2013 Fall Season

I can't confirm it, but I heard there are two goalies in next years class.

Sorry it is one next year and one the year after.

Our home opener Marquette played Wisonsin in an exhibition today.

“@BadgerWSoccer: FINAL: #Badgers 5, #GoldenEagles 1. Impressive showing for squad in first action of 2013!”

Marquette's tweets talked about playing 7 freshmen.

I'm smiling: AllWhiteKit's Chris Henderson is picking the Pilots to finish first in the WCC.

Two games this weekend give us the opportunity to see how the team will take shape this season.

Is Frisbie on defense a permanent feature? Who is her partner going to be?

Assuming that Kurle and Parker are locked in at center mid, who plays outside?

And who partners Capelle upfront?

On Friday Garrett made five changes at half time, is he going to continue to give that many players time this weekend?

And will we see as much from the freshmen, especially Viera, Boon and Evans as starters?

Marquette and Oregon are a step up in level of challenge so we should have a better gauge of where things stand - both in terms of line up and level of performance (and therefore expectation) after these two games.

Go Pilots!

Top Drawer picks the Pilots to be 2nd. I am not a fan of their pre-season finishes.

TopDrawer Preseason WCC Poll

BYU was a couple of inches away from a College Cup appearance in 2012. The Cougars were denied by the Tar Heels in the Elite Eight by an unthinkable save from a sliding defender in overtime off Lindsi Lisonbee Cutshall’s golden chance at the game-winner.

The loss capped what was a very successful season for head coach Jennifer Rockwood and her group. Cutshall graduated, along with a few other key pieces to that team, which means the stage is set for a new group at BYU and, perhaps, a new champion in the West Coast Conference.

WCC Bio

2012 WCC Champion: BYU
Player of the Year: Lindi Lisonbee Cutshall, BYU
Defensive Player of the Year: Kendall Johnson, Portland
Goalkeeper of the Year: Erica Owens, BYU
Freshman of the Year: Michele Murphy, BYU
Coach of the Year: Jennifer Rockwood, BYU

Teams (2012 overall/conf. record):

Santa Clara (12-4-6/4-1-3)

After finishing third in the conference last season, Santa Clara has emerged as the clear favorite to win the WCC this fall. The preseason coaches’ poll was unanimous with the nine available first place votes all heading to the Broncos. U.S. Women’s National Team defender Julie Johnston headlines the roster for the Northern California program.

Johnston missed part of last season while playing for the World Cup winning U20 WNT in Japan. In her final collegiate season, the versatile piece is going to be the driving force of Santa Clara’s success.

Sofia Huerta is the other Bronco player with high expectations this fall. The junior forward from Boise was a preseason All-West Coast Conference selection, and should be in contention to lead the conference in goals scored with service from Johnston and current U20 WNT midfielder Dani Weatherholt.

Also, Nebraska transfer Morgan Marlborough enjoyed a great summer training with the women’s national team program and should be in line for a breakout fall campaign.

Portland (11-5-5/5-1-2)

The Pilots finished second in the WCC last season, and the preseason poll has them pegged to finish in the exact same spot. Santa Clara head coach Jerry Smith handed his first place vote to the Pilots as well – coaches cannot vote for their own team in preseason polls.

Portland returns nine starters from last year’s team including preseason All-WCC selections Michelle Cruz and Amanda Frisbie. The two honorees are part of a seven-player senior class for Portland this fall. Goalkeeper Erin Dees is another member of that senior class. Dees was the hero for Portland in the NCAA Tournament win over Washington State last season, and likely will be a major contributor to the program’s success this fall.

Freshmen Danica Evans and Allison Wetherington are ones to watch, as both have played club soccer at a high level and could contribute immediately. Evans led the Elite Clubs National League (ECNL), the top girls club soccer league in the U.S., last year in scoring for the U18 age group. Her club, Colorado Rush, reached the National Finals thanks to her dynamic play in the attack. Evans is fully capable of scoring from any spot on the field and will be a handful for WCC defenders.

BYU (20-2-2/7-0-1)

Last year’s WCC champion checks in at number three on the preseason coaches’ poll. The Cougars have to replace some pieces from 2012’s squad, but they do bring back a quartet of highly regarded players. Seniors Cloee Colohan, Rachel Manning, and Erica Owens all made the preseason All-WCC team, which was released last week. Sophomore Michele Murphy, the 2012 WCC Freshman of the Year, also made the cut for the preseason honor.

Murphy will need to carry more of the scoring load with Carlee Payne Holmoe’s graduation. The two combined to score 46 points last season. This fall, Murphy and junior Jaiden Thornock will be expected to do much of the heavy lifting for the BYU attack. With Owens in goal, they may not need to score many goals though.

Pepperdine (14-7-0/5-3-0)

Michelle Pao and Lynn Williams lead a resurgent Pepperdine squad into the 2013 season. The two standout returners both found a spot on the preseason All-WCC team. Williams is, arguably, the most difficult player in the WCC to mark for opposing defenses. With strength and speed, the target forward for Pepperdine will be top to stop this fall.

Pao brings veteran leadership to the spine of the squad, which will be needed with a roster that has only four seniors and 12 freshmen. With games against California, Texas A&M, Michigan, and UCLA within the first month of the season, Pepperdine will need to grow up quickly to stay competitive.

San Diego (8-11-0/4-4-0)

Junior defender Meghan O’Rourke was the lone Torrero to make the preseason All-WCC team. The junior helped the squad to six shutouts last season on the way to a fourth place finish in the very competitive WCC.

The Toreros main room for growth comes in the attack where they only scored 24 goals in 19 games. Dani Russell led the team in goals scored last year with four. Russell has graduated, and Emily Dillon is expected to carry much of the goal-scoring duty this fall after notching 11 points during his junior campaign.

