WCC Play Begins - LMU Monday at 6/Pepperdine Wednesday at 6

KenPom.com is now predicting that UP will win only 5 more games the rest of the season....and one of those is tomorrow night against LMU....by 3 points.  (The other four predicted wins are all at home, against USD, USF, SCU, and Pacific.

At the conclusion of preseason play:
UP (6-7) # 222
LMU (7-4) # 195
PU (7-4) #106

All four of LMU's losses have been on the road: UC-Irvine, Oregon St., Colorado St., and Boise St.
LMU's wins are over Antelope Valley, CS-Fullerton (twice), SE Missouri St., CS-Northridge, UC-Riverside, and Jacksonville St. last Friday.

Coming into Monday night's game against Gonzaga, Pepperdine has won five in a row, and six of their wins in preseason have been against teams that are ranked much higher than UP according to Pomeroy.

It's pretty obvious the Pilots have a steep hill to climb between now and Las Vegas in March.....can the possible return of Jason Todd and the familiarity of the rims and shooting background in the Chiles Center get UP off to a fast start.....let's hope so.

Current win totals as projected by KenPom (this site really is worth the $20) - GU 15, SMC 14, BYU 12, PEP 11, LMU 8, UP 7, PAC 7, SCU 6, USF 6, USD 5.

There appears to be a divide between the top four and the rest of the WCC. As pretty much anyone could have told you heading into this year!

This is a very different LMU roster than last year... there are 7 new faces and 2 returning starters.  Gone from last year are: Evan Payne (transfer), Connor Jean (transfer), Simon Krajcovic (transfer), Casey Norris (transfer), Patson Siame (transfer), Devin Wyatt (transfer), Godwin Okonji (graduation), Chase Flint (graduation) and Ayodeji Egbeyemi (graduation).

LMU has been a pleasant surprise so far this year, giving CSU a battle in Ft. Collins, and losing by only 1 @ BSU... not to mention beating Fullerton twice.  LMU was also hanging around with Oregon State in Corvallis for most of the game.

LMU was a big question mark coming into the season, but they have proven to be much improved.  The Pilots have been shaky at best, so we will need to hit shots and hope that Jason Todd is back in the lineup!

Remember, both games are at 6PM...

Both games are on TV (Monday on ROOT and Wednesday on ESPNU)

The pregame pasta both nights will begin at 5PM and will be served in the Pilot House....not in the Chiles Center.

For those who normally gather in the Pilot Club VIP area before the game, that area will be in normal operation on Monday, but on Wednesday it will be in the Pilot House.  

Both nights the halftime Pilot Club areas will ops normal....in the Chiles Center.

Did I leave anything out?

Terry Cahill wrote:Current win totals as projected by KenPom (this site really is worth the $20) - GU 15, SMC 14, BYU 12, PEP 11, LMU 8, UP 7, PAC 7, SCU 6, USF 6, USD 5.

Agree, it is worth the $, but I've never had one of his variables explained to me:

He predicts UP will be 7-11 in the WCC, but in his list of head-to-head matchups he indicates UP will win only 5......and it's generally the same for each team.  

LMU will finish 8-10, but only win 5 matchups.
PU will finish 13-5, but win 11 matchups.
GU is predicted to finish 15-3, but is predicted to win 17 WCC matchups......and so on.

I'm guessing that most of the matchups are just too unpredictable, and the envisoned final record has that lack of predictability built into it.

Cumulative win probability. While the Pilots may only have a greater than 50% chance of winning in five of 18 WCC games, the sum of all the probabilities would be between 650% and 749% - hence the 7-11 projected record.

Terry Cahill wrote:Cumulative win probability. While the Pilots may only have a greater than 50% chance of winning in five of 18 WCC games, the sum of all the probabilities would be between 650% and 749% - hence the 7-11 projected record.

I anticipate a lot of close games. I do think we're getting better at key spots. We must show up for every competition. Need to be tough. Can't remember the game, but I was watching online as per usual (I haven't been to a freaking game yet??!!) and it was close and within the last 5 minutes. One of the posts, I think Gabe or Collin, fouled a guy to the floor, and was offering a hand to help him up when Alec stuck his hand in his chest and swiftly pushed him away. Good foul. Let the dude get up himself and let's play ball! Not here to make friends.

It was just a flash on the screen but very illustrative of mindset. We'll need that instinct throughout WCC play.

I'm finally back in Portland for Christmas and I would like to check out the new Pilot House. Will it be open to everyone for both games or does that function before the Pepperdine game mean that you have to be a Pilot Club member to eat there? I just really enjoy the idea of getting a meal and beer on campus before the game.

Terry Cahill wrote:Cumulative win probability. While the Pilots may only have a greater than 50% chance of winning in five of 18 WCC games, the sum of all the probabilities would be between 650% and 749% - hence the 7-11 projected record.

A third straight 7-11 league record would, I presume, end Reveno's tenure on the Bluff. That would put his five-year WCC winning percentage at 32.5% (28-58), and his overall ten-year league record at under 40%, with only two seasons with winning records, and no sign that the program is improving (in terms of on-court performance). I don't think it is an overstatement to say that the next two months will determine the future of the UP basketball program.

