WCC Update

Time to look at the first four weeks of the 2011-12 season: (ratings assigned by Ken Pomeroy /kenpom.com)

#23 Gonzaga (4-0) Only notable win was against #116 WSU, but #55 Notre Dame; #46 Illinois; #14 Michigan St; #68 Oral Roberts; and #56 Arizona are coming up

#26 BYU (4-2) Lost to #91 Utah St and #2 Wisconsin; beat #132 Nevada. Plays #63 Oregon next Saturday and #28 Baylor and #75 UCSB next month

#34 St. Mary’s (3-1) Beat #57 Northern Iowa and two D-2 schools, but lost at #129 Denver

#133 Santa Clara (4-2) Great wins over #45 New Mexico and #48 Villanova; lost to #75 UCSB. The only remaining tough game they have before WCC play is #116 WSU who just lost three straight including to #243 Cal Riverside

#153 UP (2-4) All D-1 preseason games are against teams currently rated higher (including Saturday against #16 St Louis) except an away game against #240 Utah. Loss to #1 Kentucky boosted UP's ratings by 11 spots. Our only remaining home games before WCC play after Lewis & Clark are #102 Ohio and #119 Montana

#160 USF (5-3) No notable wins; losses were to #108 North Dakota St; #89 Murray St; #73 New Mexico St

#165 LMU (3-2) Good opening win over #120 UCLA, but they lost to #90 Middle Tennessee and #29 Harvard. They play #16 St. Louis Tuesday and #18 FSU in December

#234 Pepperdine (3-2) Good win over #111 ASU, but only upcoming quality games are against #120 UCLA and #116 WSU

#257- USD – (4-2) Lost to #119 Montana and #106 Tulane; no quality wins, but games against #59 San Diego St; #75 UCSB; and #36 Stanford coming up before WCC play

As a conference the WCC is rated #10 out of 33 conferences:
1. Big Ten
2. Big 12
3. Big East
4. Southeastern
5. ACC
6. Pac 12
7. Atlantic 10
8. Missouri Valley
9. Mountain West
10. WCC

We are the only WCC team without a winning record, but it has been mentioned that the quality/toughness of our schedule will make us a bit of surprise come league play; much like USF last year.

Statistical Rankings:

2 point %: 275th/345 @ 43.3%
3 point %: 211th/345 @ 31.5%
FT%: 52nd/345 @ 74%

Let’s see your comments! (sorry, I didn't mean for this to be so long)

I think Oregon is a little overrated because the only team of significance that they have played is Vanderbilt. My only criticism there.

I didn't realize that Oral Roberts was a legitimate college... my bad.

Lastly, I look forward to our conference season because we will be much better prepared than most of the other schools due to our tough nonconference schedule. But, I am happy to see us ranked higher than most of the WCC schools (considering our record) because I think we have a lot to play through this season and we aren't buckling under any pressure so far (perhaps minus the UCSB game).

For comparison, here is Sagarin's rating of the WCC

37 Saint Mary's
62 Gonzaga
82 BYU
120 Santa Clara
144 Pepperdine
153 Loyola Marymount
158 San Francisco
166 Portland
264 San Diego


I hope Ken Pomeroy has a more accurate system. I think it's far to early to place much weight in the Rankings. What do you learn about a 24 point loss to Kentucky? Certainly not that UP is 11 places better than you previously thought. Once everyone has at least 10 games, then the computer rankings might be more accurate.

Either way, it looks like there are 5 teams that will be battling for the 4th spot.

I used to follow Sagarin's ratings, but found Pomeroy gave a more accurate and complete picture. (I consulted Sagarin's numbers before writing my piece last night).

Of course you'll now have to spend $19.95 to get the "complete" picture.

I know Rev looks at Pomeroy to get the "big picture," and comments about it quite often. In his Tweet yesterday he mentioned how Pomeroy had rated UP's schedule the 10th toughest to this point; I don't see it getting much easier.

Pomeroy or Sagarin, I don't see how they can rate St. Mary's so high based upon their record, it has to be on passed performance and potential. They have not played a quality schedule yet, and I watched them lose to Denver without a lot of fight.

Agree about the battle for 4th; I think it wil be fun!
If we end up 8th, you're going to have to spend some $$$$ on a new plane ticket.

DoubleDipper wrote:Pomeroy or Sagarin, I don't see how they can rate St. Mary's so high based upon their record, it has to be on passed performance and potential. They have not played a quality schedule yet, and I watched them lose to Denver without a lot of fight.

I'm not sure about Pomeroy, but Sagarin's ratings have a beginning value for each team. Once there are enough games played, he no longer uses the beginning value. St. Mary's has only played 2 D1 games so far. Give it another couple weeks and we'll have a more accurate picture.

blacksheep wrote:
I think it's far to early to place much weight in the Rankings. What do you learn about a 24 point loss to Kentucky? Certainly not that UP is 11 places better than you previously thought.

Las Vegas had UK by 28 and various prognosticators had the Cats by 33 to 36 points; I think that is why we moved up 11 spots after only a 24 point loss.

