The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Now I can't get the video feed to load. Anyone else?

Finally loaded. Go Pilots!

Finally loaded. Go Pilots!

With games being played each day throughout the week during the preseason, KenPom updates are happening on the fly, but here is a snapshot of the WCC schools this morning and their position changes since his computer’s preseason prognostications.

As you can see the biggest drops came from LMU and UP….LMU beat Pacifica at home, but then lost to (ancient) Larry Brown led SMU in Dallas Sunday night.

USF lost, but gained spots after their very strong showing against Stanford. GU gained the most ground in the WCC with blow-out wins over Southern Utah and West Virginia.

5 – GU (+9) beat S. Utah; beat West Virginia
49 – BYU (+1) beat Tenn. St.
50 – SMC (-3) beat Sonoma St.
136 – USD (+4) beat San Diego Christian
150 – SCU (+4) beat Simpson
173 – LMU (-18) beat Pacifica; lost to SMU
(191 – Pacific (+1) beat Chico St and Holy Names)
192 – USF (+5) lost to Stanford
204 – UP (-22) lost to Ohio
296 – PU (+3) lost to CS Northridge

Can you explain to me how beating San Diego Christian and Simpson are enough to allow USD and SCU to jump a few spots?

RipCityPilot wrote:Can you explain to me how beating San Diego Christian and Simpson are enough to allow USD and SCU to jump a few spots?

Probably more of a function of higher ranked teams dropping games and USD and SCU moving up to take their spots.

I don't have access to the old rankings but Old Dominion would likely be one of those teams, as they're #158 now and had pretty bad home losses to UTSA and Holy Cross. I'd imagine that those losses sent the poor Monarchs into a freefall in Pomeroy's rankings, and you'll probably find a few other examples as well.

DeanMurdoch wrote:

RipCityPilot wrote:Can you explain to me how beating San Diego Christian and Simpson are enough to allow USD and SCU to jump a few spots?

Probably more of a function of higher ranked teams dropping games and USD and SCU moving up to take their spots.

I don't have access to the old rankings but Old Dominion would likely be one of those teams, as they're #158 now and had pretty bad home losses to UTSA and Holy Cross. I'd imagine that those losses sent the poor Monarchs into a freefall in Pomeroy's rankings, and you'll probably find a few other examples as well.

Exactly!

Non D-1 wins are very neutral, but D-1 losses from schools with higher rankings, particularly in the top 150 or so, means that team will drop a little or a lot depending upon all the factors entered into the computer.

Well, the too close for comfort win over a team that is considered weak by the kenpom computers dropped the Pilots another 16 spots in the rankings.

Those in the "know" said Santa Clara would be very good this year....yikes, they've been VERY good!

These are the results from the last three nights, and the movement in the rankings:

6 – GU (-1) DNP
39 – SMC (+11) beat Utah St. away
46 – BYU (+3) beat Georgia St.
121 – SCU (+29) beat still ranked 36th St. Louis away
160 – USD (-24) beat Northern Kentucky; lost to Cal State Northridge
172 – LMU (+1) DNP
192 – USF (0) DNP
220 – UP (-16) beat Idaho St.
288 – PU (+eight) lost to a very good Cal team away

A win over Montana State on Sunday will likely push UP up a few rungs; the computer loves road wins!

UP Basketball: Even when we win, we lose.

After Pepperdine’s defeat of WSU in Malibu and UP’s loss to MSU in Bozeman, I was in disagreement with Ken Pomeroy’s computers, so I checked-in with our old friend Jeff Sagarin’s computers and see how they ranked the Pilots compared to the other 346 D-1 teams.

Jeff Sagarin
10 GU
49 SMC
50 BYU
130 SCU
145 LMU
197 USF
220 USD
251 PU
294 UP

Ken Pomeroy
10 GU
47 SMC
65 BYU
116 SCU
161 USD
173 LMU
199 USF
240 UP
280 PU


Except for USD and UP (and possibly PU), the two gentlemen appear to be pretty close in their assessment of WCC teams. (BTW, Pomeroy rates the WCC 11th, and Sagarin rates the WCC 12th in the nation out of 32 conferences.