'06-'07: 4-10
'07-'08: 3-11
'08-'09: 9-5
'09-'10: 10-4
'10-'11: 7-7
TOTAL: 33-37 (47.1%)
__________

'11-'12: 3-13
'12-'13: 4-12
'13-'14: 7-11
'14-'15: 7-11
'15-'16: 7-11 (projected)
TOTAL: 28-58 (32.5%)

GRAND TOTAL: 61-95 (39.1%)

UGAPilot wrote:I'm finally back in Portland for Christmas and I would like to check out the new Pilot House. Will it be open to everyone for both games or does that function before the Pepperdine game mean that you have to be a Pilot Club member to eat there? I just really enjoy the idea of getting a meal and beer on campus before the game.

Welcome home...

The Pilot House functions on both nights are open to Pilot Club and non-Pilot Club members alike!

You'll be able to recognize the PilotNation bunch.....they're the good looking ones.  

UGAPilot wrote:I'm finally back in Portland for Christmas and I would like to check out the new Pilot House. Will it be open to everyone for both games or does that function before the Pepperdine game mean that you have to be a Pilot Club member to eat there? I just really enjoy the idea of getting a meal and beer on campus before the game.

I am sure you can eat there.  They sell individual dinners all the time. Look for the PilotNation t-shirts!

up7587 wrote:I am sure you can eat there.  They sell individual dinners all the time. Look for the PilotNation t-shirts!

You are correct, we can eat there on Monday and Wednesday night, but the Pilot House is closed, except for private functions, until January 10th, just in time to watch the NCAA National Football Championship on January 11th at 5:30.

Don't want to hijack the thread but I had a quick question that I'm sure has been answered numerous times but what's up with Chier Maker? I see he is still on the roster. I guess what I'm asking is will he play this year or is he sitting out, red shirting, hurt, something else? Also I know he came with some hype has anyone seen him practice and what do you think? Does he have a ways to go or will he make an immediate impact when he hits the court?

I know it's still real early but I like the new group of guys on the team the sophomores and freshmen. I think there is some potential there, more than there has been in the recent past. As far as LMU with almost all the games being on TV and or archived on the internet I've been able to see a bunch of WCC games the last few years and LMU is much better this year than they have been the last couple seasons and as the season wears on I imagine they will continue to improve. It's good the Pilots are getting them early should be an interesting game and a good indicator of how league will go for the Pilots. Thanks in advance for any replies.

run aground wrote:Don't want to hijack the thread but I had a quick question that I'm sure has been answered numerous times but what's up with Chier Maker? I see he is still on the roster. I guess what I'm asking is will he play this year or is he sitting out, red shirting, hurt, something else? Also I know he came with some hype has anyone seen him practice and what do you think? Does he have a ways to go or will he make an immediate impact when he hits the court?

Someone closer to the team step in if they know more...but as I understand it, Chier (Chiir?) is definitely a redshirt this year but can possibly start practicing with the team after fall semester. Which I suppose could be any day now - will be interesting to hear if he indeed starts suiting up for practice.

I am going to take a positive approach going into conference play.  We are 5 points away from having a 9-4 record.  The improvement of the team as a whole is starting to show.  We had 5 new scholarship players to integrate into the lineup along with 3 sophomores where only one played significant minutes last year (and he has been out of the lineup the last 3 games).  

Both LMU & Pepperdine have 8 Jr's and Sr's on their rosters.  These 2 games will give us a good idea where this team will be going in conference play.  

I am looking forward to these games starting us off with 6 home wins and 3 road wins in conference play for a 9-9 record.

I appreciate the responses. I will definitely be at the Pepperdine game and am looking forward to my first live Pilots game in over a year now. Go Pilots!

Also, here is two cents from me... I dislike the WYOUP thing. While I think that "write your own" is cool and all, WYO is definitely Wyoming's thing.

Two hours until the start of the "second season." What if the Pilots put it all together tonight? They'll come out firing on all cylinders. Pressley will hit a three on the opening possession. Wintering will get a steal at the top of the key on the other end, and hit Rashad Jackson for a breakaway dunk. The Pilots won't look back. Barreno will play a season-high in minutes and record his first career double-double. Jarrel Marshall will finish with 20 points.

Meanwhile, Pepperdine will expose Gonzaga's weaknesses tonight up in Spokane and come away with a convincing victory -- setting up a showdown in Chiles on Wednesday night.

Go Pilots!

UGAPilot wrote:

Also, here is two cents from me... I dislike the WYOUP thing. While I think that "write your own" is cool and all, WYO is definitely Wyoming's thing.

https://www.fema.gov/write-your-own-wyo-program

Did...did the Pilots just go on a 23-0 run? Or am I seeing things?

My goodness, I picked a bad night to have to work late!

The Pilots are dominating in every aspect... so much for a Far West Classic hangover!

This is great, and I have to think that having Todd back makes a big difference. Go Pilots!

Believe it!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm just going to leave this here. While we were hot from 3, we were also hot from the free throw line!  

That went pretty well.

Terry Cahill wrote:Did...did the Pilots just go on a 23-0 run? Or am I seeing things?

To be fair, except for 2 free throws, it was more like 31 points. They were cold, cold cold.

Go Pilots.

Actually, it seemed it turned around when Rev made a line change sub, 4 new guys.  They came in with a lot of energy, and it sparked the whole team.  Went from down 9 - 17, to up 34 - 19, including that 23 straight run until LMU finally got a couple FTs.