Win-Loss Predictions for 2010-11 Season?

by Woodless! Wed Nov 03, 2010 1:37 pm

9 days or so from the opening tip...how do you think the Pilots will fare?

Non-Conference schedule is going to be real tough.

If they can hang tough, stay away from the injury bugs, and learn a few things along the way I think they have a chance to finish in the top half of the conference.

17-13...I'm feeling optimistic

by MesaPilot1 Wed Nov 03, 2010 2:38 pm

Woodless! wrote:9 days or so from the opening tip...how do you think the Pilots will fare?

Non-Conference schedule is going to be real tough.

If they can hang tough, stay away from the injury bugs, and learn a few things along the way I think they have a chance to finish in the top half of the conference.

17-13...I'm feeling optimistic

I MUST AGREE, It would be great to see them push 20's...the occ schedule is brutal though, I hope it doesn't lead to some "let down" games like the last two years...we shall see...finally Revs first fully scouted class are seniors....with Nem and big Jasonn getting much needed experience and continued improvement .Hopefully our MR "Got it" can throw down a few 30 pt games to keep the opponents off Luke, Kramer, and Jasonn inside so they have room to operate Very Happy

Mesapilot1

by **DaTruRochin** Wed Nov 03, 2010 5:25 pm

I would be really stoked if we eeked out 17-18 wins this year...

I mean I love the hard working veteran bigs, and we keep hearing how Luke is way more talented than he shows in games (And he shows pretty damn well I might add), but the key to this season is going to be replacing the ball handlers, and getting Jared open for looks. I don't think it can be overstated just how well TJ took care of the ball and set up the offense (Not to mention Nik as well when healthy). You can have all the depth in the world at the post, and the greatest shooters alive (And, really we do, Jared is arguably the best shooter in the country, so crazy to think about...), but without someone to distribute to the players they may as well just be giant sacks of flour sitting on the court...

If one of the newcomers can step up, or heck even Waterford, into the true PG role this team could do very well, but if not this is going to be a very rough season, something the seniors definitely don't deserve to go out with.

by Pilot60 Wed Nov 03, 2010 5:32 pm

point guard play will have to emerge quickly

by MesaPilot1 Thu Nov 04, 2010 3:03 am

I believe the key to the season will hinge on three young men: Waterford, or one of the two others...I'm hearing Pilot fans will be pleasantly surprised with the vast improvement in Erics game....I just choose to remember his growth before the Major INJURY suffered last year...and how he was pushing ETHAN & ITO further down the depth chart even though Rev tried to keep Ito's minutes more then Erics due to some sence of senior loyalty or sentimental reason...first partial recruiting class loyalty...one thing we know about Rev is he is as loyal to his players/asst. Coaches/mgrs
(and we hope UP at next contract extension time...pls Johnny Dawkins keep winning at Stanford).

Waterford is the starter, it's his job to lose, and hopefully he won't shoot woefully or take A 10 count to get it to mid court like the pt guard Rev had to bench in favor of then little known AZ PRODUCT TJ
CAMPBELL, umm, umm good...

I believe Rev might just sneak by this year with Stohl helping bring the ball up the court(ala Nik the last two years) and Riley Tanner (very undervalued) in the rotation to keep the opponents guessing...that's 4 ball handlers to attempt to get the ball into the "sacks of flours", lol... Embarassed

...mesapilot1 :face: silent

by onetouchfutbol Sat Nov 06, 2010 5:24 pm

I think that shooting for 17 wins and 3rd place after GU and LMU would be a lofty, but, attainable goal...

by shallwemaui10 Sun Nov 07, 2010 4:25 pm

truthfully, from what i saw today, i would put the over-under at 12. With that said, we could do better, but Douglas should play 30 minutes a game and Riley should play at least 1/2 the game. Interestingly, Nicholas didn't play at all today (knee?) (possible redshirt?). Anyone with a scoop here? Also, Thielke didn't play. I think we should RS him. I sure hope we are recruiting some 6-10s for next year. Without Sikma's rebounding today, it would have been a different outcome.

by PurplePrideTrumpet Sun Nov 07, 2010 6:54 pm

I liked Douglas and Barker today. The next priority will have to be big men since we're losing Luke, Kramer, and Jasonn.

