Seattle U @ Pilots, 12/17, 7pm

The Chieftains Redhawks are 9-3, rated #171 by Kenpom. They've defeated WSU and EWU, and lost to UW (any other Washington schools to play?). They last played a week ago. Five players are averaging double figures.

Pilots will have to play totally different than they did Saturday to have a chance.

up7587 wrote:The Chieftains Redhawks are 9-3, rated #171 by Kenpom.  They've defeated WSU and EWU, and lost to UW (any other Washington schools to play?). They last played a week ago.  Five players are averaging double figures.  

Pilots will have to play totally different than they did Saturday to have a chance.  

Coming off their near-upset of UW last time out, Seattle U has started the season 9-3 for the first time since 1968-69, and it was that season Seattle U improved to 10-3 with a 79-54 win at Portland.

The Seattle U/Portland U series dates back to the 1940s (including the infamous Elgin Baylor caper), with the Redhawks holding a 73-31 all-time record over the Pilots, and many may remember last year’s Seattle U win, 89-76, in which they shot over 60% in the second half and dropped a season-high 16 3-pointers.

Talking to a couple of the players today, they too were embarrassed by their performance against Grambling St, and Jacob tells me he’ll be much more comfortable after having that game behind him, and won’t again go 0-7 from the field.

I know that Tryon hasn't played much yet, but those limited minutes have been ugly (even pre-injury). Last night was not an aberration. It's great that he says he "won't again go 0-7 from the field," but even before last night his total shooting numbers weren't much better: 4-16.

vs. Antelope Valley: 3-9 FG, 2-7 3pt, 6 Reb
vs. Westmont: 1-5, 0-2, 4 reb
vs. Hawai'i: 0-2, 0-1, 1 reb
vs. Grambling: 0-7, 0-6, 3 reb
TOTAL: 4-23, 2-16, 3.5 rpg

Tryon's offensive performance thus far makes one pine for the good old days of Phil Hartwich and his 5.3 ppg. And having Tryon exclusively playing out on the wing hoisting threes means he is limited in rebounding, which is what you'd hope that a 7' guy would be able to do. At this point, giving him any minutes that could otherwise be played Hogland, Diabate or Akwuba seems like a bad coaching decision.

The Pilot women went up against one of the better full-court pressing, swarming defenses in the country yesterday and lost, but they were actually enjoyable to watch in their loss, unlike the men were on Saturday night.

Why?  Because they are an unselfish, team-oriented cohesive team with senior leadership.... something that has taken quite awhile to achieve.

In contrast, I just don't see the men's team being enjoyable to watch or winning with any regularity until some very good individual athletes come together as a unit and someone steps-up and assumes floor leadership.  The recruiting the past couple of years has been excellent, but now the pressure is on the coaches and players to approach their potential as a team.

Las Vegas is favoring Seattle U by 4 tonight, and KenPom.com is favoring #171 Seattle by only 3 points over #281 Portland.  Based upon what we’ve seen to this point, the margin will be much, much wider unless the Pilots can instantly upgrade their game and start playing TEAM basketball.

Agreed, DD! One way to think about how this team could function better as a team is to look at the mismatch between FG attempts and FG%. We are not getting our best players enough shots, and the guys who aren't performing as well are taking too many shots (which means they are taking bad shots instead of getting good shots for the other guys). The three lowest FG% among regular rotation players are also the three guys who have put up the most shots (by FAR!):

PLAYER / FGA / FG%
Shaver / 142 / .387
McSwiggan / 127 / .449
Walker / 120 / .425

F. Porter / 64 / .500
Diabate / 57 / .561
Akwuba / 50 / .540
M. Porter / 45 / .467
Hogland / 37 / .568

Bottom line: Among the top-8 players, the guy with the lowest shooting percentage is taking the most shots, while the guy with the highest percentage is taking the fewest shots.

