WCC League Play Begins

With the preseason virtually over, and WCC play about to begin, let’s review where we stand in comparison to our WCC opponents according to Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin. Pomeroy’s rating is first, followed by Sagarin’s in ( ). The records show all games; D-1 games are in ( ). At the end of each team recap, I’ve included the team’s strength of schedule (SOS) out of 344 teams.

#20 (28) BYU (10-3) (9-3) Two losses were to very good teams, #1 Wisconsin and #10 Baylor. They beat UP opponents Nevada, Utah, and UCSB. SOS: #161

#26 (19) St. Mary’s (11-2) (9-2) They also lost to #10 Baylor, but beat a strong #47 Northern Iowa team. SOS: #260

#28 (41) Gonzaga (9-2) (9-2) Notable loss to #13 Michigan State at home, but they beat WSU, Notre Dame, and Arizona. SOS: #79

#161 (165) USF (9-4) (7-4) Beat Montana in Missoula, but lost their final preseason game at #211 Holy Cross. SOS: #298

#191 (195) Santa Clara (7-4) (5-4) Very strong wins over #27 New Mexico and #60 Villanova, but an inexplicable loss at #319 Houston Baptist in their final tune-up dropped them down a few spots. SOS: #168

#204 (196) LMU (6-6) (5-6) Very good wins at #78 UCLA and at home over #15 St. Louis were marred by their home loss to #236 North Texas. SOS: #169

#226 (205) Pepperdine (6-5) (5-5) They won or lost games they should have won or lost except for a home loss to #303 Cal State Northridge. SOS: #285

#228 (250) UP (3-10) (2-10) Two good wins at the start of the season over #144 Florida Atlantic and #76 Georgia State are now a distant memory after 10 straight losses to D-1 teams. The Pilots still boast the #7 SOS out of 344 teams. Rev was quoted to have said, “The schedule kind of got out of control.”

#265 (266) San Diego (5-7) (3-7) No notable wins or losses; they did lose to UP opponents Montana and UCSB, but almost upset UCSB at home. SOS: #211

Okay, PN regulars, what do you think will be the seeding in Las Vegas? Who will be #1, and where will the Pilots finish, and with what record?

Whew! I wasn´t aware of BYU´s ranking, but, their home record has been pretty astounding in recent years regardless of which players have been on the court. I hope that we can improve enough to have the potential to be the giant killers that I thought we could be coming into the season. If we can cut down the turnovers and improve our interior defense with Barker´s return, I think we could be an improved team. Right now, those are two very big ifs though...

I don't really care about how many wins or where they finish anymore. I'm not going into games expecting anything so I don't get down if they lose. Some wins would be nice but I see this season as getting ready for next season.

PurplePrideTrumpet wrote:I don't really care about how many wins or where they finish anymore. I'm not going into games expecting anything so I don't get down if they lose. Some wins would be nice but I see this season as getting ready for next season.

I disagree. The season begins tomorrow @ Gonzaga. We've had the 7th toughest schedule in the country and Riley's injury hasn't helped either. The WCC definitely appears to be up and I don't expect us to dominate Gonzaga tomorrow (though Sacre's hand injury could certainly help us contend). However, I think we're going to hold our own in conference play.

I like our chances to win 5 home games this year and we could easily pick up some wins on the road. I think we have the potential to finish at or above 8-8 in conference. The rest of the teams in the conference aren't all that imposing. After #28 Gonzaga, KenPom's rankings jump to #161 USF. We were recently ranked as high as the low 100's, right? We really need Riley to come back and have a presence at both ends of the court and, of course, it would be nice to see All-WCC Nem show up again.

We haven't been playing out of our minds and losing; that would be discouraging. We're limping along with 2 upperclassmen seeing over 10 minutes a game, one of whom is averaging 4 fewer points per game and shooting 13% less from 3-point range than he was last year, an injured center and 11 underclassmen. We have upside. I think things will come together for the Pilots. Starting at Gonzaga isn't great but at least fewer students will be there. Besides, after Rupp Arena, we should be used to it.

ShipstadPilot11 wrote:I like our chances to win 5 home games this year and we could easily pick up some wins on the road.

Yea, my head says 4 wins, but my heart hopes for 7 wins: USD x 2; PU x 2; USF; LMU; and SCU. I strongly believe we are playing for #5 in the conference, but good things have to happen (Nem, Riley, etc.), and our opponents have to overlook us a bit. First test for that theory is tomorrow against Gonzaga; any chance the Zags will overlook us and be thinking about Xavier in Cincinnati on Saturday?

I predict we'll win a couple of games we aren't supposed to win, but can we keep from losing the games we should win (ie. Montana/Utah)?

DoubleDipper wrote:. . . our opponents have to overlook us a bit. First test for that theory is tomorrow against Gonzaga; any chance the Zags will overlook us and be thinking about Xavier in Cincinnati on Saturday?

I would not place any money on that proposition. Would love to see it, but, no, not expecting it.

