2015-16 Preseason

DoubleDipper wrote:The CBS Sports’ predictions sound reasonable to me (even if I don’t agree with them saying, Rex Walters is one of the better coaches in the West).

Haha, my first thought when I read this was that Dipper wasn't going to like what they wrote about Walters.

pilotdad1 wrote:Pepperdine is all the medias WCC darling this year and should give St Marys a run for the one of the top 4 spots in the conference.

Do we have to concede a top four spot to St Mary's already? Losing Waldow would be a big enough hit...but they also lose Jackson, Simmons, Carter, and Bright. Five of their top six contributors, with Naar as the only one of that group returning. I know they expect Joe Rahon to be good, but they need a TON of guys to step up if they want to assume their usual lofty standing in a quality conference.

Terry Cahill wrote:They're slowly dying everywhere.

Sorry, still off topic, but I think this UP junior expressed how many of us feel about the loss of hard copy newspapers in general.....    http://www.upbeacon.com/2015/10/14/paper-please-student-wants-the-beacon-in-print/

Doesn't bother me.  I'm happy to read news on the internet.

Back on topic.  I also took note of the Rex Walters comment.  Sorry, but I can't see it.

Its a very interesting dynamic, this internet funnel of news versus traditional ink and print papers. I am 47 and in my youth I remember an important tradition was for my father to read the paper. The whole picture and memory of the recliner and my dad spending a few minutes to catch up on current events.
Today my mom reads and uses her Ipad which goes to show that even the 70 folks can even adapt. And I blend both, using the Ipad as well as I still get the paper delivered. Im torn, wishing that yet another tradition from my youth is not replaced with technology, but enjoying the flexibility of the internet. Maybe its possible to keep both, it would be a shame to lose newspapers.

Open scrimmage on Saturday at 10:30am. I can't make it. Can anyone go and provide a report?

https://twitter.com/CoachReveno/status/655131377411592192

Hmmm, I wish they would have publicized this a little sooner.

PilotNut wrote:Hmmm, I wish they would have publicized this a little sooner.

The Concordia Irvine game is just three weeks away, but there will be a few more scrimmages before now and then, including the wildly underreported "secret scrimmage," probably against OSU.

It was good to see Chier (#4) part of the gathering today for the team picture even though NCAA regulations don't allow him to practice with the team.....

NoPoNeighbor wrote:Open scrimmage on Saturday at 10:30am. I can't make it. Can anyone go and provide a report?

As one can imagine this early in the process, there is a lot of room for improvement in this year's version of the Pilots. But with that said, it's always difficult to know where a team stands until it faces another school.

The only negative I will report is the players were struggling to stay on the same page for much of the morning.....but on a positive note....progress was definitely made.

On PN we've been discussing a number of positions, including the "stretch 4" that wrv has described so well. Just from today's scrimmage, and discounting anything beyond the traditional lineup, Gabe Taylor is that guy!  

All three point guards played very well, including freshman Jazz Johnson and walk-on Xavier Hallinan.

Staying positive, transfer Ray Barreno showed very good potential, and it will be tough to redshirt freshman Colin Russell....the kid can really play!

It's impossible to pick a starting lineup at this point, but based upon today, it could easily include Alec, Bryce, Todd, Gabe, and Colin or Ray.

A couple of interested observers today were RS Chier Maker and 2016 Joseph Smoyer.  I spoke to Chier (not allowed to speak with Joseph until he's enrolled in classes) and he's in very good spirits and professes to be loving school.  I told him it was odd to see him wearing #4 in the team picture, and he agreed, vowing to get Phillip's #15 as soon as he graduates.....

DoubleDipper wrote:It's impossible to pick a starting lineup at this point, but based upon today, it could easily include Alec, Bryce, Todd, Gabe, and Colin or Ray.

Colin Russell was likely the recruit we knew the least about coming in, and it seems he was one of the standouts of the open scrimmage. We really have no clue when it comes to recruiting, should really probably just leave that up to the boys in charge.

Also interesting...I thought Jarrel would step right in and be Kevin Bailey-ish, but no mention of him here!

Appreciate the update, Dipper.

Terry Cahill wrote:Also interesting...I thought Jarrel would step right in and be Kevin Bailey-ish, but no mention of him here!

Jarrel is VERY Kevin Bailey-ish!! Based solely on the scrimmage, when he went one-on-one you'd swear KB was still on the court.  He'll definitely get lots of playing time....and score some KB type baskets and put up some KB type numbers.

