Pilots v. Gonzaga, 2-11-16

The Oregonian has continued its traditional great coverage of the Pilots with this article previewing the game against the Zags:

http://www.oregonlive.com/collegebasketball/index.ssf/2016/02/domantas_sabonis_leading_gonza.html

While we wait for Thursday night's tip-off (8pm, ESPNU), we can watch this on repeat:



Can't hurt to check it out from the reverse angle:

Nice.  

Rev's pregame analysis is short:

@CoachReveno wrote:We have struggled on defense this year (offense has been fun!), and, if we are going to get that solved, NOW is the time.

I don't see our guys stopping Sabonis and Wiltjer, and if our bigs are aggressive on D they'll all foul out.  If they can hold those two to 50 points, and the rest of their team to 20 points, Pilots have a chance.  Pilots got 74 points last game, and the most the Zags have given up since then is 68. How about a new UP record for made 3Ps?  Sure would love to see Bryce get his shooting stroke back to combine with the hot hands of D'Marques, Alec and Jarrel.

Go Pilots!

up7587 wrote:Nice.  

Rev's pregame analysis is short:

@CoachReveno wrote:We have struggled on defense this year (offense has been fun!), and, if we are going to get that solved, NOW is the time.

I don't see our guys stopping Sabonis and Wiltjer, and if our bigs are aggressive on D they'll all foul out.  If they can hold those two to 50 points, and the rest of their team to 20 points, Pilots have a chance.  Pilots got 74 points last game, and the most the Zags have given up since then is 68. How about a new UP record for made 3Ps?  Sure would love to see Bryce get his shooting stroke back to combine with the hot hands of D'Marques, Alec and Jarrel.

Go Pilots!

If all our bigs foul out, so be it. We need to play physical. Lots of double teams. Gonzaga is going to score, we just need to score more.

FYI, KenPom has GU at #34, UP at #211 (6th in WCC).  Odds aren't posted yet.

Doing the work DD won't do since a couple days ago.

Will Maupin has his weekly WCC report up: west-coast-conference-team-of-the-week-and-power-rankings

He calls BYU the most inconsistent team, and LMU the worst defensive team. Those are two tags that have been applied to the Pilots this year. He moved UP from 10th to 5th in his power rankings. Not sure I'd put UP ahead of USF (#6).

up7587 wrote:Sure would love to see Bryce get his shooting stroke back...

I knew Bryce was on a cold-streak, but until I looked at the numbers just now I hadn't realized how serious it has been. It has also exactly corresponded with the Pilots' slump.

In the first two WCC games (wins at home against LMU and Pepperdine), Pressley made 11 three-pointers on 18 attempts (61.1%). It's taken him 11 games to match his total from those first two games.

In the 11 games that have followed, he's made 11 three-pointers on 53 attempts (20.8%). WOW.

up7587 wrote:FYI, KenPom has GU at #34, UP at #211 (6th in WCC).  Odds aren't posted yet.

Doing the work DD won't do since a couple days ago.

Actually, KenPom and the punters are predicting a pretty close game:

KenPom has GU by 11 in a fast paced game which could approach 160 points total.  The early line in Las Vegas has the Zags by 10.

The question is, can the Pilots go to a zone defense daring the guards to shoot, or will Sabonis and Wiltjer just light it up without anyone in their grill?  I predict the Pilots will get out and run, and only abandon the zone or partial zone if Gonzaga's guards start contributing significantly.

And question two is, can Jarrel continue his athletic ways and be in a position to draw fouls from Sabonis?  If so, we could see some frustration and fewer minutes from Sabonis.

To have a chance, we need some offensive balance. The centers are a lost cause, offensively speaking. Realistically, that leaves us 5 potential offensive weapons: Wintering, Pressley, Tyson, Marshall, Taylor.

Based on the stats I cited above, I don't feel too confident about Pressley's offense these days. In any case, I think we'll need at least four of these five guys to be major contributors in the scoring column if we're going to have any chance. Wintering and Tyson can't do it alone.

As much as I would like to watch a game with the total points approaching 160 in total, I think this game needs to be slowed down for Pilots to win.  In Gonzaga's 5 losses they scored less than 70 points.  Sabonis can play any type of flow to the game, but I don't think Wiltjer does very well when he has to work in a half court game.  I know we don't play well in the half court as well.

In the game in Spokane Wiltjer went 6-9 from three and the Pilots were 4-20 as a team.  Tyson was 1-7 from 3. This can't happen again for us to have a chance.  