I have to agree with Sagarin’s positioning of UP; they looked dreadful yesterday against MSU, and the Pilots' flow of play against ISU was about as disjointed as it gets.

Pomeroy projects a 71% probability of a win over PSU on Wednesday. I think anyone that's watched the last two games would say that's extremely generous.

Sagarin ranks PSU at 230 and UP at 294 which is probably more reasonable at this point.

It’s been 10 days since we’ve looked at KenPom’s ranking of the WCC teams; here’s the list through Sunday's games.….I’ve included each team’s rise or fall in those 10 days and the results of their games.

2 - GU (+4) beat South Dakota; beat Clemson; beat Oklahoma; beat Davidson

62 - BYU (-16) lost to #45 Florida St; lost to #21 Notre Dame; beat Texas San Antonio; beat Cal St. Northridge

67 - SMC (-28) beat Eastern Washington; beat Drexel; lost to Pacific; lost to Georgia Tech

105 - SCU (+16) beat South Carolina Upstate; beat Utah Valley; beat E. Washington

192 - USF (+56) beat American away; beat Columbia

173 - LMU (-1) beat Cal St. Bakersfield away; lost to Oral Roberts; beat Texas St; lost Alaska Anchorage away

183 - USD (-23) lost to Tulsa; beat Siena; lost to UCSB away; lost to Montana away

224 - UP (-4) lost to #287 Montana St. away; beat #280 Portland St; lost to #33 New Mexico away

250 PU (+38) beat Washington St; beat Houston Baptist away; beat Cal Irvine

(As a conference, KenPom ranks the WCC #10 out of 32 conferences.)

In comparison to KenPom, kere’s how Jeff Sagarin sees it (remember, there are 347 teams):

4 - GU (+6)
54 - BYU (-1)
69 - SMC (-13)
96 - SCU (-5)
127 - USF (+31)
150 - LMU (-6)
220 - PU (+19)
234 - USD (+10)
267 - UP (+12) (after the MSU game UP dropped to 294; they’ve moved +27 since then)

(Sagarin ranks the WCC #10 out of 32 conferences.)

It’s been another 10 days since we’ve looked at KenPom’s ranking of the WCC teams; here’s the list through yesterday’s games.….I’ve included each team’s rise or fall in those 10 days and the results of their games.

8 - GU (-6) beat Lewis & Clark St; beat Pacific; beat WSU away
59 - SMC (+eight) beat Cal Poly; beat Drake away
71 - BYU (-9) beat Montana; lost to Iowa St away
108 - USF (+84….that’s +140 spots in 3 weeks) beat Montana; beat St. Johns
124 - SCU (-19) lost to Utah St in OT; lost to UCSB in OT
178 - LMU (-5) lost to Long Beach St; beat Portland St; beat Northern Arizona away
184 - USD (-1) lost to S.F. Austin away; beat Southern Utah away
223 - PU (+27) beat Montana St away; lost to Utah Valley St in OT away; beat UC Riverside
225 - UP (-1) beat Lewis & Clark; lost to WSU away; lost to UNLV

UP now ranks #1 for the toughest schedule in the WCC….they moved up all 9 spots from 10 days ago

In comparison to KenPom, here’s how Jeff Sagarin sees it (remember, there are 347 teams):

7 - GU (-3)
55 - SMC (+14)
73 - BYU (-19)
103 - USF (+24)
123 - SCU (-27)
147 - LMU (+3)
207 - PU (+13)
214 - USD (+20)
269 - UP (-2)

Thanks for posting these, DD. I really appreciate it.

ShipstadPilot11 wrote:Thanks for posting these, DD. I really appreciate it.

I appreciate the thanks....I was just waiting for the winds to calm a little or the temperature to rise before heading to Heron Lakes to play mud ball....hey, it beats working for a living.

Oh, and sincere thanks to all working folks who are paying into my Social Security account allowing me to pay for my green fees.

DoubleDipper wrote:

ShipstadPilot11 wrote:Thanks for posting these, DD. I really appreciate it.

I appreciate the thanks....I was just waiting for the winds to calm a little or the temperature to rise before heading to Heron Lakes to play mud ball....hey, it beats working for a living.