The reason I didn't put him in my starting lineup was because the offense flowed quite a bit better with Todd and/or Gabe on the court and the defense was much tighter.....possibly because of their familiarity with the system.  

Offensively, one-on-one, Jarell will win 80% of the time.....not sure how he'll do on defense, but he's got some time to learn the defense.  His offensive skills are wonderful now....they just have to be melded into the scheme of things without taking away his creativity.

How's Hartwich looking, DD? You'd give Barreno or Russell the starting nod at center over Hartwich?

With the strength of the team clearly shifting to the perimeter this year, did you see any evidence in the scrimmage of a different offensive approach? Fewer attempts to get the ball into the post? More action to get perimeter shooters open?

NoPoNeighbor wrote:How's Hartwich looking, DD? You'd give Barreno or Russell the starting nod at center over Hartwich?

With the strength of the team clearly shifting to the perimeter this year, did you see any evidence in the scrimmage of a different offensive approach? Fewer attempts to get the ball into the post? More action to get perimeter shooters open?

Remember, this was only one inter-team scrimmage, but I think Phillip has gotten the word.....DUNK the ball!!  Like everyone, Phillip had some lapses on offense and defense, but he now appears much more aggressive to the basket.

Yeah, I would have to say there is more ball movement and shooting from the perimeter, but there's also going to be a lot of driving the lane and dishing off when necessary.  I think we're still going to see passes into the post, but it's probably going to depend on the defensive matchups whether the ball goes back out or the post players muscle to the basket.  Ray seemed comfortable with both hands close to the basket and Colin's fierce approach on offense and ability to get back on defense reminded me a lot of Rhino.
 
I didn't mention it before, but in all the scrimmages I've watched over the years, I've never heard so much verbal chatter/communication on defense than was on audible display on Saturday.

I agree with DD's comments on ball movement, perimeter shooting, and driving the lane. I think the new offensive set or formation will allow for this movement. In the past the Pilots have used a 1-4 set or 1-2-2, having a point guard, 2 wings, and 2 posts. Saturday they set up in a 2-3, two guards, two forwards, and a center who started near the baseline. This leaves the lane lane open for the guards to drive to the hoop. It reminded me of the offense BYU ran last year.

If you have the $$$: ESPN Full List of Secret Scrimmages

And if you don't but still want to know, it looks like Portland will make the trip down to Corvallis on Halloween and the two will face off. In terms of secret scrimmages this is an awesome partner, I recently wrote a preview of Oregon State for bustingbrackets.com (it's where all of us westcoastconvo.com writers ended up because westcoastconvo was disbanded). I'm not quite sure when that will be posted but sometime soon.

Anyway OSU is a team trending way up right now, with a bunch of returning players, and a great recruiting class, it should be a great test for the Pilots

Another team scrimmage planned for tomorrow (Saturday 10/24) at 10:30 in the Chiles Center.

I'm unable to attend, but look forward to a report from others......

DTLegend wrote:.....I recently wrote a preview of Oregon State for bustingbrackets.com  (it's where all of us westcoastconvo.com writers ended up because westcoastconvo was disbanded)

.....OSU is a team trending way up right now, with a bunch of returning players, and a great recruiting class, it should be a great test for the Pilots

Really sorry to hear of westcoastconvo disbanding.....although at times a little uneven in its reporting, it was a very good source of WCC info.  Do you know of another relatively unbiased WCC info source?

Regarding OSU....I think they will be VERY good, and of course they are led by two players possibly headed to the NBA next year, Gary Payton II and Malcom Durvivier. Last year Payton II had the second triple-double in OSU history....some might remember the first to do it, his dad, against UP with 20 points, 14 rebounds and 11 assists back in 1988.

As I recall, OSU will have six very good seniors this year to go along with six freshmen, including two 4-star recruits in shooting guard Stephen Thompson Jr. and the coach’s son, small forward Tres Tinkle.

Yes indeed, a very good test for the young Pilots.

The new Kenpoms are out!

Terry Cahill wrote:Kenpom will project a 9-4 or 8-5 record in non-conference and standard 7-11 or 6-12 finish in WCC. So looking at projection of 14-16 wins heading into Vegas.

I was a little conservative with my guess. Kenpom has the Pilots at 7-4 non-conference, 8-10 in WCC for a total of 15-14. (The Colorado State game is missing)

WCC rankings - Gonzaga 8, BYU 57, Pepperdine 90, Saint Mary’s 143, Pacific 159, Portland 172, San Francisco 175, San Diego 188, Santa Clara 191, Loyola Marymount 295.

