2023-24 Around the WCC and the NCAA

PU had 5 players in double figures, and got 16 points off the bench, to beat LMU 72-63. I think this means the Pilots are not going to get any help finishing 7th or better, and will probably need to win 3 of the last 5 games to avoid the 8-9 game.

Winless UOP led USD early and played them close all the way, but USD got their 5th conference win, 2 more than LMU, PU and UP.

up7587 wrote:PU had 5 players in double figures, and got 16 points off the bench, to beat LMU 72-63.  I think this means the Pilots are not going to get any help finishing 7th or better, and will probably need to win 3 of the last 5 games to avoid the 8-9 game.

I think the winner of Pilots/Pepperdine gets 7th.

A win there puts UP at 4 wins with the tiebreak over Pepperdine.

Pepperdine would beat Pacific to get up to 4, but then would have to beat USF away or SMC home or away to come up with the 5th. Tall order.

SCU went to USF and had a 19-0 run in the first half after being tied 14-all. They lead by 10 at half, and still led by 8 with 3 minutes to go. Up 2 with 12 seconds to go, SCU turned it over on a USF steal, and fouled. USF made the first FT, but missed the second. USF got the offensive rebound, missed, got another offensive rebound, and SCU fouled with 1 second left. USF made both FTs to take a 1 point lead, their first lead since 12:38 of the first half, and got the win. USF moves to 9-2 in WCC play, 1/2 game ahead of GU. SCU fans are crying about missing 7 of their 20 FTs and letting one get away.

Dean Murdoch wrote:

up7587 wrote:And only a 16% chance of attaining the #7 seed and avoiding the Thursday play-in game, which is at 2:30pm, before the few fans even get to LV.

https://bboilercbb.github.io/conferences/WCC/index.html

Up to 40% chance of getting the 7 seed!

Chances to avoid the play-in game have plummeted. 6% chance of 6th seed, 6% chance of 7th seed, and 88% chance of 8th.

GU up next.

SMC lost their F Jefferson to injury recently, and played USF tonight in Moraga. The Dons led by 4 late in the 2nd half, but SMC closed strong and won 70-66.

DoubleDipper wrote:Pilots picked to finish 6th and Tyler Robertson selected to the All-WCC Preseason Team.

https://portlandpilots.com/news/2023/10/12/mens-basketball-robertson-garners-preseason-all-wcc-recognition.aspx

2023-24 WCC Men's Basketball Preseason Coaches Poll
Team (first-place votes) points

1. Saint Mary's – (5) 61
2. Gonzaga – (4) 60
3. San Francisco - 45
4. LMU - 42
5. Santa Clara - 41
6. Portland - 27
7. Pepperdine - 22
8. Pacific - 16
9. San Diego - 10

As the season nears the end, let's look at the preseason predictions. Top three right on. LMU has struggled, currently 7th, so -3. SCU is 4th, +1. Pilots are 8th, -2. PU is +1. UOP is -1. And USD is 5th, +4. Basically, USD is the surprise team better than thought, and LMU and UP have underperformed.

Former Pilots updated news:
Moses Wood has played all 26 games for UW, averaging 32.7 minutes with 11.8 points and 4.6 rebounds. He's taken the most 3P shots for UW, hitting 38.2%. UW is in 10th place in the Pac-12 at 6-9, and 14-12 overall.
Mike Meadows has played 17 games for St. Louis, last on 01/30. Injured? He's averaged 25 minutes and scored 5.7 points per game when he 's played.
Chika Nduka has played every game for Montana St, averaging 15 minutes and scoring 3.8 points with 1.7 rebounds.
Alden Applewhite has played in 17 games for Murray St., averaging 4.9 ppg and 2.7 rpg.  He missed the first 10 games, and played in all since 12/18, so maybe a delayed transfer eligibilty approval?
Wyall Lowell at Chaminade has appeared in 22 of 27 games, starting 15. He's averaged 20.9 minutes, 7.3 points, and 3.4 rebounds.
Jarrett Bryant has played in all 24 games at Westmont, starting in 20 and averaging 29.0 minutes, 10.1 points and 4.5 rebounds.

And Kristian Sjolund moved from Beyreuth in Germany to Karhubasket in Finland in January. He's averaging around 17 mpg, 8 ppg and 3 rpg.

up7587 wrote:Chances to avoid the play-in game have plummeted. 6% chance of 6th seed, 6% chance of 7th seed, and 88% chance of 8th.

And with it, my chances of going to Vegas. Would have considered making it work if the Pilots were 6th or 7th, but with the 8/9 game moving up to 2:30 there's no way I could make it there on time without leaving on Wednesday.

