Surprises in 2011 tourney bids

Amazing number of surprises when you look at nc-soccer site and see how the adjusted RPI rankings are coming in.

We could have some seeds coming out of nowwhere with: Memphis 7, Pepperdine 8, UW-M 11, and Kentucky 12.

New names who might make the tourney this year are: Baylor 24, NC St 28, Rice 32, and La Salle undefeated at 34.

UP is not the only one off this year. OH St who made college cup is on the bubble at 38. Last years champ ND is at 33. PAC 12 may only have 3 teams make the tourney after something like 8 last year as WSU, UW, and OSU all on the bubble. Even UNC perennial #1 seed is currently #10 with 4 ACC teams ahead of them.

Hope some of these new teams get a chance to host for a change and that we see some new names in the later rounds.

And, what is UP ranked?

RipCityPilot wrote:And, what is UP ranked?

#50. The Pilots are helped by their strength of schedule, which is #11 nationally. For once, their strength of schedule also will be helped by the West Coast Conference, which will contribute more to their strength of schedule than the Pac 12 teams and Big East teams will contribute to their fellow conference members' strengths of schedule.

It's fun now to look at who might make the bracket, might get seeded, and so on, but there's a fairly wide range of who might make it based on their current RPIs. Here are my guidelines for this exact point in the season based on years 2007 through 2010. These guidelines represent who has reasonable potential to end up in the particular pool:

Pool of possible #1 seeds (of which there will be four): ARPI rank of #9 or better

Pool of possible seeds (of which there will be sixteen): ARPI rank of #37 or better

Pool of teams that might not make the bracket: ARPI rank of #22 or poorer

Pool of teams that might make the bracket as at large selections (of which there will be 34): ARPI rank of #86 or better

There can be exceptions to any of these guidelines, but they are not what one could reasonably anticipate from a pure numbers perspective. Knowing the teams, one might say some teams are more likely to be exceptions to the guidelines than others. Oklahoma State was an exception in 2009, if I recall correctly, and Penn State was an exception last year. These are traditionally good teams that are struggling early but that mount strong runs in good conferences at the end of the season.

Looking at nc-soccer.com these are how tourney bids are looking based on current RPI. Yes, there might be some bids on teams up to #88 but unlikely and we can never figure out what the committee will do anyway so bound to be surprise or two every year.

Big number of the 30 conferences will most likely have only 1 bid. Those are:

Am E: BU has RPI of 37. Hartford undefeated but rpi 91.
Atl Sun: FL GC rpi 78, and E tenn St, and Jacksonville have strong conf rec.
Big Sky: N. Col rpi 225, others might be PSU or Webber St
Big S.: Radford rpi 151, othes might be Campbell or Withrop
Big W: Expect either LB St 44, or UCI 45 to make it.
Colonial: Likely only W&M at 46, others JMU or NE
Horizon: Milwaukie at 10 most likely
Ivy: Harvard 75, others Yale, Penn.
Metro Atl: Marist 124, Niagra, Canisius
Mid Am:CMU 43, others Toledo, Ball St.
MVC: Mizz St 69, others Ill St, Creighton
Mt W: SD st 82, others NM
NE: Monmouth 109, others St Fr St, LIU
OVC: SEMO 74, others Tenn Martin
Patriot: Army 90, others Lafayett, Colgate
Southern: UNC-GR 67, others Samford
Southland:SFA 55, others Lamar
SWAC: Ark-PB 254, others Jack St MVSC
Summit: ND st 130 others SD st
Sunbelt: Denver 40, others N. Tex.
WAC: Ut St 62, others Fr St.

I'll cover the conf with multiple berths in a future post.

ACC: Likely 9 berths with all but Clemson in as everyone else rpi 32 or better
Big 12: Ok St, A&M, Baylor, Kansas
Big E: MQ, WV, GT and ND if they can finish 500.
Big Ten: PSU, Ill, OH St.
Conf USA: Memphis, UCF, Rice
Pac 12 UCLA, Stan, Cal, WSU
SEC: FL Kentucky, Aug, Tenn, LSU, S. Car, Geo, maybe Vandy if 500.
WCC: Pep and SCU.

UP has no chance unless they finish 500. UW is currenly 500 and maybe be out too with 62 RPI. OSU is 10-4 but RPI is 59 so they are long shot unless that improves.

If you look at the top 25 adj rpi on nc-soccer they are in current RPI order:

WF, Stan, UCLA, Duke, FL, UNC, Vir, Memphis, Pep, Ok St, Mil, PSU, FSU, MIA, Kentucky, Baylor, BC, MQ, A&M, UCF, LaSalle, Aub,, SCU, Ten and Cal.

Pretty amazing the number of these teams where the seeds for this year's tourney will likely come from and they didn't even make the tourney last year like: Pep, Miami, Kentucky, Baylor, and LaSalle, and Tenn.