Loyola Marymount (9-8-2/3-5-0)

With eight seniors on the roster this fall, the Lions are one of the oldest teams in the WCC. Will that type of experience help overcome some of the higher profile programs in the coming months?

San Francisco (7-8-4/2-5-1)

The Dons are another program looking to pull off a few surprises in 2013. San Francisco returns seven of its starters, as the Dons search for their first ever NCAA Tournament appearance in the 27th season for the program.

Returners Christina Moberg, Mackenzie Krieser, Megan Connor, and Jaciara Mello highlight the roster. The quartet combined for 37 points last fall for the ladies in yellow.

St. Mary's (CA) (6-12-2/1-7-0)

The Gaels are looking to improve on a disappointing 2012 campaign that only included one conference win. Saint Mary’s returns eight starters from last year’s squad including a talented sophomore trio of Caroline Beaulne, Anne Whipple, and Cassidy Lynch.

Gonzaga (8-11-1/1-6-1)

An 11-player incoming class is expected to help Gonzaga climb out of the bottom of the WCC this fall. Head coach Amy Edwards in her fifth season in charge got her group out on the right foot on Sunday with a preseason victory over Oklahoma.

Freshman Sarah Carter scored one goal and junior Tori Lee notched the game-winner for the Zags in the exhibition.

Pacific (3-14-1/0-8-1)

Pacific took its lumps in the Big West last season, and now moves onto an even more difficult conference in the WCC. Shoring up the defense would be a good place to start for Pacific after conceding 46 goals last season.

Keep in mind that topdrawersoccer picks aren't really a poll, but one guy's choices, and it appears he is using incorrect results from last year.

SCU was actually fourth in the conference last year behind Pepperdine on a tiebreaker, not third. They both finished with 15 points and Pepperdine beat SCU 2-1.  SCU  also had six first place votes last preseason.

Nice article in the Oregonian this morning:

Article

This is as good a thread as any:

AllWhiteKit's Chris Henderson has done a 1-time ranking of the top teams in relation to chances in the NCAA Tournament:

Tier A – Contenders For The Crown

1. Virginia
2. Florida State
3. North Carolina
4. UCLA
5. Virginia Tech
6. Portland
7. Michigan

Tier B – Lingering Doubts

8. Notre Dame
9. Penn State
10. West Virginia
11. Santa Clara
12. Marquette
13. Nebraska

Tier C – Lovably, But Fatally Flawed

14. Stanford
15. Cal
16. Wake Forest
17. Georgetown
18. Denver
19. Texas A&M
20. South Carolina
21. Florida

Tier D – Best of What’s Left

22. UCF
23. Kentucky
24. Texas Tech
25. Louisville

Check it out here: http://www.allwhitekit.com/?p=12343

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:AllWhiteKit's Chris Henderson has done a 1-time ranking of the top teams in relation to chances in the NCAA Tournament:

Tier A – Contenders For The Crown

1. Virginia
2. Florida State
3. North Carolina
4. UCLA
5. Virginia Tech
6. Portland
7. Michigan

I like the way Chris thinks.  There is no doubt the Pilots team is deeper and younger than we've seen in years.....and they're improving each week.....but with Cruz' status uncertain, they cannot afford more injuries to key players if they are to be a contender.

It's Fall Break at UP....no classes, and practice is over.....time for an actual "field trip."  

I saw the posting on AWK. They had seeding based on RPI and another without where he had ND on top. How could that be with their 4 losses?

First to go home?

gnarly wrote:I saw the posting on AWK.   They had seeding based on RPI and another without where he had ND on top.   How could that be with their 4 losses?

His seeding with Notre Dame at the top is based on the positive results teams have had against teams currently ranked in the top 50.  He indicates that another factor, that can't be applied now, will be how teams finish in their conferences and what their conferences' average ARPI ranks are at the end of the season.  These probably are the two most influential factors in seeding (head to head results and results against common opponents also are factors).

The other thing he says is that the seedings with Notre Dame at the top do not take into account the seed candidate groupings that appear to be part of the NCAA's seeding process.  History indicates that those groupings are as follows:

#1 Seed Candidates:  Teams ranked #1 through #6 in the ARPI

#2 Seed Candidates:  #7 through #13 plus the #1 Seed Candidates that don't get #1 seeds

#3 Seed Candidates:  #14 through #18, etc.

#4 Seed Candidates:  #19 through #25, etc.

He doesn't use those groupings now because it's way premature to know who will be in each group.

So, simply put, at this point Notre Dame has the best positive results against top 50 teams.  Who they lost to is not a factor.  And, based on history, nor would it be a factor in the Committee's seedings -- although Notre Dame will not get a #1 seed if, at the end of the season, it is not a top 6 team, which it probably won't be.

FYI, here is the formula AWK is using to evaluate results against top 50 teams:



You'll note that this formula is very heavily weighted towards good results against top teams. The extremity of the weighting may seem odd, but in relation to at large selections this formula produces selections that very nearly match the Committee's.

The main benefit from his "seedings," at this stage of the season, is to see how things evolve over the course of the season and to become familiar with what appear to be the key factors in the NCAA's decision-making process.

If you really want a lot of detailed information about this, go to the RPI for Division I Women's Soccer webpages and particularly these two:

https://sites.google.com/site/rpifordivisioniwomenssoccer/ncaa-tournament-predicting-the-bracket-doing-it-by-computer

https://sites.google.com/site/rpifordivisioniwomenssoccer/ncaa-tournament-predicting-the-bracket-seeding-by-computer

These two pages (and the one that precedes them) are truly brilliant.  

(The second of the above smilies is my favorite!)