Re: The Preseason WCC & Non-Conference Opponent Thread, Part 1

by Dean Murdoch Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:21 pm

I see tonight's Arizona State/USF game has been postponed due to air quality concerns. Tough break, I was quite interested in that one as a measuring stick for USF.

I'm assuming Northridge is far enough south that there's no chance of similar issues for tomorrow's Pilots game?

by Guest Fri Nov 16, 2018 5:58 pm

Dean Murdoch wrote:I see tonight's Arizona State/USF game has been postponed due to air quality concerns. Tough break, I was quite interested in that one as a measuring stick for USF.

I'm assuming Northridge is far enough south that there's no chance of similar issues for tomorrow's Pilots game?

Looks like the air quality in Northridge is good.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=dd4a15deed8647edacb14f140ca83d05

by **PilotNut** Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:01 pm

Dean Murdoch wrote:I'm assuming Northridge is far enough south that there's no chance of similar issues for tomorrow's Pilots game?

I was wondering that as well... the 11/10 CSUN @ Pepperdine game was postponed, however that was due to the terrifying scene in Malibu. Northridge is only about 30 miles NE from Malibu however...

CSUN's website has an article for the game, so that is a good sign: LINK

by DoubleDipper Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:18 pm

I've heard reports from many of my friends and relatives in and around the Bay Area that it's just too dangerous for all residents now due to the air quality and they are evacuating to safer areas. The aviation forecasts I've seen show it will remain that way for at least another five days...

The smoke forecasts for the LA area are actually pretty good right now despite the fires in the area because the wind is blowing in from the ocean (unlike the Bay Area where it is an offshore wind), and it is expected to remain that way for several days.

by Dean Murdoch Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:28 pm

Dean Murdoch wrote:WCC as a whole could be up, but I think you'll find out a lot in the coming days. SMC at New Mexico State tomorrow, Texas A&M at Gonzaga on Thursday, and Friday has Arizona State at USF and LMU/Georgetown on a neutral court in Jamaica. First chances for the conference to really prove it's a step up this year on the A10.

SMC at New Mexico State = win for WCC
Texas A&M at Gonzaga = win for WCC
Georgetown/LMU = win for WCC
Arizona State at USF = win for wildfire

I'll be damned, tip of the hat to the rest of the conference. I'd sure like it if the Pilots could chip in a bit here in the next few games.

by Sound Voltex Sun Nov 18, 2018 10:18 pm

Around the WCC yesterday and today:
BYU 91, Alabama A&M 60
Georgia Southern 88, Pepperdine 78
Pepperdine 86, Miami (OH)
Loyola Marymount 65, Ohio 56
San Francisco 84, LIU Brooklyn 52
Washington 82, Santa Clara 68

by DoubleDipper Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:06 pm

Sound Voltex wrote:Around the WCC yesterday and today:
BYU 91, Alabama A&M 60
Georgia Southern 88, Pepperdine 78
Pepperdine 86, Miami (OH) 80
Loyola Marymount 65, Ohio 56
San Francisco 84, LIU Brooklyn 52
Washington 82, Santa Clara 68

PU pulled a UP today by coming from 18 points down with 16 minutes to go in the game for the win.

Santa Clara has had a rough go of it so far, 0-3, and the bad luck continues with the indefinite loss of the Broncos leading scoring, KJ Fagin, with a broken hand.

LMU and USF looked very good in their wins.

It's still very early in the preseason, but the WCC is already breaking into three groups below an excellent GU squad:

Very Good: BYU, SMC, USF (combined 11-1, the lone loss by BYU to #7 Nevada in Reno)
Good: USD, LMU, UOP (11-2, the only losses were USD at UW, and UOP at #7 Nevada)
Not so Good: PU, UP, SCU (5-7)

by wrv Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:07 am

The abiding question this year for the Pilots, players and staff, is when or whether the recruiting hype will affect that "not so good" label? We have been "not so good" for generations, excepting Reveno's initial years and Chavez's tourney team and a few other select years, so maybe I should be used to it.

