2018 Offseason Thread

[Sound Voltex]

*lights up the grill*

No miracle in the play-in game this year.

Thoughts/speculations/news/etc.

[MesaPilot1]

Sound Voltex I would just like to compliment you on keeping Pilot fans up to date on interviews/news .

It was such a depressing game in the 2nd half and to end on a 7 game losing streak, I'm going to reserve my comments for a latter date.

[Geezaldinho]

Here’s a thought.

In Reveno’s third season he was 19-13.
The next year we hit 21 wins.

Anybody see that coming next year?

[NoPoNeighbor]

If next year's season started tomorrow, this would be our rotation:

PG: M. Porter, Walker
SG: Shaver, Clark, Jackson
SF: McSwiggan, F. Porter, Fahrensohn
PF: Diabate, Hogland, Phillips
C: Smoyer, Stone

That team is not coming close to a winning record unless a few things happen. First, we need another name in front of Smoyer's on the "C" line. That means our coaches had better work some magic on the transfer market. Based on Diabate's improvement over the course of the season, I think we can count on him to be better next year, which will be needed. Beyond that, we'll need significant (abnormally significant) improvement from McSwiggan and/or F. Porter. Those two could be very good. They showed flashes of brilliance, but we'll need more than flashes. We also need either M. Porter or Walker to develop into a consistently good PG, which includes providing an offensive weapon.

That's a lot that would need to go right. I don't see a winning record happening. 6th place in the WCC is a good goal. The problem is that our peers at the bottom of the conference are improving, probably more than we are. I'd guess that LMU is going to be better than us next year. They have good young guards, and their big Swedish center is going to be a force. Who knows what will happen at Pepperdine and USD over the course of the off-season, but both have the pieces on their rosters now to be better than the Pilots next year.

[Dean Murdoch]

What do we know for 2018-19 schedule?

Portland State away at their new arena?
Seattle at home?
Sacramento State at home?

[DoubleDipper]

What do we know for 2018-19 schedule?

Portland State away at their new arena?
Seattle at home?
Sacramento State at home?

Really? Don't you want some time to get over the frustrations of this season before thinking about the next one?  

Yes, the three schools you list are likely opponents for next season as UP now has good working/scheduling relations with all three, and PSU's Stott Center renovation should be complete next month.  

To give schools a few more days get their preseason schedule completed by Christmas, all D1 teams will now be able to begin their schedule three days earlier than usual, this year on Tuesday November 6.

The preseason schedule will begin leaking out in June and the WCC schedule will probably be released in August, but what we do expect is GU will again be UP's "travel partner" (not sure why they are called travel partners when GU travels on chartered jets and the Pilots fly coach), as the league goes back to teams playing at home one week and on the road the next.

I believe UP will open its season against the Darwin Cook coached NAIA University of Antelope Valley Pioneers on November 6th in Portland, and will then travel to Honolulu to play three games in four days as part of the Outrigger Resorts Rainbow Classic on Veterans Day weekend, November 9-12.  I don't know who the opponents are, but in recent years the tournament has featured mid-major teams only.  

See you there, Deaner?  I'm sure we'll see Sound Voltex!

[Sound Voltex]

I believe UP will open its season against the Darwin Cook coached NAIA University of Antelope Valley Pioneers on November 6th in Portland, and will then travel to Honolulu to play three games in four days as part of the Outrigger Resorts Rainbow Classic on Veterans Day weekend, November 9-12.  I don't know who the opponents are, but in recent years the tournament has featured mid-major teams only.  

See you there, Deaner?  I'm sure we'll see Sound Voltex!  

We shall see where life takes me around that time. As much as it is a great place to vacation/retire/have a martini watching the sunset, unless you love the beach/outdoors so much you would marry it, trying to actually make a living here comes at a high price, along with a lot of the common problems recently seen in west coast cities (homeless, traffic, etc) except worse and politics that I question every day (look no further back than the recent missile alert debacle   ) but I digress.