So that would be an entire week in Vegas if I wanted to get there early enough to watch the Pilots and stick around to the end. I am really hoping they can find a way to cut the tournament to 4 days from 6 next year when the new bracket structure comes in along with WSU/OSU.

up7587 wrote:Former Pilots updated news:
Moses Wood has played all 26 games for UW, averaging 32.7 minutes with 11.8 points and 4.6 rebounds. He's taken the most 3P shots for UW, hitting 38.2%. UW is in 10th place in the Pac-12 at 6-9, and 14-12 overall.
Mike Meadows has played 17 games for St. Louis, last on 01/30. Injured? He's averaged 25 minutes and scored 5.7 points per game when he 's played.
Chika Nduka has played every game for Montana St, averaging 15 minutes and scoring 3.8 points with 1.7 rebounds.
Alden Applewhite has played in 17 games for Murray St., averaging 4.9 ppg and 2.7 rpg.  He missed the first 10 games, and played in all since 12/18, so maybe a delayed transfer eligibilty approval?
Wyall Lowell at Chaminade has appeared in 22 of 27 games, starting 15. He's averaged 20.9 minutes, 7.3 points, and 3.4 rebounds.
Jarrett Bryant has played in all 24 games at Westmont, starting in 20 and averaging 29.0 minutes, 10.1 points and 4.5 rebounds.

My son, as a redshirt sophomore, is having a strong season down at Westmont College, and owes a lot of his success to his experiences at UP.

The Pilots' last two opponents this season played each other tonight, and it was a rock fight type of game. LMU and SCU combined to shoot 7 of 34 from 3P range and 9-21c on FTs. LMU led at the half 32-28. LMU still led 39-38 with 11 minutes to go. But they are down to six scholarship players, with their best player Dominick Harris, Keli Leaupepe, and others out. They ran out of gas and SCU finished with a 27-16 run to win 65-55. That's 25.5 points under Vegas' prediction.

The Pilots needed that result to stay alive for 7th place. LMU plays at UOP Saturday and hosts USD next Thursday before coming to Chiles to finish the season. LMU is 3-10, Pilots are 3-11.

Per https://bboilercbb.github.io/conferences/WCC/index.html, with 2 games left in conference play, GU has a 65% chance of getting 2nd place, and USF has a 35% chance. GU visits USF on Thursday, for a late (8:00pm PST) game on ESPN2.

SCU and GU/USF are locked into the 3rd and 4th place seeds. USD is almost a lock (99.4%) for 5th place. 6th place is up in the air, with LMU (65.8%), PU (27.5%) and Pliots (6.1%) still in contention. LMU or PU will almost assuredly get the 7th seed (99.4%), and UP will most likely be 8th (93.3%). UOP is locked into 9th.

Pilots host SCU and LMU, and need to win both and hope other results fall their way to sneak into a Friday first game in Vegas.

In the 02/29 games, GU went to half with a 1 point lead, and are blowing USF out in the 2nd half by 22. SMC has no problem with PU, up 23 at half. And LMU blew out USD in the 2nd half 60-30, winning by 34. These results will lock GU into 2nd, USF 3rd, SCU 4th. Not a lot to play for on Saturday at the top of the league.

Well according to the site Deaner linked:

Dean Murdoch wrote:
https://bboilercbb.github.io/conferences/WCC/index.html

If Pilots lose to LMU, they get 8th place and play UOP on Thursday, LMU gets 6th and PU gets 7th.  The winner of UP-UOP gets USD on Friday.

If Pilots beat LMU, they get 6th place.  LMU gets 7th, and PU gets 8th and plays UOP on Thursday.  Pilots would open tournament play against LMU on Friday.

Official bracket released. Go Pilots.

https://wccsports.com/news/2024/2/23/seedings-announced-for-cu1-wcc-mens-basketball-tournament.aspx

Dean Murdoch wrote:Official bracket released. Go Pilots.

https://wccsports.com/news/2024/2/23/seedings-announced-for-cu1-wcc-mens-basketball-tournament.aspx

wccsports.com wrote:Portland, LMU and Pepperdine each finished the regular season with a Conference record of 5-11. and tied for sixth in the standings. The seed order for those three teams was determined through the WCC's tiebreaker process. Portland recorded a victory over No. 4 seed Santa Clara, while LMU and Pepperdine finished 0-2 against the Broncos, resulting in the Pilots securing the No. 6 seed. The final WCC tiebreaker rule, the NCAA NET rankings, was used to determine LMU’s and Pepperdine’s seeds, with LMU earning the No. 7 seed with a higher NET ranking than Pepperdine.  