by Guest Sun Nov 07, 2010 9:59 pm

That's what I was thinking today. Big men are a major priority for recruiting.

by shallwemaui10 Sat Nov 13, 2010 2:31 pm

Off of yesterday's game, I am willing to up my over under to 16.5 wins. Douglas, Riley and Barker can play. Also, Nicholas is going to be our most physical player since Braynard graduated. I think it is just a matter of time until Douglas is starting and playing 30 minutes, and Riley/Barker will be the 6th-7th man. Yesterday we saw Barker doing things that we have been hoping Hannibal (or even Knutsen) would learn to do. He has good hands, and that is a good start for a big.

by ShipstadPilot11 Fri Dec 31, 2010 6:52 pm

Anyone care to revise their predictions?

by Guest Fri Dec 31, 2010 7:29 pm

DaTruRochin wrote:I would be really stoked if we eeked out 17-18 wins this year...

At this point, I would not be so stoked with 17-18. Rolling Eyes

by dholcombe Fri Dec 31, 2010 9:36 pm

We have won all the games we are supposed to win so far. Honestly, I was expecting us to drop one or two easy ones before the season started. I'm impressed with the focus the team has been able to keep from game to game. I would have said 18-19 preseason. Now I'm hoping for 25, but thinking 23 is more realistic.

by **DaTruRochin** Sat Jan 01, 2011 10:29 am

up7587 wrote:
DaTruRochin wrote:I would be really stoked if we eeked out 17-18 wins this year...
At this point, I would not be so stoked with 17-18.

Best tasting crow I've had in a LONG time!

I think really it all comes down to everyone stepped up. (Or in Nem's case, exploded!) Our PGs have stepped in and given more than anyone could have reasonably expected, including some HUGE games by TD. Rogers is the best lock down defender we've had since Donald Wilson. And man Kramer is back with an absolute vengeance this year, best I've seen him play since his freshman year. Luke has really settled into that team leader role, and produced some big time games. And Jared, honestly it doesn't even matter if he's slumped a bit lately, teams are flat out scared of him, his presence alone garners so much attention it softens the defense for everyone else.

I'm thinking the 22-23 range now as far as wins go is pretty damn realistic. The conference seems way more top heavy SMC will continue to be a tough cookie, the Zags seem to be their own worst enemy, but other than that nobody else seems to be on par. LMU has been a flat out disappointment, and it seems 4-8 are an absolute toss up. Well not 8, USD is atrocious...

by PurplePrideTrumpet Sat Jan 01, 2011 2:45 pm

The way it looks to me now you have Gonzaga and SMC at the top, then Portland a definite step below, then I think another big drop to the rest of the WCC. LMU/USF/SCU are all about the same and Pepperdine is almost down there with USD.

by onetouchfutbol Sun Jan 02, 2011 9:10 pm

PurplePrideTrumpet wrote:The way it looks to me now you have Gonzaga and SMC at the top, then Portland a definite step below, then I think another big drop to the rest of the WCC. LMU/USF/SCU are all about the same and Pepperdine is almost down there with USD.

I'm not so sure we're "a definite step below" anymore. The best teams that Gonzaga has beat (Xavier and Oklahoma State ) are currently below us on Real Time RPI. I think we've been remarkably consistent on the road so far this season, and we've beat the teams we were supposed to beat. I think that our team is still a little bit of a mystery because we've defeated a series of teams that have made some noise in the NCAA tourney but have faded (Utah, Nevada, Florida Atlantic, Wisconsin-Milwaulkie). UCSB is really our best quality win so far. In my opinion, we're good enough to split with either Gonzaga or SMC if the team continues to improve. Stohl and Mitrovich need to keep getting their shots off against the better perimeter defenses and Sikma needs to keep rebounding to make it happen...

by Geezaldinho Mon Jan 03, 2011 7:06 am

onetouchfutbol wrote:
PurplePrideTrumpet wrote:The way it looks to me now you have Gonzaga and SMC at the top, then Portland a definite step below, then I think another big drop to the rest of the WCC. LMU/USF/SCU are all about the same and Pepperdine is almost down there with USD.