Great homecoming for Hugh, who played many state championship games and won a title during his high school days in the Stan Sheriff Center. I believe Marcus also played some middle school basketball here (small private Catholic school called Maryknoll, attracts a lot of new Pilots every year) before settling in Arizona.

By the way, this is not to be confused with the Diamond Head Classic held in December, in which Saint Mary's is participating in this year.

2018 looks to be the year of Hawaii for the WCC. Gonzaga is also going to the Maui Jim Invitational in Lahaina.

[ExpatPilot]

...PSU's Stott Center renovation should be complete next month.

Check out the progress: http://dwpwebcams.com/psu/

Tuesday November 6

Election Day? At least Oregon has mail-in ballots. I am dreading the upcoming day when I surrender that right to whatever state I claim as a permanent resident.

I believe UP will open its season against the Darwin Cook coached NAIA University of Antelope Valley Pioneers on November 6th in Portland,

Wow! I had no idea that Darwin Cook was their head coach! They are recently CalPac Champions it seems and are seeded in the NAIA Division II Tournament. Congrats!

Unrelated: Sometimes every few years the Pilots make East Coast trips to play teams over where when we have some East Coast representation on the team. Any plans for a future swing over here?

[bdaddy]

I’m a little more optimistic than some of you out there. I think a .500 record next year is pretty attainable. We were the youngest team in the league this year and were still competitive in most games this season, including some against the top 3.

One thing I’m curious about is the status of the redshirt players this year. Is there anyone out there that has seen some practices that could provide a recent scouting report on Hogland, Clark, and Fahrensohn? Specifically, I’m interested if anyone thinks they can legitimately challenge for minutes. Can Hogland play over Smoyer? Is either Clark or Fahrensohn a reasonable threat to take any of DeMo’s minutes?

[Guest]

Clark is the player with the most upside. It will all depend on how he plays after his knee injury. If there are no affects and he plays without fear, he is a candidate for best player.

[DTLegend]

Just read an interesting tweet from Joe Lunardi of ESPN describing the keys to conference tourney wins.

1.keep your identity
2. Play with confidence
3. Stay loose
4. Leadership is a must
5.need a Batman and robin.

I found it interesting because I feel like these are the keys to a successful mid major program. It also raised some good questions moving forward like:

What is our identity? With such a young team, identity can be a challenge to establish. Now that we’re through two seasons with Porter at the helm I’m not quite sure what the intended identity of this team is.

How will our comfort and confidence as a team progress this offseason? It’s no secret Losing can take a toll on confidence and will the lackluster results over the past two years have lasting effects for the worse or can the team galvanize around exposure and experience at the D1 level?

Where is the leadership coming from moving forward and who will establish themselves as the “go-to” player?

These in my opinion are the biggest questions surrounding the program as a whole. There will be questions about individual players and how they develop but as a program this is what I’m curious about.

[DoubleDipper]

Election Day? At least Oregon has mail-in ballots. I am dreading the upcoming day when I surrender that right to whatever state I claim as a permanent resident.

Oh, don't even get me started on the absurdity of Election Day being on a Tuesday...

Sure, I understand the argument that the first Tuesday in November is after the harvest comes in and before the bitter cold of winter, and having the elections on Tuesday allows the voters to attend church on Sunday and then drive their wagons to the polling place that's over a day away, but wake-up America, it's no longer 1848, or even 2016.

If we are to get people to vote we need to make postage-paid mail-in ballots available to all, and for those who still like to pull levers or punch holes in cards, election day should be at least three days in length and include part of the weekend!

Fortunately, I've been able to vote "absentee" or live in mail-in voting states since beginning to vote at age 21 (yes, young Americans, it was not until 1971 when young men were being sent to Vietnam to kill or be killed without representation that the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18 years of age), but as fewer than 60% of Americans voted in the last couple of general elections, it's time for America to change the rules....something our "elected" representatives are loath to do.

Sorry for the rant, but if people don't vote they cannot complain about their government....if we are to live in a true democracy, all must participate!