LMU has had a high NET (and KenPom) ranking all season, and been the #5 ranked WCC team most of the season.  They are 0-6 against Quad 1 teams (same as UP).  They are 1-3 in Quad 2 games (UP is 0-4). They are 0-6 in Quad 3 games (UP is 2-2).  However, where UP is 7-8 in Quad 4 games, LMU is 10-3.  That dominance in Q4 games plus a Q2 win for the overall 11-18 record in NCAA games gives them a NET of #187.  Meanwhile, UP is overall 9-20 in NCAA games and is #305.

I recall that back in 2016 when UP was looking for a new head coach, Kyle Smith's name was mentioned. The coach from Columbia was well regarded, and he went to USF. (The coach UP hired is another story.) After three seasons where he had good teams but could not break into the top level of WCC teams, he left for Washington St. He now has WSU 1/2 game behind Arizona for 1st place in the dissolving Pac-12, and holds the tiebreaker with two wins over the Wildcats. A win against UW in Pullman on Thursday clinches 1st place.

Will Smith stay in Pullman to play in the WCC again? Or will he take a Power 2 job?

U. Washington spoiled WSU's opportunity to claim first place in the Pac-12, going to Pullman and beating the Cougs 74-68. But that win wasn't enough to save the coach's job.

@PeteThamel wrote:Sources: Washington has informed coach Mike Hopkins he will not return next season. He will coach in the Pac-12 Tournament and any postseason in 2024 but will not return for the 2024-25. He had one year left on his deal and they buyout in his contract is nearly $3.1 million.

Moses had a decent season for UW, playing in all 31 games, averaging 32.5 min/game, 11.7ppg and 4.5 rpg. Not good enough to save Hopkins' job, however. They were 17-14 overall, 9-11 in conference play.

Legan's old school Eastern Washington got knocked out of the Big Sky tournament as the #1 seed in their first game for the second consecutive year. Last year they got knocked out by the #9 seed, this year it was the #10 seed (a first for the tournament).

Some people have questioned Legans taking the Portland job after EWU's recent success from his successor David Riley after he left, but Legans has a 3-3/.500 WCC tournament record, which technically is still better than Riley's 1-3/.250 Big Sky tournament record. (Granted all 3 Portland wins were in the 1st or 2nd round, but both teams have yet to win a conference tournament quarterfinals match also.)

By comparison, Coach Legan's 3-3 tourney record in three years is better than Porter's record. TP won his first tourney game, and lost the next 5 tourney games, going 0-1 his last four years. That only tourney win in 2017 was a shocker as the Pilots had lost 16 straight WCC games going into the tournament.

Eric Reveno won 3 tourney games his last seven years, which includes the two years of 20+ win seasons. It is not exactly apples-to-apples because the conference had not gone to the Gonzaga-required double bye to the semi-finals for the top two seeds until the 2019 tourney, Porter's third year. So a team could go in as a lower seed and face a top team early in the tourney. In 2016, UP as the 7th seed missed the #8-#9 play-in game but played #2 seed GU in the quarterfinals. Reveno's last tourney win in 2015 was as the #6 seed beating #3 SMC, before losing to #2 BYU in the semis.

Winning a tourney game is fun for the fans who make the trek, especially if it's not a play-in game. Lots of celebrating after the win and lots of people at the pre-game social on Saturday. Hope to be there next year.

up7587 wrote:
Mike Meadows has played 17 games for St. Louis, last on 01/30. Injured? He's averaged 25 minutes and scored 5.7 points per game when he 's played.
Chika Nduka has played every game for Montana St, averaging 15 minutes and scoring 3.8 points with 1.7 rebounds.
Alden Applewhite has played in 17 games for Murray St., averaging 4.9 ppg and 2.7 rpg.  He missed the first 10 games, and played in all since 12/18, so maybe a delayed transfer eligibilty approval?

St. Louis' head coach was let go.
Chika is going dancing.
Murray State was eliminated in their first game of their conference tournament.

Sound Voltex wrote:
Chika is going dancing.

#5 seed Montana St. (14-17 on the season, 9-9 in Big Sky) beat #4 Weber St., then #10 Sac. St. (who upset EWU), before beating instate rival #3 Montana for the tournament championship. Chika suffered a foot injury on 02/29 and has not played since.

Sound Voltex wrote:Chika is going dancing.

I had heard from sources that Chika has a high angle sprain that will likely keep him from dancing unless it's in a boot.  

Remember back to Nov. 6th?  Pilots beat Long Beach State to open the season.  LBSU went 8-4 in non-conference, and 10-10 in the Big West Conference.  They had the 4th seed in their tournament (would have been #5, but UCSD was not eligible).  At the end of the regular season, they fired former Gonzaga coach Dan Monson but let him coach the tournament.  The Beach ran the table and won an automatic qualifier to the NCAA tournament.

Another non-conference opponent, Nevada, won the Mountain West tournament. They were the #2 seed.