I'm not so sure we're "a definite step below" anymore. The best teams that Gonzaga has beat (Xavier and Oklahoma State ) are currently below us on Real Time RPI. I think we've been remarkably consistent on the road so far this season, and we've beat the teams we were supposed to beat. I think that our team is still a little bit of a mystery because we've defeated a series of teams that have made some noise in the NCAA tourney but have faded (Utah, Nevada, Florida Atlantic, Wisconsin-Milwaulkie). UCSB is really our best quality win so far. In my opinion, we're good enough to split with either Gonzaga or SMC if the team continues to improve. Stohl and Mitrovich need to keep getting their shots off against the better perimeter defenses and Sikma needs to keep rebounding to make it happen...

Andy Katz has elevated us to " pest " category:

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/20507/observations-from-the-week-that-was-7

That should give us better than Pomeroy's 13% chance over the doggies, should't it?

by DTLegend Mon Jan 03, 2011 8:17 am

Wasn't sure if this deserved its own topic or not but just found this on ESPN from Joe Lunardi. I'm posting this now and braketology has yet to be updated so later today that should be up.

• Which brings us to our favorite parlor game, January RPI outliers. On the "plus" end, consider: St. John's (No. 6), Old Dominion (No. 22), Cleveland State (No. 29), Rhode Island (No. 32), Portland (No. 34), Princeton (No. 37), James Madison (No. 54), Nicholls State (No. 60). Keep in mind that a year ago at this time, William & Mary was No. 2.

• On the "minus" end, you may want to take note of: Duke (No. 16), Villanova (No. 24), Washington (No. 27), Wisconsin (No. 31), Minnesota (No. 38), Missouri (No. 44), Michigan State (No. 48), Gonzaga (No. 55), Memphis (No. 64), Washington State (No. 66), Florida State (No. 83), Marquette (No. 117), Maryland (No. 123), Clemson (No. 133). Most if not all of this numerical jumble will sort itself out as conference play unfolds.

• We have two January "bid thieves" in this bracket. Both Drexel and Portland have ridden either early conference victories or an RPI tiebreaker into AQ positions in the Colonial and West Coast Conference, respectively. Cleveland State, at 4-0 in the Horizon League, is in a similar AQ position, but not yet a bid thief as the Vikings are also very much in range of at-large consideration. Drexel is on the outside edge of that group.

• Many ask why we place such bid thieves in a bracket in which the CAA (Old Dominion) and WCC (Gonzaga, Saint Mary's) are already represented. The answer is to best replicate the dynamics of March, when we'll almost certainly see one or more "upset" winners of mid-major conference tournaments. In this projection, Oklahoma State and Northwestern are bumped out of the field by Drexel and Portland.

what I take from it is that we currently have a nice RPI and we may have a chance to upset some teams during WCC in Vegas to make it in. We would have to do some work, by that I mean beat Saint Mary's and/or Gonzaga at least once while beating pretty much any other team to get an at-large to the Big Dance. Just to reiterate the point: who would have thought we'd be in this position heading into conference play. A strong sign for a quality program is one that can compete despite being in a "rebuilding" year. It is what makes the difference between a Gonzaga and George Mason.

by DTLegend Mon Jan 03, 2011 8:35 am

Quick update, in the latest braketology on ESPN we are a 13 seed going against next-year WCC foe BYU.

In the odds/rundown section, they have this to say about the upcoming game against Gonzaga

Saturday: Portland @ Gonzaga (8:30 p.m.)
Portland has to pull the upset to remain in the bracket next time.

by onetouchfutbol Mon Jan 03, 2011 10:50 am

We have two January "bid thieves" in this bracket. Both Drexel and Portland have ridden either early conference victories or an RPI tiebreaker into AQ positions in the Colonial and West Coast Conference, respectively. Cleveland State, at 4-0 in the Horizon League, is in a similar AQ position, but not yet a bid thief as the Vikings are also very much in range of at-large consideration. Drexel is on the outside edge of that group.
From the ESPN post above.

If we have to be a "bid thief" to get into the tourney, I'll gladly take it. But, I guess this is why RPI is somewhat meaningless in January. We can't pretend our schedule is as difficult as Gonzaga's has been, but, we can beat them head to head to show them we are legit.

Win-Loss Predictions for 2010-11 Season?

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