Oh, and sincere thanks to all working folks who are paying into my Social Security account allowing me to pay for my green fees.

I wish I was at Heron right now! Which course are you playing?

It’s been over two weeks since we’ve looked at Ken Pomeroy’s ranking of the WCC teams; here’s the list through yesterday’s games.….I’ve included each team’s rise or fall in those two weeks (a plus (+) means rise towards the top) and the results of their games.

13 - GU (-5) lost to Illinois; beat Kansas State; beat Campbell
37 - SMC (+22) beat Jackson State; beat Pacific
71 - BYU (0) beat Utah; beat Weber State away; beat Eastern New Mexico
105 - SCU (+19) beat Pacific Union; beat San Jose State away; beat Pacific away; beat Cal Poly
140 - USF (-32) lost to Pacific away; lost to Nevada away; lost to Holy Cross
172 - LMU (+6) lost to Mississippi
181 - USD (+3) beat Tulane; beat Arizona Christian; lost to San Diego State away
225 - UP (+14) lost to Kentucky away; beat Portland Bible; beat CSU Bakersfield; beat North Florida
228 PU (-5) beat Hawaii away; lost to Central Michigan; beat Alabama State; lost to Tulane away


UP still ranks #1 for the toughest schedule in the WCC…...

In comparison to Pomeroy, here’s how Jeff Sagarin sees it….I gotta say, his computer modeling has put teams all over the chart this season compared to the relatively steady Pomeroy computers:

16 - GU (-9)
50 - SMC (+5)
68 - SCU (+55)
78 - BYU (-5)
144 - USF (-41)
160 - LMU (-13)
169 - PU (+38)
219 - USD (-5)
240 - UP (+29)

Both computer models depend at this point on where teams were initially seeded and how much each game affects the seeding.

Watching the two systems, my guess is that at the end of the season, Sagarin will tell you more about how teams did in the second half.

Conference play will be more important to him.

Preseason is over and WCC play begins tomorrow, but before it does, here’s Ken Pomeroy’s ranking of the WCC teams.

I’ve included the results of each team’s games and the rise or fall since the last report on December 21. (A plus (+) means rise towards the top and minus (-) means a drop).

14 - GU (-1) beat #28 Baylor; beat #18 Oklahoma State away
49 - SMC (-12) lost to #95 Northern Iowa away; beat Rhode Island, Yale, and Harvard
61 - BYU (+10) lost to #28 Baylor away; beat Northern Arizona and Virginia Tech
76 - SCU (+29) beat Alcorn St and Wagner; lost to #4 Duke away
136 - USF (+4) lost to #24 San Diego St; lost to #27 Mississippi; beat East Tennessee St. and Dominican
172 - LMU (-12) lost to #31 St. Louis away; beat Morgan St and CSU Bakersfield
190 - USD (-9) lost to Oregon St. and James Madison; beat Morgan St.
215 PU (+13) beat Fresno Pacific
226- UP (-1) lost to #29 Colorado St; beat Bradley; lost to Texas-Pan American

In comparison to Pomeroy, here’s how Jeff Sagarin sees it….

10 - GU (+6)
49 - SCU (+19) (+74 in December)
63 - BYU (+15)
67 - SMC (-17)
155 - USF (-11)
167 - PU (+12) (+40 in December)
176 - LMU (-16)
216 - USD (+3)
236 - UP (+4) (+33 in December)

The two systems are pretty similar, except for PU. Any idea what is different about the Waves?

up7587 wrote:The two systems are pretty similar, except for PU. Any idea what is different about the Waves?

You’ve got me. When I saw how PU had moved up based solely on a last minute one point win over a non D-1 opponent, Fresno Pacific, I wondered the same thing.

I’ve checked the teams PU has competed against to see if any have improved enough and make the computer like PU more than before….but that just hasn’t been the case. PU has played the weakest schedule in the WCC in the preseason.

Without knowing the criteria the computers are looking for, it’s difficult to pinpoint why PU has moved up so much the last 30 days. What is NOT difficult to pinpoint is their combined offensive and defensive numbers definitely put them ahead of UP on paper.

I bet one of the "bright young" PN writers will have a good answer!