If we're going to talk metrics I think we need to use field goals per 40 minutes played and effective FG% which accounts for 3-pointers (i.e. a 50% FG rate for Porter is much more valuable than a 50% FG rate for Diabate because Porter's will have included some threes). This only includes the games against D1 teams:

Code:

              FGA/40      eFG
Shaver          14.8    42.9%
Walker          12.2    57.8%
Diabate         12.8    56.0%
McSwiggan       11.4    51.0%
Hogland         9.7     58.6%
F. Porter       8.7     61.2%
M. Porter       6.9     51.7%
Akwuba          6.7     50.0%


Average D1 eFG is 50.8% so I'll agree with you that there's a very notable exception at the top. But besides that, there doesn't seem to be any egregious numbers. Hogland and Franklin's usage seems low just based on this, but we have seen a huge transition in Hogland's role over the past two games and Franklin's numbers are skewed by one exceptional game (his eFG slides all the way down to 52% without that Cal Poly performance in there).

But as I've seen Coach Rev tweet out before, "stats indict, video convicts" - so take it all with a grain of salt

DoubleDipper wrote:
In contrast, I just don't see the men's team being enjoyable to watch or winning with any regularity until some very good individual athletes come together as a unit and someone steps-up and assumes floor leadership.  The recruiting the past couple of years has been excellent, but now the pressure is on the coaches and players to approach their potential as a team.

Las Vegas is favoring Seattle U by 4 tonight, and KenPom.com is favoring #171 Seattle by only 3 points over #281 Portland.  Based upon what we’ve seen to this point, the margin will be much, much wider unless the Pilots can instantly upgrade their game and start playing TEAM basketball.

It's interesting. I haven't been able to watch as much pilot basketball as i would have liked to this year. Grambling State was the first game i've seen in person (and i only got to stay for the first half). From one half of basketball, it was evident to me that TEAM is an issue. No high fives. No fist bumps. No chest bumps. No yelling encouragement. Not a lot of talking. Head hanging when the other team scores. looking at each other after a mistake to blame. If this changed it would lead to drastic improvement.

Dean Murdoch wrote:If we're going to talk metrics I think we need to use field goals per 40 minutes played and effective FG% which accounts for 3-pointers (i.e. a 50% FG rate for Porter is much more valuable than a 50% FG rate for Diabate because Porter's will have included some threes). This only includes the games against D1 teams:

Code:

              FGA/40      eFG
Shaver          14.8    42.9%
Walker          12.2    57.8%
Diabate         12.8    56.0%
McSwiggan       11.4    51.0%
Hogland         9.7     58.6%
F. Porter       8.7     61.2%
M. Porter       6.9     51.7%
Akwuba          6.7     50.0%


Average D1 eFG is 50.8% so I'll agree with you that there's a very notable exception at the top. But besides that, there doesn't seem to be any egregious numbers. Hogland and Franklin's usage seems low just based on this, but we have seen a huge transition in Hogland's role over the past two games and Franklin's numbers are skewed by one exceptional game (his eFG slides all the way down to 52% without that Cal Poly performance in there).

But as I've seen Coach Rev tweet out before, "stats indict, video convicts" - so take it all with a grain of salt

Great stuff, Dean. Thanks for the more advanced metrics. I think the basic conclusion is the same: Shaver should be shooting less. That might mean playing fewer minutes, but it definitely means taking fewer shots and instead distributing to his teammates. Franklin and Hogland should be shooting more, which means playing more minutes. Of course that might not be feasible if Hogland's conditioning isn't to the point of being able to increase his minutes.

A general question about eFG%... This stat gives appropriate weight to a three-point shot, which makes a ton of sense. However, does it take into account the defensive disadvantage that comes from a missed shot on offense, as compared to a made shot on offense?