Wanna see a really GOOD game tonight? #20 BYU (11-3) v. #29 St. Mary's (11-2) tonight on ESPN2 should be REALLY good!

DoubleDipper wrote:Wanna see a really GOOD game tonight? #20 BYU (11-3) v. #29 St. Mary's (11-2) tonight on ESPN2 should be REALLY good!

At 8pm. This is only BYU's third road game. THIRD!

DoubleDipper wrote:Wanna see a really GOOD game tonight? #20 BYU (11-3) v. #29 St. Mary's (11-2) tonight on ESPN2 should be REALLY good!

This game will go a long way, early on, to deciding the pecking order of the best 3 teams in the league (but I think it is GU & BYU, then SMC)... I look forward to watching! 8:00pm PST tip. My prediction: BYU by 9.

PilotNut wrote: My prediction: BYU by 9.

The oddsmakers are picking SMC by 4 over BYU with SMC having a 62% chance of winning.

As both team have an affinity for shooting the 3-ball, it may come down to which team has the stronger inside presence when the bombers miss their target.

Ps; I read that the Sacramento Kings have two full time employs just to handle all the requests for Jimmer merchandise. Now who the heck would be spending all that money on Jimmer............oh, oh yea.....)

ShipstadPilot11 wrote: This is only BYU's third road game. THIRD!

And guess what, when St. Mary's travels to Malibu for Saturday's game, it will be their THIRD road game (their road record is 1-1 having lost to #74 Denver by 12 and winning over #102 Cal Poly by 5; they've also played two games at a neutral site and are 1-1 there too).

BYU gets a lot of its energy from their "home crowd “atmosphere wherever they play, including the Chiles Center. McKeon Pavilion only holds 3,500 fans, so if SMC restricted their ticket sales, the BYU fans may have to pay scalpers a few dollars more this Christmas season to make their boys feel at home.

An interesting side-note to tonight’s matchup: St. Mary’s student enrollment is 2,300 (880 males), whereas BYU’s is 28,000 (14,000 males). That ranks St. Mary’s 332/348 and BYU 13/348 in terms of size. I think those number alone speak to the terrific job St. Mary’s has done, and also the size of their “bandbox,” as my wife calls McKeon.

[quote="DoubleDipper"]

PilotNut wrote:Ps; I read that the Sacramento Kings have two full time employs just to handle all the requests for Jimmer merchandise. Now who the heck would be spending all that money on Jimmer............oh, oh yea.....)

Not to get political or anything but at the Blazer game there was a sighting of a "Romney/Fredette" sign.

Andy Katz of ESPN has a nice write-up on the conference. LINK

His comment on the Pilots?

Biggest disappointments: Portland coach Eric Reveno is one of the most solid individuals in the coaching business, but the Pilots have lost their core group of guys and are really struggling. They've lost 11 of their past 12 against a tough slate. …

p.s. read the comments, too. BYU fans will be a definite presence in the conference. Funniest bit: reading this comment from a Zags fan.

Well, it's clear that BYU fans are overconfident and annoying!

ROFLMAO

From Malibu: Pepperdine 77, USF 61, final

I just watched the SMC-BYU game. Tough hello to the conference for the new kids.

No "home crowd" on the road tonight, but apparently some BYU fans did get some SMC student seats; I just hope the students got good money for them. And the refs, jeez were they bad or what!?

PilotNut wrote:From Malibu: Pepperdine 77, USF 61, final

That's not good for us, we've got to stay ahead of Pepperdine and San Diego in the tournament seeding.

USF was outrebounded 41-29; they were 4/24 from 3-point (.167); and shot just .377 overall (23/61). Sounds too familiar.

DoubleDipper wrote:That's not good for us, we've got to stay ahead of Pepperdine and San Diego in the tournament seeding.

Agreed... it makes the SCU game all the more important.

DoubleDipper wrote: And the refs, jeez were they bad or what!?

I'm pretty confident we won't see a close call around the small arc called correctly this year

PurpleGeezer wrote:

DoubleDipper wrote: And the refs, jeez were they bad or what!?

I'm pretty confident we won't see a close call around the small arc called correctly this year

Hey, all you want from a ref is consistency. If they're all wrong, that's consistent.

LMU 77, USF 76, Final-OT, at USF.

USF starts conference play 0-2.

BYU 88 - USD 52
SMC 74 - Pepp 45

up7587 wrote:

PurpleGeezer wrote:

DoubleDipper wrote: And the refs, jeez were they bad or what!?

I'm pretty confident we won't see a close call around the small arc called correctly this year

Hey, all you want from a ref is consistency. If they're all wrong, that's consistent.

Interesting take. If they call it wrong all the time it's good?

PurpleGeezer wrote:

up7587 wrote:

PurpleGeezer wrote:

DoubleDipper wrote: And the refs, jeez were they bad or what!?

I'm pretty confident we won't see a close call around the small arc called correctly this year

Hey, all you want from a ref is consistency. If they're all wrong, that's consistent.

Interesting take. If they call it wrong all the time it's good?

No, it's not good, but the players know what to expect and can adjust their play accordingly.