The staff appears knowledgeable, capable and determined, even though wins over quality opponents remain few. I support the staff and hope for the best despite our start. Three years in isn't it fair to expect objective results in the form of some wins over quality opponents? Former NBA four time all star Mark Price was let go three years after hiring by Charlotte for a lack of performance. Terry Porter is the type of quality individual we all root for . . .but let's get some wins Terry.

I think we are getting better. The tournament in Hawaii and the first half of the game against CSUN makes me wonder though.

by NoPoNeighbor Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:22 am

NoPoNeighbor wrote:Half of the WCC is currently in KenPom's top 100 (+2):
GU 7
BYU 57
SMC 60
USF 98
USD 102

Pilots bringing up the rear at 235.

Average KenPom ranking of the top 5 teams in a few non-P6 conferences:
American 59.2
WCC 64.8
Mountain West 85.8
A10 94
CUSA 105
Mid-American 105.4
Missouri Valley 105.4
Big Sky 166.6
Big West 167.2

This is kind of unbelievable, but 6 out of 10 WCC teams are now in KenPom's top 104:
GU: 6
SMC: 47
BYU: 56
USF: 80
USD: 100
LMU: 104

The Pilots are now in 9th, at 230. Santa Clara has dropped below us to 243.

Average KenPom ranking of (top 6 teams / bottom 4 teams) in the top non-P6 leagues:
American 62.5 / 199.5
WCC 65.5 / 205.8
MW 93.7 / 228.5
A10 96.7 / 209.8
CUSA 104.7 / 284.8

The bottom line is that the WCC is running neck-and-neck with the American for best conference outside of the P6, both in terms of the quality of the top of the league and the bottom of the league.

by Dean Murdoch Mon Nov 19, 2018 5:29 pm

wrv wrote:Three years in isn't it fair to expect objective results in the form of some wins over quality opponents?

Very fair.

I’m kind of in wait-and-see mode, myself. This team was designed with the expectation that Clark and Tryon would play major contributing roles, and I’m looking forward to seeing how the Pilots look with both of these guys in the lineup.

by DoubleDipper Tue Nov 20, 2018 2:21 pm

The best game last night was #3 GU's win over Illinois in Maui. The Fightin-Illini got within 2 points with about 30 seconds remaining, but GU fought back to win, 84-78.

SMC finally picked up a loss (and it was at home) as they couldn't pull off a UP second half after being down 41-29 at the intermission, finally losing, 80-63 to Utah St.

The game to watch tonight will be GU vs. Arizona. The winner will likely play #1 Duke, but they'll have to get by a very tough matchup with #8 Auburn tonight in Maui to make it to the final.

I scouted Cal Poly against WSU on tape. Coach Geving considers the Mustangs to be "the team to beat" in the Portland Classic, and they did look very dangerous in their loss to WSU after losing to Arizona a week earlier. The Cal Poly vs. Texas St. matchup on Wednesday should be interesting.

by Guest Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:24 pm

GU was down 8 at the half to Arizona, but blew them out by 25 in the 2nd half, to win 91-74. They only shot 9-29 from 3P, and 14-21 on FTs. But they were 25 of 35 on 2P shots. Hachimura with 24, Novell with 20, Perkins with 18, and the San Jose transfer Clarke with 18.

SCU lost to Minnesota, 80-66.
UOP lost to UNLV, 96-70.
USD beat Colorado 70-64. Pineiro had 27.

by DoubleDipper Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:23 am

up7587 wrote:GU was done 8 at the half to Arizona, but blew them out by 25 in the 2nd half, to win 91-74.
USD beat Colorado 70-64. Pineiro had 27.

Always nice to see the WCC take two from the Pac-12

Has this ever happened before? There are six WCC teams in action today, and the only two NOT favored to win their games are GU and SMC.