For example: If you take 100 two-point shots and want to score 100 points, you have to make 50 shots, which leaves 50 available defensive rebounds for your opponent. But if you take 100 three-point shots and want to score 100 points, you only have to make 34 shots, leaving 66 available defensive rebounds. These two scenarios would result in the same eFG%, yet the latter provides 16 additional defensive rebound opportunities for your opponent. What is the impact of that, in terms of your opponent's offense (and therefore your defense)? Is it known what the points-per-possession difference is following an opponent's missed shot vs. a made shot? I would guess that possessions beginning with a defensive rebound (as opposed to passing the ball in from under the hoop following a made basket) are, on average, higher efficiency possessions.

My point here is that I think an eFG% of X% made up entirely of two-point baskets is probably better for the team as a whole than the same X% made up entirely of three-point baskets, because the latter produces more empty possessions and therefore better offense coming back the other way for your opponent.

The hypothesis about possessions beginning with a defensive rebound being higher efficiency possessions is an interesting one and one I hadn't considered. I wonder if that's been examined in detail somewhere?

NoPoNeighbor wrote:My point here is that I think an eFG% of X% made up entirely of two-point baskets is probably better for the team as a whole than the same X% made up entirely of three-point baskets, because the latter produces more empty possessions and therefore better offense coming back the other way for your opponent.

Example A: Diabate is 30-60 from the field, all 2 pointers (50% eFG)
Example B: Shaver is 20-60 from the field, all 3 pointers (50% eFG)

Both 60 possessions, both resulting in 60 points for the Pilots. One might actually argue that an eFG% of X% made entirely of THREE-point baskets is better, because those 10 extra missed shots also represent opportunities for offensive rebounds and extra possessions for the Pilots.

(Considering UP is down 22-3 at the moment, maybe us Pilots fans should be worrying about something other than analytics)

22-3

Pilots will be on the court soon, I hope.

Must of been some more exams today.

What’s Reveno doing nowadays?

Geezaldinho wrote:What’s Reveno doing nowadays?

Still at Georgia Tech looks like it.

https://twitter.com/CoachReveno

Pilots are currently 3-13 from the line.

Nice try at a comeback, but yeah, going 5-17 from the charity strip and allowing a 22-6 run...

Sound Voltex wrote:

Geezaldinho wrote:What’s Reveno doing nowadays?

Still at Georgia Tech looks like it.

https://twitter.com/CoachReveno

What’s Bobby knight doing?

No coaches for the postgame. That might be a first.

Geezaldinho wrote:No coaches for the postgame. That might be a first.

No, it is not a first. Happened before after a bad loss.

Coach Cantu said in pregame that a positive was getting to the FT line and shooting better. He must be cursed.
Hugh 2 of 6
Diabate 0 of 3 (really of 5, two front ends)
JoJo 2 of 4
Theo 0 of 2
Malcolm 1 of 2

Yeah, that free throw shooting really killed the comeback. Very demoralizing especially when it's the front end of a one and one. Diabate is a guy that should shoot a lot of free throws, and doesn't look bad at the line, hopefully he'll make it a priority. Didn't understand the technical he was assessed.

This team doesn't seem to be developing very much. The post play of the big men is very poor and that makes half court offense difficult. Hard for the outside shooters to get much space when there's no interior threat.

bobtcat2 wrote:Didn't understand the technical he was assessed.

There had been a run of calls that the Pilots disagreed with, and when Diabate got stripped, he felt he was fouled, but no call. He expressed to the ref that he disagreed with that. Not sure what he said, but it got the T.

up7587 wrote:

bobtcat2 wrote:Didn't understand the technical he was assessed.

There had been a run of calls that the Pilots disagreed with, and when Diabate got stripped, he felt he was fouled, but no call.  He expressed to the ref that he disagreed with that.  Not sure what he said, but it got the T.

Some of these refs have a quick trigger. I thought there were several questionable calls prior to that, and his reaction wasn't very demonstrative.

This is hard to watch- love Porter, but he doesn't seem to be enjoying this. WCC is going to be very difficult. I think they are projected as the underdog in every game by Kenpom. Probably win 2 or 3.

Pilots hall of famer Kristin Hepton got Teed up after a string of bad calls when she said 
“ I feel like I’m getting homered at my own place” 
as she ran past the ref.