 54 0.6579 0.5339 0.5392 0.566209 0.569309
Yale 55 0.6471 0.5538 0.5248 0.569860 0.567660
Hawaii U 56 0.7500 0.5077 0.5147 0.570034 0.567434
Virginia Tech 57 0.5278 0.5785 0.5647 0.562363 0.567363
Kennesaw State 58 0.8500 0.4649 0.4860 0.566445 0.564845
Virginia Commonwealth 59 0.5682 0.5777 0.5380 0.565415 0.564315
Mississippi U 60 0.4750 0.5986 0.5673 0.559893 0.563243
Colorado College 61 0.6053 0.5445 0.5273 0.555380 0.560380
CS Fullerton 62 0.6190 0.5498 0.5277 0.561614 0.560214
Iowa U 63 0.5000 0.5921 0.5444 0.557141 0.560091
Long Beach State 64 0.6500 0.5330 0.5320 0.562004 0.559604
Iowa State 65 0.5526 0.5590 0.5454 0.554007 0.559207
Furman 66 0.7381 0.4898 0.5035 0.555300 0.559100
Utah U 67 0.6667 0.5074 0.5423 0.555976 0.558126
Western Illinois 68 0.8056 0.4732 0.4770 0.557242 0.557942
SE Missouri 69 0.7941 0.4718 0.4923 0.557493 0.557693
Pepperdine 70 0.4211 0.6236 0.5484 0.554164 0.557414
East Carolina 71 0.6053 0.5582 0.5133 0.558748 0.557248
Villanova 72 0.6667 0.5063 0.5328 0.552986 0.556136
Oregon U 73 0.5000 0.5855 0.5439 0.553700 0.552550
Davidson 74 0.7250 0.4908 0.5056 0.553060 0.551960
Denver 75 0.6905 0.4985 0.5164 0.550985 0.551635
Rhode Island U 76 0.6500 0.5176 0.5159 0.550281 0.550331
Minnesota U 77 0.5263 0.5439 0.5716 0.546417 0.550317
Loyola MD 78 0.6250 0.5365 0.4969 0.548742 0.547742
Kansas U 79 0.4286 0.5886 0.5532 0.539737 0.544937
Rutgers 80 0.5000 0.5776 0.5223 0.544364 0.542514
Saint Louis 81 0.6111 0.5275 0.5136 0.544914 0.542514
Wisconsin Milwaukee 82 0.7143 0.4794 0.4956 0.542177 0.541577
Western Kentucky 83 0.7632 0.4548 0.5053 0.544537 0.540087
UAB 84 0.5263 0.5467 0.5265 0.536542 0.539992
Fordham 85 0.6250 0.5203 0.5050 0.542672 0.538622
UNC Wilmington 86 0.5263 0.5596 0.5224 0.541985 0.538535
Alabama U 87 0.4750 0.5742 0.5292 0.538153 0.538303
Washington U 88 0.2895 0.6546 0.5480 0.536681 0.538031
UTEP 89 0.6190 0.5125 0.5059 0.537506 0.537956
Columbia 90 0.5882 0.5297 0.5053 0.538237 0.537687
Harvard 91 0.6176 0.5186 0.5085 0.540863 0.537563
Illinois State 92 0.6667 0.4911 0.4957 0.536140 0.535440
SMU 93 0.5588 0.5204 0.5328 0.533076 0.534476
North Texas 94 0.6364 0.5092 0.4831 0.534491 0.534091
Ball State 95 0.7000 0.4855 0.4913 0.540567 0.532467
Florida Atlantic 96 0.5526 0.5431 0.5064 0.536298 0.530448
Rice 97 0.6000 0.4950 0.5274 0.529351 0.530151
Georgia State 98 0.5278 0.5403 0.5184 0.531661 0.530061
Gonzaga 99 0.6250 0.4904 0.5290 0.533698 0.529848
Middle Tennessee 100 0.6250 0.5002 0.5033 0.532168 0.529268

Woo----Hoooo!!!

Having been too chicken to plant that big wet one on Larry Williams, I now officially name you deserving of the Geezer sloppy kiss award.


I'm gonna be walking around with a bit less trepidation. Between that and the other criteria, we're a #1 lock, Washington State or no.

Thanks UPSoccerFanatic, you are a peach!

YESSSS!!!!

UPSoccerFanatic, you are truly amazing!

