Do I Change My Flight Now?

I haven't missed a UP tournament game since the tournament moved to Vegas and I'm not going to start now. I'm a little concerned about my Thursday flight. We aren't going to be favored in any more games, and will need to win at least one and maybe two more to avoid the 8th spot.

So what does PN think? Do I keep my flight for now and have a little faith that we can win a couple more games, or do I change the flight now to make sure I get there in time?

blacksheep wrote:So what does PN think? Do I keep my flight for now and have a little faith that we can win a couple more games, or do I change the flight now to make sure I get there in time?

It would appear you've only given yourself two options -- do what I've done, and give yourself a third:

I made my flight reservations for Wednesday morning, AND still have faith we can avoid 8/9th place. By going early you avoid the rush, get your pick of the hotel rooms, scout the men's and women's 8/9 teams, get in extra golf, and get a day's head start on finding the best beer in town.

And blacksheep, if you are at LAS around noon, I'll give you a ride to the hotel.

I won't be able to make Vegas this year (or the GU game this week) due to work. Really bummed, I've had a lot of fun the last few years. Extra cowbell is planned for 2012-2013 season.

I am on the last flight out Wednesday evening, so I am having the same thoughts myself. Wins @SCU and @Pepp would almost assure us of #7 or better, as that would be 4+ wins and we would hold tie breakers... but we have been plain awful on the road.

After missing the 1st half of our only game last year, I am a tad anxious about this...

I guess I can always try to fly stand-by for an earlier flight on the 29th... the problem is, getting to the Orleans in time for a 6pm tip off means catching the 1pm flight, so another day off from work...

Double Dipper is spot on. You can continue to worry about it for the next month or so or you can put your mind at ease and enjoy the extra day, its not like there isnt anything to do in Vegas!
Change the flight, put your mind to rest and book a round of golf at Summerlin.

I'm keeping the faith and flying out late Wednesday.

I'm flying in Wednesday morning.

I'm getting a bit nervous.

Lots of basketball left to play.

For a twist, when should I fly home? Tuesday? Sunday? Earlier?

up7587 wrote:For a twist, when should I fly home? Tuesday? Sunday? Earlier?

My plan is, if our Pilots lose before the championship, to go to Peoria and watch some spring training ball on Sunday/Monday!!

up7587 wrote:For a twist, when should I fly home? Tuesday? Sunday? Earlier?

Probably when you run out of money.

I, on the other hand, plan to get rich off the BYU/GU fans who want my tickets once the Pilots are done, and before I head home.

up7587 wrote:For a twist, when should I fly home? Tuesday? Sunday? Earlier?

I would think you would just stay an extra week and watch the NSACAR race.

blacksheep wrote: I would think you would just stay an extra week and watch the NSACAR race.

The Not Staying Around Car Race?

But what about you??? You started this thread by asking the PN what you should do -- what's your decision?

I haven't changed my flight yet. I figure it will cost about $50 to change it since prices have gone up since I purchased my ticket. Plus whatever another night in Vegas costs.

I'm going to hold out a couple more weeks to see if we can get another win.

blacksheep wrote:I'm going to hold out a couple more weeks to see if we can get another win.

Tick, tock!

It's not looking good for avoiding the play-in game. Pepperdine beat Santa Clara @ Santa Clara and it now tied with us. It makes our game with Pepperdine a must win.

This team is trending up. Losing vs. USF, vs. GU and @ LMU by a combined 16 points is way better than I would have anticipated at the beginning of the year or the beginning of conference play. I think we can come up with a few more wins in the next month!

Well, we've beaten SCU once alreay this year, and Thursday is Groundhog's Day.......................

Agreed that we are trending upward, and a win vs. LMU would have been huge in this regard... but that is water under the bridge now.

As I see it, for us to avoid the 8/9 game, we need to win @SCU & @Pepp... that alone would give us 4 wins, and tie breakers over both of them via a season sweep. That would mean that either Pepp or SCU would need 5 wins to surpass us. A win for us @USD would mean that they would need 6 wins to move ahead.

Here are their remaining games:
SCU: Portland, @USD, @USF, @SMC, GU, BYU, Pepp, @LMU.
Pepp: @LMU, GU, USD, @BYU, Portland, @SCU.

Making the big assumption that we beat both of them on the road (a very big assumption since we have not won on the road yet), one of them would need to get to 5 wins to surpass us. SCU, at 0-8 currently, would then need to win 5 of their last 7 (after losing to us), and I dont see that happening.

Pepp is currently 2-8, and with a loss to us would need to win 3 of the other remaining games. If they were to win @SCU, I still dont see them winning 2 of the other 4 games (@LMU, GU, USD, @BYU).

The bottom line: If we win @SCU & @Pepp, we are looking good. Another W along the way and we are looking REALLY good, and could sneak into the #6 spot...

PilotNut wrote:and could sneak into the #6 spot...

That's the kind of optimism I like!

#stillhaven'tchangedmyflight

PilotNut wrote:and could sneak into the #6 spot...

What if we win out? A top four bye?

Nothing too exciting on tap in the WCC tomorrow. I guess LMU (9-3) at GU (9-2) in a matchup for 2nd place has to be the premier game, but most pundits see GU winning this by as much as 15.

In other action:

PU @ BYU; BYU favored by 20
USF @ USD; a tossup
SCU @ SMC; SMC favored by 24

I’ll leave it to others to figure out the tie-breaker ramifications, but for our Pilots to avoid the Wednesday night game in Las Vegas (it is close to certain the Pilots Women will play on Wednesday afternoon) they have got to beat PU in Malibu on 2/18.

The Pilots have four remaining games: @USD; @PU; SMC; and @BYU.

The Waves have three remaining league games (and a non-league tilt against Seattle U): @BYU; UP; and @ SCU.

The schedule appears to favor the Waves, and no matter how I twist the numbers, it would also appear an 8th place finish and a Wednesday night tournament game is inevitable unless the Pilots win in Malibu.

For a totally headache giving look at the “official” WCC Handbook rules on tiebreakers go to PilotNut’s thread from two years ago: https://www.pilotnation.net/t1924-official-wcc-basketball-tiebreakers.

Yep, I was hoping for win against LMU last night. I'm of the same mindset and think I might as well just change the flight.

If I change my flight now, that should help us a win at PU.

#stillhaven'tchangedmyflight

blacksheep wrote:Yep, I was hoping for an LMU win last night. I'm of the same mindset and think I might as well just change the flight.

I'm guessing you wrote this on your "smart" phone. How smart can a phone be if it wouldn't correct you by saying somehthing like, "I was hoping for a win against LMU last night."

DoubleDipper wrote:

blacksheep wrote:Yep, I was hoping for an LMU win last night. I'm of the same mindset and think I might as well just change the flight.

I'm guessing you wrote this on your "smart" phone. How smart can a phone be if it wouldn't correct you by saying somehthing like, "I was hoping for a win against LMU last night."

You need to remember that I went to a state school. Yes, you are correct, that is what I meant.

PS - you spelled something wrong

Pepperdine got hammered today at BYU, 86 - 48. Hope they are losing heart, because we have to beat them to win the 1st tie-breaker, head-to-head. We would lose the 2nd tie-breaker, as they have a win over USF. To top that we'd have to beat SMC or BYU, and those are very tough challenges.