Non-conf rankings - Boise State 69, Colorado 72, Colorado State 105, *UTEP 145, Weber State 149, UC Davis 192, *Southern Illinois 193, Sacramento State 235, Portland State 273, Cal State Fullerton 321, Idaho State 334, Alcorn State 343, Abilene Christian 347, Oregon Tech NR.

Hmm, I like KP's optimism.  He and his computer have generally been kind to UP.....now it's just a matter of the team digging deep and living up to those expectations.

As mentioned, the two games in Corpus Christi are not in the equation, but those games would probably be preseason rated as a split.

The WCC is rated as the 10th best conference out of 33....last year they were 9th.  That's probably a fair position just based upon the expected drop of SMC this year, but the conference that moved the WCC down one is the American Conference led by Larry Brown and his probationary SMU team.

KP joins the crowd expecting GU, BYU, and PU to be the top 3, but after that, 4-9, it's really a crap-shoot this year, with LMU expected to finish 10th.

Thanks for taking the time to check all the numbers, TC, I bet you've got Coach Rev checking all the KenPom stats now...

Tomorrow (Monday) we'll get to see how the WCC coaches think the teams will stack up this year and who the top players will be......and we know they all read KenPom's predictions.  
http://portlandpilots.com/news/2015/10/25/MBB_1025151530.aspx

It has been said that UP’s preseason schedule was made with the idea that this young team will need the confidence of some wins if it is find its new identity after the graduation of the Big 3 up front…..and KenPom’s preliminary ranking of all 361 D1 teams seems to add credence to that premise.

Based upon these early rankings, UP will play four (five if UP plays UTEP in Corpus Christi) teams ranked better than the Pilots.

We all know that early ranking can mean little (as can the later rankings), and there have been a number of times the Pilots have lost to teams that were considered lesser foes, but if the Pilots can get off to a fast start and the student body gets behind them in a big way, they can make some big strides before WCC play begins just before Christmas.

Some think the games against Boise State, Colorado, and Colorado State are just not winnable, but it will give the young Pilots a taste of what WCC play will be all about……

UP preseason opponents as ranked by Ken Pomeroy (with thanks to Terry Cahill for breaking them down):

69- Boise St. (Chiles Center 12/5)
72 – Colorado (Boulder – 11/20)
105 – Colorado St. (Corpus Christi – 11/27)
(145 – *UTEP) (Corpus Christi – 11/28?)
149 – Weber St. (Moda Center – 12/18)
172 – UP
192 – UC Davis (Davis – 11/15)
(193 – *Southern Illinois) (Corpus Christi – 11/28?)
235 – Sacramento St. (Chiles Center – 12/12)
273 – PSU (Stott Center 12/2)
321 – Cal St. Fullerton (Moda Center – 12/19)
334 – Idaho St. (Chiles Center – 12/eight)
343 – Alcorn St. (Chiles Center – 11/24)
347 – Abilene Christian (Chiles Center – 11/22)
N/R – Oregon Tech (Chiles Center – 11/13)

DoubleDipper wrote:Tomorrow (Monday) we'll get to see how the WCC coaches think the teams will stack up this year and who the top players will be......and we know they all read KenPom's predictions.  
http://portlandpilots.com/news/2015/10/25/MBB_1025151530.aspx

And the list is out:

1. GU
2. BYU
3. PU
4. SMC
5. UP
6. SCU
7-t. UOP
7-t. USF
9. USD
10. LMU

Alec Wintering was selected to the 10-man preseason All-WCC Team

DoubleDipper wrote:. . .  but if the Pilots can get off to a fast start and the student body gets behind them in a big way, they can make some big strides before WCC play begins just before Christmas.

I hope student support "in a big way" isn't a necessary and sufficient condition for winning some games.  I suspect any student support would follow winning, not the other way around.

Interesting St Mary's gets ranked top 4.

They look more inexperienced than we do. Their returning players had a total of 16 starts last year.

Geezaldinho wrote:Interesting St Mary's gets ranked top 4.

Agreed... but until it is proven on the court, I guess they get the benefit of the doubt... but SMC could be very average this season.

It would seem to me that the top 3 are pretty firm (GU, BYU, Pepp), as are the bottom 2 (LMU, USD)... but the middle 5 will be where the craziness is. Our first WCC road trip on 12/31@USF & 1/2 @SCU should be very important games!