[blacksheep]

Election Day? At least Oregon has mail-in ballots. I am dreading the upcoming day when I surrender that right to whatever state I claim as a permanent resident.

Oh, don't even get me started on the absurdity of Election Day being on a Tuesday...

Sure, I understand the argument that the first Tuesday in November is after the harvest comes in and before the bitter cold of winter, and having the elections on Tuesday allows the voters to attend church on Sunday and then drive their wagons to the polling place that's over a day away, but wake-up America, it's no longer 1848, or even 2016.

If we are to get people to vote we need to make postage-paid mail-in ballots available to all, and for those who still like to pull levers or punch holes in cards, election day should be at least three days in length and include part of the weekend!

Fortunately, I've been able to vote "absentee" or live in mail-in voting states since beginning to vote at age 21 (yes, young Americans, it was not until 1971 when young men were being sent to Vietnam to kill or be killed without representation that the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18 years of age), but as fewer than 60% of Americans voted in the last couple of general elections, it's time for America to change the rules....something our "elected" representatives are loath to do.

Sorry for the rant, but if people don't vote they cannot complain about their government....if we are to live in a true democracy, all must participate!

If you don't vote in Oregon, there's nothing that's going to make you do it. It couldn't be any easier. Registration is automatic when you get a license. They mail you a ballot and give you a couple weeks to get it back. Tons of ballot drop boxes all over town if you don't want to mail it. Paid postage? Does anyone really trust the post office to get their ballot in? Do we need to include a pen in case you don't have one?

Rant/Hijack over.

[Guest]

Sorry for the rant, but if people don't vote they cannot complain about their government....if we are to live in a true democracy, all must participate!

We do not live in a true democracy, we live in a republic.  I'm OK with people who have no interest in following the issues, and only respond to emotions and feel-goods, not voting.

Hence the concentration of power and the subjection of individuals will increase among democratic nations, not only in the same proportion as their equality, but in the same proportion as their ignorance.

Please, back to off-season basketball.

[DoubleDipper]

Please, back to off-season basketball.

OK....I agree.

That team is not coming close to a winning record unless a few things happen.

Oh, I think the 2018-19 Pilots can come close to a winning record, NPN, but I agree with your argument that a few things must happen!

As D1 players begin to come and go during this offseason we might get a better idea of the Pilots potential record or where the they could finish in the WCC over the next two or three years, but there is no doubt in my mind the "bottom six" schools in the WCC are all trending upward…

In 2017 Verbal Commits counted 883 D1 transfers (that's over 2.5 players per school), and that mark will likely be equaled in 2018 (there are already 89 as of this morning), and at least a couple of UP players may look to transfer while the UP coaches look to snag at least one BIG TRANSFER in addition to filling the roster with high school, JUCO, or overseas players.

It's difficult to predict who might leave the team, I think we were all a little surprised when Gabe Taylor left last year, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me if Rashad and Austin left to play their final year at a lower division.  I think the concern among many is whether Marcus will return after such a good first season on the Bluff.  On more than one occasion during telecasts, the analysts have questioned Marcus staying at UP, and it's obvious from his potential for even better performances in the future that other schools will be showing great interest if he asks for his release from UP.  My guess is he’s the kind of kid who will need to be recruited over and over by the UP coaches each season to keep him on the Bluff.

The one big positive for next year will be Crisshawn Clark's return to action....if he can remain healthy. He's been participating in 5 on 5 practices for a month, and from the little I've observed, will be UP's biggest threat and possible MVP next season.  I expect Josh and Tahirou will both show marked improvement next season (Josh should score at least 14 ppg), and I'm not at all concerned about JoJo and Malcolm at the point.  JoJo is the much better of the two, IMO, but Malcolm played much better than expected and should get even better going forward.  It was pretty obvious that JoJo was worn-out the last six weeks of the season after being called upon to lead the team through a very tough D1 schedule directly out of high school. The primary role of the PG is to distribute the ball, but score if the opportunity is there.  Next season there should be more opportunities to distribute to potential scorers.  