For the conf with multiple bids after last week's games:

ACC: no change all but Clemson looking to get in.
Big 12: Same 4,
Big E: Lou has a chance now
Big Ten: Drop OH st
Conf USA: Same 3
Pac 12: Same 4
SEC: Vandy still fighting the 500 battle
WCC: Add BYU. UP still in the 50's but getting to 500 first order

Changes after last weeks games:
ACC (same 9 in, Possible 6 seeds from ACC)
ATl 10: Both LaSalle and Dayton looking to be in.
Big 12: No change
Big E: Lou hopes still alive
Big 10: still 2 only: PSU & ILL
Conf USA: Only Memphis and UCF (rice out)
PAC 12: Add OSU
SEC: Vandy out , but 7 still likely
WCC: Pep and SCU in, maybe SD and/or BYU.

So... Should I rule out a postseason for us this year?

RipCityPilot wrote:So... Should I rule out a postseason for us this year?

Based on my guidelines for this point in the season, and based on the RPI rankings for games through Sunday, October 23, here is what we reasonably can be anticipating for the NCAA Tournament:

#1 seeds (four of them): Will come from the teams currently ranked #7 or better

All seeds (sixteen of them): Will come from the teams ranked #30 or better

Teams (that are not conference champions) at risk of not making the tournament: Teams ranked #36 or poorer

Teams (that are not conference champions) with a reasonable chance of making the tournament: Teams ranked #68 or better

Right now, the Pilots are at #55 in the unofficial RPI rankings. So, to answer your question, don't count the Pilots out. Their first order of business is to end the season with their record at 0.500 or better, since that is a prerequisite to getting an at large selection.

Unofficial RPI as in what it would be if it were updated daily? That makes me feel better about everything then.

RipCityPilot wrote:Unofficial RPI as in what it would be if it were updated daily? That makes me feel better about everything then.

"Unofficial" as in what nc-soccer publishes and what I publish. nc-soccer's ratings are "real time" and mine are weekly. The NCAA's "official" RPI reports typically come out on Wednesday morning each week. They also typically cover games through the preceding Sunday, but occasionally include some games played after Sunday -- but they don't tell exactly where the cutoff is, although with some work it's possible to figure out the cutoff.

In any event, the Pilots are in the running for a tournament berth.

RCP,

check out nc-soccer for yourself. It is updated after each days games. You can sort by rpi, adjusted rpi, record, etc. RPI is main determiner of seeds and bids other than automatic bids.

http://www.nc-soccer.com/wsoccer/2011/index_arpi

Make your own guess on UP's chances.

Looking at the teams in seeding postion, FL and FSU have 5 and 6 losses respectively. Wopnder if either might not get seed. FSU lost to a number of top teams. FL had a couple of weaker team losses. They might be more vulnerable.

I wouldn't exactly say that RPI is the main determiner of either at large selections or seeds. What I'd say is that it is the main determiner of the teams that get consideration for seeds (#1 seeds, any seeds) and at large selections. Once teams become subject to consideration, however, I think the RPI recedes in importance. At that point, the other criteria come into consideration.

Using at large selections as an example, I believe what the Women's Soccer Committee does is something like this:

First, identify the top 34 teams in the RPI rankings. If none of them were an automatic qualifier, then the #34 team would be the last one "in" if the Committee relied on RPI only.

Second, delete from those teams any of them that have won their conference championships and thus are automatic qualifiers. However many automatic qualifiers there are in this group, add that number to 34. For example, if there are 10 automatic qualifiers in the top 34 teams, this takes you up to #44. Then, look to see if, by going to #44, you have added more automatic qualifiers. If you've added more, then add that number to 44. Keep doing this until you don't have any more automatic qualifiers in the added group.

Let's say this takes you up to #48. Then team #48 is at the center of the bubble. Go 7 teams with "better" rankings (plus one more for each of these "better" teams that is an automatic qualifier) and these teams also are bubble teams. Go 7 teams with "poorer" rankings (plus one more for each of these "poorer" teams that is an automatic qualifier) and these teams also are bubble teams. This gives a total of 15 bubble teams.

Now, apply the criteria to evaluate these teams: RPI rankings and Non-Conference RPI rankings (which includes conference standings and conference tournament results when comparing teams from the same conference), head-to-head results among these teams, and results of these teams against common opponents, to arrange the teams in order.

In my experience, applying those criteria is not particularly determinative. So then, apply the secondary criteria: Results against teams already selected for the Tournament (which I think is aimed towards considering good wins and ties) and results over the last eight games (which I think is aimed towards considering poor results).

Then, based on all those considerations, make a decision.

In my analysis, what really becomes important, unless the decision otherwise is clear, is results against teams already selected for the Tournament. Wins and ties against highly ranked teams really matter. Essentially, they show that a team is able to compete with the very good teams.