Rev’s correct in saying in his recent Tweet; (the) challenge in having 8th toughest schedule, according to kenpom.co, is staying focused on process of improvement.

Note: the only team ranked above UP that has played a tougher schedule so far (6th) is #33 Memphis (2-2).

DoubleDipper wrote:
Pomeroy or Sagarin, I don't see how they can rate St. Mary's so high based upon their record, it has to be on passed performance and potential. They have not played a quality schedule yet, and I watched them lose to Denver without a lot of fight.

OK, maybe I was wrong, St. Mary's poured in 56 points in the second half tonight and beat down #123 Weber State 87-70.

A look at last week in the WCC *

#21 BYU (6-2) Easy win over #299 Northern Arizona in Prescott, and 14 point win over #80 Oregon in Salt Lake City

#24 Gonzaga (5-1) Blew out #68 Notre Dame at home (sorry Woodless) by 20; lost at #39 Illinois by 7

#33 St. Mary’s (5-1) Blew out #146 Weber State by 17 at home, and squeaked by #135 Cal Poly on the road by 5.

#134 Santa Clara (5-2) Beat #311 Cal State Northridge at home by 13

#152 USF (7-3) Beat #161 Montana in Missoula by 3, and D-3 Pacific Union at home by 42!

#163 UP (3-5) As you know, we beat Lewis & Clark at home and lost to St. Louis on the road. The Pilots dropped 10 spots in the ratings and boast the 4th toughest schedule out of all 345 D-1 schools. There is no school rated above us with a tougher schedule. (#7 Duke has the 5th toughest schedule). Our only remaining home games before WCC play are #91 Ohio and #161 Montana. Road games are at #90 Boise State; #272 Utah; and #130 Nevada. We open up WCC play against #24 Gonzaga in Spokane on 12/28

#186 LMU (5-4) The schizoid Lions had a great win over #25 St. Louis in LA, but turned around and lost to #182 Columbia of the Ivy League and #266 North Texas in the Lions own tournament at home. In between those losses they beat D-3 La Sierra. Crazy!

#243 Pepperdine (4-3) Lost to #113 UCLA down the road 62-39, but took care of #221 Hawaii at home by 6

#285- USD (4-3) Bill Grier’s boys lost away at #263 Cal Irvine by 20

*(Ratings assigned by Ken Pomeroy /kenpom.com)

Thanks for the update, DoubleDipper. I don't have find myself keeping track of all WCC games so it's nice to have it diluted into digestible chunks!

Good to see the whole conference doing well. Looks like eight out of nine have winning records .

VillaGorilla wrote:Good to see the whole conference doing well. Looks like eight out of nine have winning records .

This is true. But there's a reason why we're ahead of three of our brethren in KenPom's rankings and within striking distance of two other teams.

DoubleDipper wrote:The Pilots dropped 10 spots in the ratings and boast the 4th toughest schedule out of all 345 D-1 schools. There is no school rated above us with a tougher schedule.

I'm much happier with 3-5 this year, given our youth and tough schedule, than I would have been last year. As long as we're growing and learning (and getting used to playing tough games on the road), losses like ours aren't so tough to swallow with such an inexperienced team.

A look at the last 9 days in the WCC *

#16 BYU (8-2) Moved up 5 spots by beating #150 Weber St. at home and our next road opponent, #312 Utah 61-42 on the road in a game that was close for the first 25 minutes (sound familiar).

#32 Gonzaga (5-2) Dropped only 5 spots after losing twice; #39 Illinois away, and at home against #12 Michigan St.

#35 St. Mary’s (6-1) Beat #323 Jackson State in Moraga.

#160 USF (8-3) The Dons won their only game over #278 Pacific at home by 10 but dropped eight positions in the ratings.

#171 Santa Clara (6-3) Whoa, Santa Clara dropped 38 positions based upon their 38 point loss to #68 WSU in Pullman, and a win at home against D-3 Pacifica College.

#191 UP (3-7) The Pilots lost twice, to Boise St and Ohio U., and dropped 28 spots in the ratings, but still boast the 4th toughest schedule out of all 345 D-1 schools. There is only one school rated above us with a tougher schedule; #47 Long Beach St. has the 3rd strongest schedule. (Long Beach St lost to our next opponent Montana, but they came close to beating #10 Louisville; #6 Kansas; and #4 North Carolina, after beating #27 Pitt.) Our only remaining home game before WCC play is #166 Montana. Road games are at #312 Utah; and #111 Nevada. We open up WCC play against #32 Gonzaga in Spokane on 12/28.

#192 LMU (6-4) Slipped seven spots after beating #300 Idaho St. in OT at home.

#246 Pepperdine (5-4) Won on the road against #296 Northern Arizona and lost at home to #304 Cal St. Northridge. Weird!

#264- USD (5-5) Playing better of late, the Toreros moved up 19 positions by losing twice; once to cross-Interstate rival #60 San Diego St., and almost pulling off the upset but losing against #83 UCSB by four points at home. They also beat #219 Maine at home.

*(Ratings assigned by Ken Pomeroy /kenpom.com)