UOP at Pilots, 1/16/20, 7PM

Moving on from last Saturday's debacle, Damon and his Pacific Tigers come to Chiles Thursday. They are tied for second in the WCC at 2-1, winning at PU, beating SMC in that 4OT game, and losing at home to USF last weekend. Too bad the transitive property never works in sports.

They are led in scoring by 3 guards who all have good size. They go deep into their roster; 11 guys played against USF, and 5 guys came off the bench to play 10 or more minutes.

Hope the Pilots have a strategy to get some early points, so they don't get left in the starter's blocks again.

I think it's safe to say the Pilots have already played the two best teams in the WCC, GU and BYU, and many consider UP's third opponent, USF, to be the 4th or 5th team behind SMC...and the other team in the in the top-5 or 6 is UOP.

The Tigers have a ton of talent, the most since they've rejoined the WCC, IMO, and they have a lot fun on the court too.

UOP is led by #0 Jahlil Tripp who averaged almost 24 point per game in UOP's wins over SMC and PU, and their loss to USF their last time out.

I haven't seen the odds yet, but as good as UOP is, I doubt they'll be favored by more than 3 or 4 over the Pilots.

If Taki is back on the court and the Pilots can continue to hit from the free-throw line, the Pilots could beat UOP in the Chiles Center for the first time in four years...Damon Stoudamire has never lost to the Pilots in Portland.

Well, you better go tell Diabate and Chase about this streak like you did before the USF game.

And while you’re at it, tell them the Pilots haven’t danced since 1996!

Dean Murdoch wrote:Well, you better go tell Diabate and Chase about this streak like you did before the USF game.

And while you’re at it, tell them the Pilots haven’t danced since 1996!

I'll probably hold off on the Dance, but I'll be sure to let Isaiah, D, and Chase know that TP has never beaten Damon in the Chiles Center...thanks for the reminder.

DoubleDipper wrote:I haven't seen the odds yet, but as good as UOP is, I doubt they'll be favored by more than 3 or 4 over the Pilots.

The opening line has the Tigers by 3.5 points with an o/u of a pretty low 129.

The Tigers have a very good defense, so it might be up to the Pilots to help those who pick the over...

Pacific appears to play mostly a four-guard lineup with minutes at the post position spread fairly evenly across three players (hey, that sounds familiar).

No doubt the defensive game plan for the Pilots will be how to guard Jahlil Tripp, who has developed into an all-conference caliber player for Pacific.

Idaho State grad transfer Gary Chivichyan can shoot the absolute crap out of the ball. One of Kenpom's features (best $20 I spend all year) is that for each year of a player's career, it finds another player that it matches as a "similar player". Chivichyan's similar player last year was none other than D'Marques Tyson, so that should be a clue that the Pilots can't leave this guy open at any time. Just ask Saint Mary's.

And a recent development for Pacific is the emergence of Jahbril Price-Noel. Was barely averaging double figures in minutes per game, but has seen his playing time spike since the injury to Justin Moore and has been great (15 PPG and leads the WCC in offensive rating).

I think it'll be a good game.

DoubleDipper wrote:The opening line has the Tigers by 3.5 points with an o/u of a pretty low 129.

Must be quite a few people wagering on UOP, the spread is now 5 points...

DoubleDipper wrote:

DoubleDipper wrote:The opening line has the Tigers by 3.5 points with an o/u of a pretty low 129.

Must be quite a few people wagering on UOP, the spread is now 5 points...

Maybe they watched the first 4 minutes at BYU, then turned it off.

#11 in the nation out of 353 teams in three-point percentage and the Pilots had ONE 3PT attempt in the first half. ONE!!

I'm also presenting the following from Kenpom without comment. It's a list of all 11 WCC players with a usage level of 24% or more (which should be considered extremely high), and sorted by offensive rating.

Apparently the game plan is to take no 3's, run plays without passing the ball, and get to the FT line, only to miss half of them. This offensive play makes no sense to me, but I don't know what UOP is keeping them from doing.

DoubleDipper wrote:If Taki is back on the court and the Pilots can continue to hit from the free-throw line...

Taki was not able to play and the Pilots were 20-29 (69%), but only 9-16 in the first half (56%).

Dean Murdoch wrote:I'm also presenting the following from Kenpom without comment. It's a list of all 11 WCC players with a usage level of 24% or more (which should be considered extremely high), and sorted by offensive rating.