To illustrate, if my recollection is correct, Denver last year had an RPI which, on its own, would have put it in the tournament. However, they did not have any good wins against highly ranked teams and they had an end of season loss and tie to teams that weren't ranked very highly. There weren't any head-to-head results or good comparatives through results against common opponents. They lost out to Auburn, which had some wins against teams in the 10 to 20 ranking area but a poorer RPI ranking.

Looking at the weaker conferences that are likely to have only one auto bid and no at large there is the conference tab on nc-soccer. Those with the best conf record which is a good indicator of who will win their conf tourney (all conf except IVY, PAC12, and WCC have conf tourney I believe).

American East: BU undefeated. Harford has one loss. BU might make tourney even if they lose conf tourney as they have ARPI of 36.

Atlantic 10: Lasalle is undefeated. Richmond and Mass have 1 loss. Dayton 2 losses in conf. Both LaSalle and Dayton might make the tourney if they lose conf tourney with RPI of 28 and 31 respectively.

ATL Sun: Jacksonville, FL GC, and E Tenn St all have 1 loss. The one who has best RPI is FL GC at 71. Thus, likely only single team out of this conf.

Big Sky: N. Col and our own PSU have only 1 loss. N. Col RPI is 231 and so only 1 berth from this conf.

Big South: Radford, Campbell, High Point have 1 loss. Withrop 2. Best RPI is Radford at 149 so only one berth from B.S.

Big West: UC-I and UC Davis have one loss. CS-N and LB ST both have 2. CS-I has RPI of 24 so chance of more than one berth from B.W.

Colonial: W&M has 1 loss. VCU 2. W&M rpi is 38 so there is chance of more than one berth.

Horizon: UW-M is undefeated. Detroit has 2 losses. UW-M has rpi of 23 so chance of more than one bid.

IVY: Harvard is undefeated. Penn 1 loss. Harvard rpi is 49 but no conf tourney so if they are win conf reg season only one berth for Ivy League.

Metro Atl: Toledo and CMU have 1 loss. CMU rpi is 47 so chance of more than one berth.

Mid Am: Mizz St and creighton undefeated. Ill St 1 loss. Mizz st rpi is 75 so only one berth here.

Mt West: NM undefeated. UNLV and SD St 1 loss. NM rpi is 90 so only 1 bid in Mt W.

NE: St Francis undefeated. LIU and Monmouth 2 losses. ST Fr rpi is 115 so only one bid here.

OVC: SEMO 1 loss, E. Kentucky 2. SEMO rpi is 91 so only on bid.

Patriot: Colgate undefeated. Army 1 loss. Colgate rpi is 81 so only 1 bid.

Southern: Samford undefeated. UNC-GR and College of Chas 3 losses. Samford rpi 73 so only 1 bid.

Southland: SFA undefeated. Texas St 1 loss. SFA rpi 46 so outside chance of more than one berth.

SWAC: ARK PB and Jacksonville undefeated. RPI for APB 269....

Summit: ND St and SD st undefeated. ND st rpi 133...

Sunbelt: Denver, N. Texas, and FIU all have one loss. Denver rpi is 45 (repeat of last year when they lost conf tourney and did not get bid?)

WAC: Dogfight with Utah St, Fr. St, HI, and SJ St all with one loss. Utah st rpi is 65 so likely only one bid from WAC.

With tonights games including several top teams from ACC here is how RPI is shaping up for conf with multiple berths: ACC teams continue to beat up on each other. Tongiht it was FSU over VT, VIR over MI, Duke over NC St, MD over UNC, and BC over WF.

based on nc-soccer site:

ATL 10: Both LaSalle and Dayton could come out of this conf with RPI of 29 and 30.

ACC: Could have 4 #1 seeds coming out of ACC. Duke is #1 on rpi with Vir and WF at 3 & 4. UNC 9, FSU 12, and BC 13 could get seeds. MD MI VT and NC st like to get berth with 22, 24, 26 and 37 rpi.

BIG 12: OK St 7, Baylor 14, and A&M 16 could get seeds and Kansas should get in with RPI of 32.

BIG E: MQ 15 could get seed and WV should be in at 27, but ND 39, Lou 41, and GT 42 on bubble.

Big Ten: Only PSU 11 and ILL 31 likely to make tourney.

Conf USA: Memphis s.b. seed at 6, and UCF 21 will get in.

PAC 12: Stanford s.b. #1 seed with 2 rpi. UCLA is 5. Cal 36, OSU 38, and maybe WSU 44 get in.

SEC loaded with bids this year but thinking they might be ones that get de seeded with a lot of losses. FL is 8, Kentucky 18, Aub 20, LSU 25, Tenn 28, S Car, and Geo 34 should all make tourney.

WCC: Thinking Pep or SCU gets seed at 10 and 17 depending on outcome of their game this weekend. SD at 43 on bubble. UP needs to get to 500 before they worry about rpi. They and BYU longshots.

We are now closer to that center bubble position. Next two games will be a big factor.

ID Unadjusted Adjusted
49 0.5753 0.5831