Engineering student Joseph may not be dedicated enough to the game to improve much for next season, but Hugh has been looking good in practice, and although his offensive abilities are still unknown, his potential to be a very good rim protector and rebounder is obvious. Taki is an unknown because of the lingering knee injury that has limited his practice time, but if his reputation for putting the ball through the hoop materializes and he can play some minutes at point guard, it will take a lot of pressure off the others.  I expect 2018 signee, Josh Phillips, to redshirt.

Not sure if walk-on Brian Smith will return….he's a great kid and a very good player, but he really needs to be on scholarship at a D2 school so he can get his education paid for....hopefully the coaches will help him with that. Xavier is back as a walk-on, and we all know he is capable of being a very good backup point guard...and who knows, maybe he's matured into an even better player than we remember. Another expected walk-on is 6-8 Wyatt Watson from Bellingham. Besides being a pretty decent high school player (I've watched him on tape), he's a 4.0 student and has been accepted on scholarship into the engineering program at UP.

I believe that leaves just one player, walk-on Franklin Porter, that hasn't been mentioned.  An enigma in some ways, Franklin was the star of summer ball and the England trip while outplaying everyone and showing great leadership, but once the season got deeper and deeper he seemed to be out of control on the court while attempting to do too much, too often. I guess we'll just have to adopt a wait-and-see attitude with Franklin, who was the third overall leading scorer this season, but only the sixth leading scorer during WCC play.

It's the final week of classes before spring break, and it will probably be a couple of weeks before the players and coaches sit down for a thorough debrief of the season and talk about the future, but I think we can expect to hear rumors about transfers soon after that, if not before.

UP currently has one open scholarship, and it wouldn’t surprise me if others opened up, but in the meantime I'm quite sure the coaches will be hosting potential recruits on campus and scouting the potential recruits that could make next season a winning season for the Pilots….because with the current roster they can only come close.

[NoPoNeighbor]

On more than one occasion during telecasts, the analysts have questioned Marcus staying at UP, and it's obvious from his potential for even better performances in the future that other schools will be showing great interest if he asks for his release from UP.

I guess I missed those comments on the telecasts. I can't recall ever hearing a broadcaster, during a game, discuss the potential that a player might transfer. It just seems a little crass somehow, as if the announcer is stating that the player is too good for his team. It's too bad that a broadcaster would talk that way about Shaver and the Pilots on a telecast. That kind of thing isn't what UP would want any potential future Pilots and their families to hear as they might be watching the game.

[Stonehouse]

[quote="DoubleDipper"]

I think the concern among many is whether Marcus will return after such a good first season on the Bluff.  On more than one occasion during telecasts, the analysts have questioned Marcus staying at UP, and it's obvious from his potential for even better performances in the future that other schools will be showing great interest if he asks for his release from UP.  My guess is he’s the kind of kid who will need to be recruited over and over by the UP coaches each season to keep him on the Bluff.

I've been worried about this a bit too, if only because Marcus' recruitment story was a bit atypical... he had committed to UCSB in the fall, but then a coaching change there resulted in him re-opening his recruitment in the spring and a whirlwind recruitment period landed him at UP.

I certainly hope that he stays on The Bluff and that he sees the potential in this group that I think most of us also see. The core group of Sikma, Stohl, Raivio, Knutson, Smeulders, Neidermeyer... they all took their lumps early on in their careers, but stuck together and ended up having some truly great success. I think the same is possible with this group if they can stick with it.

[DoubleDipper]

I guess I missed those comments on the telecasts. I can't recall ever hearing a broadcaster, during a game, discuss the potential that a player might transfer.

I only heard it once, but others said they heard it on another ROOT broadcast....don't know if it was the same guy saying it.

What I heard was the play-by-play guy sayings something to the affect that "Shaver is a really good one, he's going to really develop during his four years at Portland."  To which the analyst replied (paraphrasing). "If he stays at Portland! There are a lot of big programs/schools who could benefit if Shaver were to transfer."