We will get the scoring from Alec, Bryce, & D'Marques.  What do we get from Jason, Gabe, Jarrel, & Jazz will be the difference.  Anything from Ray, Philipp & Colin will be a bonus.

The match up I am interested in is Jarrel vs Wiltjer.  If we get the Jarrel from the last few games this should be a good match up.

All I know is nothing will go the way I think it will, but I will be at the Chiles Center cheering on the Pilots!

There are my thoughts - Go Pilots!!  Beat GU!!

Lets play late 80's style LMU defense/offense. If we're going to suck at defense anyways we may as well go all in.
https://www.breakthroughbasketball.com/offense/paul-westhead-fast-break-offense.html

210 points on the over/under? Should be fun to watch at least.

Anticipating another sold-out Chiles Center in which the majority of fans will be rooting for the visiting team, The Beacon's Sports Editor, Malika Andrews, takes it to Pilots fans in an EXCELLENT column. I think she is spot on. Some highlights:

"Pilot basketball supporters have settled into mediocrity, becoming so complacent in the stands during games that it’s more appropriate to call them “bystanders” than “fans.”"

On the BYU game:
"The box score listed a sellout, but it felt as though 75 percent of that crowd supported the Cougars. The rafters echoed with chants of “Let’s go Cougs” and the Cougar cheers were louder than any Pilot cheers heard in any game all season."

"The student section this season has been weak. At the game against BYU, athletics recorded 498 students in attendance, but I would guess only 20 were on their feet yelling. Only four half-full rows of students stood during a game against Santa Clara, one Portland was favored to win. And they stood silently."

"Don’t pin this only on the students, who take up only one of the five sections of seats in the Chiles Center. Everyone can do better. Clapping politely doesn’t cut it."

"Imagine how discouraging it must be when home court feels nothing like home."

NoPoNeighbor wrote:

Could watch this all day.

I could rant for hours about the student section despite my efforts to change the culture while I was there. Unfortunately, there is a bit of a chicken and egg issue here: team needs to win for students to come out and students need to come out for the team to win.

I don't want to get into social identity theory and all the research done on it.

(╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻

UGAPilot wrote:  Unfortunately, there is a bit of a chicken and egg issue here: team needs to win for students to come out and students need to come out for the team to win.

All available student tickets for tonight's game have been claimed by UP students.  I'm sure they'll start out noisy, buy it will up to the team to ensure they sustain that noise.

Tip your cap. Pilots needed to shoot well from 3P, and keep Zags from doing so. Zags couldn't miss, and defended UP very well. Pilots did a good job against Sabonis, and Wiltjer was always going to get his. But he was unbelievable, and their other players made the shots we couldn't afford them to make.

On to the SMC game.

I was afraid we might come out cold after last weekend... but I had no idea it would be THAT cold. I thought we played pretty well in the first half, and if a couple of those missed 3's had gone in, we would have been within a couple points at the half. GU made a 9-0 run late in the first half that was the difference at halftime.

You have to recognize Wiltjer's performance... what a stud. He & Sabonis just took over... GU couldn't miss, and UP couldn't hit--the recipe for the 2nd half blowout. We were generally getting decent looks (but the Zags certainly defended the perimeter well), but I was disappointed by our perimeter defense and how many wide open looks GU got... with no UP defender within 10 feet. I guess we were so focused on defending the their bigs that we weren't able to do both. As someone said above, we needed them to not be making those shots.

It wont get any easier next week vs. SMC, but at least we have some extra time to prepare with a bye this weekend.

Most of those wide open looks seemed to be after a double team and 3 passes to find the open guy. In some previous games their other players shot poorly; not last night.

I don't know that St. Mary's will require the double teaming, but they have been pretty balanced this year. And they couldn't miss in the first game. Pepperdine took them down last night. Maybe they showed the way.

up7587 wrote:Most of those wide open looks seemed to be after a double team and 3 passes to find the open guy.  In some previous games their other players shot poorly; not last night.

Exactly... they were very effective in quickly finding the (wide) open shooters who were on fire.

I liked seeing Marshall taking control--I hope we continue to see that.

In addition to the outside shooting, the key to GU's dominant victory was completely shutting down the UP guards. Wintering, Pressley and Tyson were all non-factors. If Wintering struggles, the whole team follows.

I agree to a point NoPo, but i would say that GU did a nice job in adjusting to how they were defending Wintering and the Bryce. Wintering started the game getting to the rim with a taller defender but then Few switched it up and it slowed Alec down. I dont think Wintering was a non factor, he started strong but was defended better as the game progressed.