So-- is it fair to say that USC's loss knocked Stanford's RPI below ours?

here they are, with the rankings that UPsoccerFanatic compiled (I'm still stunned)



America East-- Boston University+100
Atlantic Coast Conference-- North Carolina 1
Atlantic Sun-- Kennesaw State 58
Atlantic Ten-- Charlotte 30
Big East-- West Virginia 12
Big Sky-- Sacramento State +100
Big South-- High Point +100
Big Ten-- Purdue 10
Big Twelve Conference-- Texas 19
Big West-- Cal State Fullerton 62
Colonial Athletic Association-- Hofstra 21
Conference USA-- Memphis 29
Horizon League-- Loyola Chicago +100
Ivy League-- Penn 53
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference-- Loyola MD 78
Mid-American Conference-- Toledo +100
Missouri Valley-- Creighton +100
Mountain West-- BYU 43
Northeast Conference-- Monmouth +100
Ohio Valley-- Southeast Missouri State- 69
Pacific Ten-- UCLA 2
Patriot League-- Navy +100
Southeastern Conference-- Florida 11
Southern Conference-- Furman 66
Southland Conference-- Stephen F. Austin +100
Southwestern Conference-- Alabama A&M +100
Summit League-- Oakland MI +100
Sun Belt-- Denver 75
West Coast-- Portland 4
Western Athletic Conference-- Hawaii 56

By my count, Washington State snuck in at #47

Somebody wanna check?

I have 15 teams over 64 getting automatics, which leaves 49 teams.

Geezer, with all the inner workings of the RPI, we'd have to look at all of Stanford's opponents this year, and those opponents' opponents, to see what happened to them this weekend. In any event, their win against the Beavers (whose record and whose opponents' records are not that good so that they may have pulled Stanford down some) apparently didn't help that much. Plus, the combined games of their Pac 10 opponents who played today were 50-50 (i.e., as many Pac 10 teams won games as lost them, obviously), so that tended to pull Stanford's opponents' RPIs towards .5000. Maybe that helped.

There will be 34 at large teams. By my count, just using the RPI, Washington State would be #36 on the list. Very close.

Also, looking at the conference champions and the obvious at large picks, it looks to me like the west coast will get only 3 sites for first/second round games. There just aren't going to be enough teams from the west coast to allow more without much more flying around than the NCAA is likely to tolerate. If San Diego gets a seed, then there will be 5 west coast seeds, meaning 2 of them are going to have to travel.

Teams that likely will have to fly no matter what are Hawaii, BYU, Denver (if Colorado doesn't get in), Creighton (is any other team within 350 miles of them?), and Oklahoma State (same question for them). Could we end up with Hawaii, BYU, and Denver coming here?

Missourri is within 350 miles of Omaha (Creighton).

Hawaii and BYU sound right. Maybe Sac state instead of Denver.

Sometimes we've gotten East coast teams in the first two rounds-- fares are cheaper coast-to-coast.

I think there will be 2 East coast (UNC, Penn State) and 2 West coast (UCLA and UP) #1's That leaves another West cast in the Bay area, and a another S. california site. The won't have to fly anyone, probably.

Someone is sure to get hosed playing a seed in the second round, though (happened last year)

UPSoccerFanatic,

you are right about Washington State. If RPI is all they look at, they won't make it.
19 automatics have RPI's higher than 47 , which leaves the cutoff at 45.

They need to look for other criteria (how about beating a ranked team and tying one a the end of the season?)

LMU seems like they are on the outside looking in as well - they are at 54. The Lions didn't impress me too much on Saturday night, but they ran into a Pilot buzzsaw. It would be nice to get four WCC teams back into the tourney. Oh well.

On the question of why Stanford, which was right behind us in the RPI before their Sunday win over Oregon State, did not end up ahead of us (if my calculations are correct), here's what happened to the teams they've played this year on Sunday:

Notre Dame tied: For Notre Dame, a tie would push its win-loss percentage downward because ties count as half a win and half a loss. This would hurt Stanford's RPI.

Cal, UCLA, and Washington State won; and their opponents, Oregon, Washington, and USC, lost. This means that Cal's, UCLA's, and Washington State's RPIs most likely went up; but Oregon's, Washington's, and USC's RPIs most likely went down. An interesting feature of the RPI is that in determining the second element (opponents' winning percentages) and third element (opponents' opponents' winning percentages), you don't add all the games won and lost (with ties at half/half) together and compute the percentage. Instead, you compute each team's percentage and then take the average of the percentages. The effect of this is that an opponent that plays less games receives the same weight as an opponent that plays more games. In any event, when the pluses and minuses were added together, it's likely that the effect of the three non-Stanford Pac 10 games was to push the second element of Stanford's RPI (opponents' average winning percentages) downward towards .500.

In addition, Oregon State's contribution to the second and third elements of Stanford's RPI would have caused a reduction in those elements. Oregon State's winning percentage, not counting the Stanford game (which is how the NCAA does it), was .4250, which is pretty low. In addition, Oregon States' opponents' winning percentages were .4950, which also is pretty low. These would have pulled the second and third elements of the RPI downward.

All these factors apparently put more downward drag on Stanford than the upward drag it got from the win.

Remember the earlier discussion about Lamar, which lost every game this year, by a combined score of 96-2? And which Oregon State and Loyola Marymount played? This gives you a sense of how playing that kind of team can be a disaster. I haven't run the numbers with the end of season data, but it will be interesting to see how Loyola Marymount's having played Lamar affected its RPI ranking. I'll bet it cost them at least a few positions and perhaps more. Once the total season is over, I may run the numbers without that game and suggest to the Loyola Marymount coaching staff that they not schedule a team like that again in their tournament.

What a complicated system!