The play-by-play guy then tried to help the analyst walk-back what he'd said, but it was clear the analyst didn't think UP was a quality program deserving a student-athlete like Shaver.

[StudentPilot]

It's difficult to predict who might leave the team, I think we were all a little surprised when Gabe Taylor left last year, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me if Rashad and Austin left to play their final year at a lower division.

I knew Gabe pretty well, and was very surprised he transferred.  

After reading DD's post today I asked Austin if he was considering leaving.  He said, yes, he plans to leave to PLAY D2 ball somewhere, but doesn't know where. He really likes everything about UP, but as he only has one year of eligibility remaining, he doesn't want to be a practice player only....he wants to play!

I haven't seen Rashad today to ask him if he too was thinking of leaving UP.

[Guest]

It is tough. The team needs 12-14 guys on the roster, but in reality only 8 or so are going to play significant minutes.

Good luck to Stone Cold Austin.

[DoubleDipper]

Engineering student Joseph may not be dedicated enough to the game to improve much for next season....

Confirmed to me by a UP engineering professor, Joseph Smoyer will be transferring.

Another case of lots of work, but no playing time to show for it.

Apparently plans to head east, possibly to the Ivy League, and still plans to play basketball despite his heavy engineering studies load.

With Joseph and Austin leaving, UP has three available scholarships.

[Guest]

We are getting shorter by the minute.

[Sound Voltex]

Unfortunate for Smoyer and Stone, but understandable and not surprising.

Was going to post this sooner or later, but this is/was my tier-list of predictions of active players likely to transfer. Redshirts and walk-on(s) not included.

High:
Stone
Jackson
Smoyer

Medium:
Shaver
Walker

Low:
McSwiggan
Diabate
M Porter
F Porter

Taking this with a grain of salt, but I remember stumbling upon a comment sometime around/right after PK80 on a Shaver highlights video from a person saying he was a relative of Shaver that said Shaver was thinking of leaving due to playing time and the "coach-coaching-sons" influence.

A lot has changed since PK80 with Shaver playing a more prominent role with a lot of playing time, so whether or not that has since changed his mind or not (whether the claim by the supposed relative was true or not)...we'll have to wait and see I guess.

[Guest]

Marcus played 914 minutes this year, second most on the team behind Josh. He played 71.4% of the total available minutes.

[DoubleDipper]

Taking this with a grain of salt, but I remember stumbling upon a comment sometime around/right after PK80 on a Shaver highlights video from a person saying he was a relative of Shaver that said Shaver was thinking of leaving due to playing time and the "coach-coaching-sons" influence.

I'm surprised the "coach-coaching-sons" situation hasn't been raised more often on this forum....IMO, it's a bad circumstance.

Regardless of how TP treats his sons, or how many minutes of court time they get, there is always going to be the deep down feeling of unfairness on the part of those who don't play as often, and on the part of their family, friends, and fans in general.  

The UP teams that have done well in the past have had, without exception, good chemistry....the current team lacks that chemistry, and I attribute that to having sons of the coach on the team.  I'm not saying Malcolm and Franklin aren't really good guys (in fact I know they are), but just the perception of nepotism can destroy the camaraderie of a team.

It's true that Franklin was "the star" before the season started, and it was weighing on Marcus, but as the season wore on, it was pretty obvious that Marcus was the best player on the court, and he got the bulk of playing time.

Time and again I've had fans approach me after a game telling me of their "strong disappointment" that the Porters, who in their minds were not D1 caliber players, were getting playing time at the expense of others, and that it had to be hurting UP's recruiting because recruits could see this.

I'm somewhat embarrassed to say that I've yelled such things as, "be coach on the court, not a dad," but I think TP is seeing the negative affects of playing his sons in front of others that may be more deserving.  We all heard TP's joking statement to the affect that he'd "have to play his sons or explain why he's not to their mother," but I'm confident next season it will be about winning by putting the best players on the court....and if the recruiting and team development goes as planned, there may not be much court time for either Porter.