Post season predictions

So that was quick. Like promised, we were removed from the latest braketology on ESPN following the loss in Spokane. This had nothing to do with how we competed and everything to do with our RPI. We have fallen behind Saint Mary's in the RPI rankings and thus do not get the AQ bid from the projection. So this brings me to a question I've thought about for a bit now. What is everyone expecting in terms of postseason? Do you think that we have an outside chance at the big dance or are we shooting for a third appearance in the CIT? Personally, I'd be disappointed with another one-and-done performance in the CIT. I would love it if we made it to the NIT but that usually reserved for Power 6/Conference Champs who don't make the tourney. Anyway, Thoughts?

I think the CIT is our likely destination, unless we manage 10 or 11 conference wins. That would give us an outside shot at the NIT. I'll be satisfied with the CIT as long as we finally win a game. Preferably more than one, but hey, baby steps.

Actually, I think we'll have more than an outside shot at the NIT if we win something like 22-23 games and have an RPI in the 50s-60s.

Remember, last year our final RPI was in the 80s:

http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2010MBBrpi1.html

This year, according to this RPI forecaseter, our most likely end-of-year RPI will be 61, and it's 75% likelier to be lower than 65 (in the good way) as opposed to above:

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Portland.html

So, I like our chances for the NIT a lot better this year. Assuming we don't win the WCC tournament, we would be one of the highest RPI teams out there.

I do not expect the big dance; that would require lightning in a bottle at the WCC tournament. But I would like to see enough progress and good attendance to get a home game in one of the post-season tourneys.

With such a premature post, why not shoot high first? Shoot for the tourney first since we're still in the top 64 in RPI. Then, if we can't get in shoot for the NIT. We absolutely can get 10 conference wins; I firmly believe that...

Yeah, I know its a little early to be posting this especially since we've only played one conference game and things happen in college basketball sometimes that you can't predict but its still fun to talk about. To be honest, I was not expecting to have this conversation this year but I'm stoked that we are having this discussion.

A couple notes, first off, most of the time your RPI should be in the top 32 to get an at large bid as there are 32 automatic qualifiers. I know that number depends on upsets and stuff like that but a good rule of thumb is top 32 so we have a little work left.
Also, does anyone know how a school gets to host one of those post-season games. If I remember it ends up costing money but I'm not positive. I think that is why we didn't host in the past.

The top 32 is only necessary if all the automatic qualifiers are below that, which they never are. Duke will win the ACC and be in the top 32. Of course, RPI isn't the only, or even the most important, criteria.

Typically something in the low 40's gets you in if you are BCS, a bit below that for the hoi polloi like us. This year will be slightly easier since the field is 68.

2 games with San Diego is going to be the killing blow to our RPI and NCAA at large bid hopes I think.

If we don't win the WCC tournament and get the autobid, then I'm optimistic that if we get 10 conference wins, and hopefully 11 we have a good chance at the NIT this year.

WCC CHAMPIONSHIP & bid, or first round home game NIT or bust!!!

Stonehouse wrote:Actually, I think we'll have more than an outside shot at the NIT if we win something like 22-23 games and have an RPI in the 50s-60s.

Remember, last year our final RPI was in the 80s:

http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2010MBBrpi1.html

This year, according to this RPI forecaseter, our most likely end-of-year RPI will be 61, and it's 75% likelier to be lower than 65 (in the good way) as opposed to above:

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Portland.html

So, I like our chances for the NIT a lot better this year. Assuming we don't win the WCC tournament, we would be one of the highest RPI teams out there.

So, let's just say that the RPI forecaster is right, and our end of the season RPI is around 63.1 and we finish 21-9 and 9-5 in the WCC. If that's the case, it all comes down to the WCC tourney.

A second possibility is finishing with 22-23 wins and splitting with Gonzaga and/or SMC or both. I don't think that it's out of the question at all with the consistency that we've shown on the road this season. At some point, I expect the Mitrovic/Stohl combo to go off against better competition. In any case, there are two ways that we could make things interesting: 1) split with GU and SMC or 2) win the WCC tourney. Even if we don't, but, our RPI is around 63, our shot at the NIT is good and we've shown a good amount of improvement. I'm all for setting high goals though...shoot for the tourney first.