The coaching strategy is to establish an inside game, which then opens the floor for outside shots. But I have been scratching my head at them continuing to force the ball inside to Diabate. His shooting percentage from the floor is a little over 50%, which is poor considering he never shoots from more than a couple feet away. And his free throw deficiencies mean he can be fouled to prevent a score, since he rarely makes more than 50% of his free throws.

DoubleDipper wrote:

DoubleDipper wrote:If Taki is back on the court and the Pilots can continue to hit from the free-throw line...

Taki was not able to play and the Pilots were 20-29 (69%), but only 9-16 in the first half (56%).

Malcolm was 6-6, the rest of the team was 60%. And Chase made a couple in garbage time, but missed two badly when the outcome was still in doubt.

Props to UOP's #4 Crockrell, a freshman from Tacoma. He was being deliberately fouled late in the game because his FT% was 38% coming into the game. He literally has the yips when he is attempting a FT. But he made his first two attempts, and ended up 4-8. Not bad for a guy being targeted to send to the line.

up7587 wrote:The coaching strategy is to establish an inside game, which then opens the floor for outside shots.  But I have been scratching my head at them continuing to force the ball inside to Diabate.  His shooting percentage from the floor is a little over 50%, which is poor considering he never shoots from more than a couple feet away.  And his free throw deficiencies mean he can be fouled to prevent a score, since he rarely makes more than 50% of his free throws.

And this isn't just isolated to Diabate. The game plan is exactly the same whether it's him or Akwuba in the post. Force it inside over and over and over again. They were still doing it down 10 with five minutes to go. They're clearly instructed not to ever look at passing it out of the low post - simply get the ball, and get to the hoop.

Oh, and I have a new chart from Kenpom (the best $20 I spend all year). Diabate's usage rate now has him considered as one of just three "go-to guys" in the WCC. That group includes projected first round pick Filip Petrusev, first-team all-conference Colbey Ross, and Diabate.



And don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking Diabate here. I truly think he could be a solid contributor if he was used more realistically within this offence, but he's currently being asked to play a role normally reserved for truly elite offensive players at this level.

Dean Murdoch wrote:#11 in the nation out of 353 teams in three-point percentage and the Pilots had ONE 3PT attempt in the first half. ONE!!

Update - it took until the game’s 34th minute for the second 3PT attempt of the night.

Dean Murdoch wrote:

Dean Murdoch wrote:#11 in the nation out of 353 teams in three-point percentage and the Pilots had ONE 3PT attempt in the first half. ONE!!

Update - it took until the game’s 34th minute for the second 3PT attempt of the night.

Yeah, Malcom was at the 3P line with the ball, and no one came out to guard him. He hesitated, then decided, heck, might as well shoot. Made it. TP applauded, so I guess it wasn't against the rules to shoot it. That was the last 3P attempt until desperation time, when JoJo threw up three prayers that had no chance.

DoubleDipper wrote:

Dean Murdoch wrote:Well, you better go tell Diabate and Chase about this streak like you did before the USF game.

And while you’re at it, tell them the Pilots haven’t danced since 1996!

I'll probably hold off on the Dance, but I'll be sure to let Isaiah, D, and Chase know that TP has never beaten Damon in the Chiles Center...thanks for the reminder.

I had a quick chat with all three just before tipoff, but UOP was just too long, too large, and too physical for the trio.

Some have said the Pilots should have attempted more 3-pt attempts but IMO, they couldn't because the Tigers' defense totally shut-down the Pilots' perimeter shooting by extending their defense while still blocking/misdirecting almost everything inside and not allowing the Pilots to kick the ball out off the dribble-drive like they've been doing.

It's a fact that league play brings a whole different level of scouting and preparedness to all the WCC teams, and it was obvious last night that Chase and Isaiah have been well scouted and were shutdown by UOP's superior defenders.

I commented going in that UOP's defense was very tough and that UP would have to really step-up if they were to beat the 129 o/u...they couldn't and didn't!

Should the coaches have changed their strategy at halftime after the Pilots scored just 25 points?  Perhaps, but I was left scratching my head trying to devise another scheme after watching the Tigers dominate on defense.  The only thing I could think of was to drive, drive, drive and continue to draw fouls, and then convert 85% of the free-throws.  They did go to the line 29 times, and if they'd hit 85% and converted the front-end of just 5 more one and ones it would have resulted in close to another 10 points...enough to make the game close down the stretch when UOP was simply playing keep-away and forcing UP to foul.

Unlike the loss to Jackson State, sometimes you're just beaten by a better team...that's what happened last night.