But of course, that’s because those two teams are playing tougher opponents then the rest of the WCC:

#1 Duke favored by 4 over #6 GU in Maui
#56 BYU favored by 18 at home over #276 Rice
#25 Mississippi St. favored by 5 over #62 SMC in Las Vegas
#76 USF favored by 5 at home over #97 Harvard
#105 LMU favored by 13 at home over #264 Central Connecticut
#230 Portland favored by 9 at home over #320 USC Upstate

(All numbers are from KenPom)

by **PilotNut** Wed Nov 21, 2018 2:54 pm

Gonzaga continues to look really good... Shocked

by Guest Wed Nov 21, 2018 3:09 pm

PilotNut wrote:Gonzaga continues to look really good...

I'm thinking only playing them once this year is fine.

by Guest Wed Nov 21, 2018 3:30 pm

I looked up the box score of the Pilot's game at San Jose St. in 2016/17. Brandon Clarke had 28 points, 10 rebounds, 5 blocks. But the Pilots won 79-66. Clarke had little help. He left after that year, to transfer to GU. Currently playing head to head with projected #1 pick Williamson from Duke.

by Dean Murdoch Wed Nov 21, 2018 4:46 pm

Tip of the cap to Gonzaga, well played.

Glad that game is over, now we can concentrate on the real stuff - go Pilots, beat USC Upstate!

by DoubleDipper Wed Nov 21, 2018 4:47 pm

Memories fade, but GU's 2 point win over Duke was they best basketball game I can remember.

Looking forward to the rematch in April when Duke's freshmen will be freshmen in name only, and GU has Killian Tillie back.

Some tough games ahead for GU...Creighton away, UW, Tennessee, and North Carolina away, but it's a good start!

by DoubleDipper Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:11 pm

DoubleDipper wrote:#1 Duke favored by 4 over #6 GU in Maui
#56 BYU favored by 18 at home over #276 Rice
#25 Mississippi St. favored by 5 over #62 SMC in Las Vegas
#76 USF favored by 5 at home over #97 Harvard
#105 LMU favored by 13 at home over #264 Central Connecticut
#230 Portland favored by 9 at home over #320 USC Upstate

The only prediction that proved inaccurate was GU's exciting win over Duke...

by Guest Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:13 pm

USF with a 4 point win, barely failed to cover. LMU trailed at half, and made 2 FTs with a second remaining for a 2 point win, so they missing covering substantially. SMC lost by 4, so beat the spread. UP and BYU covered easily.

by Guest Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:50 pm

Only one other WCC game tonight. UOP lost at home to an undefeated Abilene Christian 73-71.

by Sound Voltex Sat Nov 24, 2018 11:32 pm

Around the WCC tonight:
San Francisco 84, Dartmouth 65
Houston 76, BYU 62
Santa Clara 71, San José St 63
Harvard 74, Saint Mary's 68
San Diego 76, Jackson State 58
Loyola Marymount 71, Florida A&M 63
Pacific 65, Elon 57

by Dean Murdoch Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:47 am

First edition of the NCAA NET rankings are out. Forget everything I said earlier this thread when I figured that I had a half decent handle on how this thing would work.

LMU is apparently well on its way to a 3 seed in the tournament according to this thing. Go figure.

by DoubleDipper Mon Nov 26, 2018 5:13 pm

Makes no sense the NCAA would release something like this so early in the season before enough data is even available to discuss possible Tournament seeding. I can only guess the NCAA likes to be part of the conversation even if they look foolish and are the butt of the jokes. geek

Pretty cool that LMU is #10 in the nation (UP is #247), but a #2 or #3 seed in March is probably not in the cards….

by dholcombe Mon Nov 26, 2018 6:00 pm

Only UP and Santa Clara are outside the top 150. Over half the conference is in the top 100.

Maybe the WCC will live to regret cutting two games from the conference schedule instead of playing additional games against the now highly rated by NET in conference teams. I suppose it depends on if the majority of conference teams also win those two games or lose them just before the conference games start.