Re: 2017-2018 Non Conference Schedule

by Guest Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:17 am

Looking back at the preseason results, a 6-7 is what should have occurred. There are no losses to bad teams. PSU is 10-3, BSU is 10-2. DePaul is 7-5 with two PK80 losses. UNC and OU are top 20 in KenPom. Fullerton is 7-4; their only losses are to SMC and three power 5s. Seattle is 8-6, and four of their losses are to SMC and three Pac-12s.

The current 8 man rotation is 2 seniors and 6 players in their first year of getting playing time. Hard to see how anyone could expect better than 6-7. I guess if you are going to schedule that tough, it's better to have a young team that can learn from each loss, than an experienced team that might get dispirited.

According to KenPom, UP is the lowest rated WCC team at 302. Not sure how SCU (3-9) is at 259; they lost to SJS, and to Idaho, Alaska-Anchorage and Sam Houston St. in a holiday tournament. PU is also 3-9 and rated 298, just above us. UOP is 5-8 and rated 218. LMU is 5-8 and rated 205. None of those schools have great wins, and LMU and SCU also lost to PSU. We saw how close the Pilots came to beating PSU. I think this team will compete well in the bottom 5 of the conference. Probably not good enough to avoid the dreaded play-in group of four, but maybe.

On to a new 2017-2018 Conference Schedule thread, and Merry Christmas to all.

by Guest Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:50 pm

Mid Major Madness' power rankings for WCC non-conference play has the Pilots 7th. wcc-power-rankings-west-coast-conference

The comment on the Pilots:

Will Maupin wrote:The Pilots finally have as many wins against D-I opponents as they do against non-D-I opponents. Unfortunately, those three D-I teams that have lost to Portland have a combined six D-I wins. Not exactly the cream of the crop. But, five of their seven losses have come to top-150 KenPom teams. They’ve played good teams, but have only looked good against really bad teams. Fortunately for the Pilots, the bottom half of the WCC is down this year, so they’ll have plenty more chances to look good.

I mostly agree, except for the part about only looking good against really bad teams. I think they looked good against PSU (for 37-1/2 minutes), played a strong half in Seattle, and played well for much of the Fullerton game (but nobody could hit a 3P).

by DoubleDipper Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:25 am

KenPom, using multiple analytics, ranks the WCC Conference the 5th best mid-major conference out of 26, so at least the WCC as a whole has held up pretty well in non-conference play.

1. American Athletic
2. Mountain West
3. Missouri Valley
4. Atlantic 10
5. West Coast
6. Summit
7. Colonial
8. USA
9. Mid-American
10. Sun Belt

“First, we want 20 wins, we want conference titles, we want multiple winning seasons, and then we can talk about NCAA tournament bids.” Porter said in regards to the goals of the team. He continued saying “I want what the fans and our players want. I want to go to an NCAA tournament, but we’ve got to build consistency.”

http://uproxx.com/dimemag/terry-porter-university-of-portland-pilots-coach-trail-blazers/

by bobtcat2 Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:00 pm

Interested to catch the game on ESPN3 tonight. Seems like one of those where Pilots will hang around for a half and lose by maybe 24 in the end. Maybe give BYU a run for their money in the rematch.

by Sound Voltex Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:54 pm

DoubleDipper wrote:
“First, we want 20 wins, we want conference titles, we want multiple winning seasons, and then we can talk about NCAA tournament bids.” Porter said in regards to the goals of the team. He continued saying “I want what the fans and our players want. I want to go to an NCAA tournament, but we’ve got to build consistency.”

Portland has a squad that most likely falls somewhere in the bottom half of NCAA Division I teams this year. Carrying a record of 6-7, they are currently rated #226 overall (out of 351) in All-Play Percentage this season.

Portland will likely rely on their offense more than anything else to win games. The team is ranked 125th in offensive efficiency and scores more than 104 points for every 100 trips upcourt vs. AO. Portland is one of the most accurate teams when shooting from long-distance. They're ranked fifth nationally in three-point field goal percentage and make about 43.9% of their attempts from there vs. AO. The team will try to shoot a fair amount of threes, too. Roughly 43.4% of their field goal attempts vs. AO are from long, giving the team a top-75 ranking in that category. Portland has also been fairly successful when shooting from the field. The squad is ranked 70th in the country in field goal percentage, making approximately 47.3% of their attempts vs. AO. If Portland does have a glaring weakness offensively, it would have to be the team's difficulties obtaining and converting second-chance opportunities from offensive rebounds. The squad has a second-chance conversion percentage of just 3.0% vs. AO, which ranks tenth-worst in the nation.

Unfortunately, Portland is not even remotely close to being as good on defense as they are on offense. The team is ranked 296th in defensive efficiency, allowing about 110 points every 100 possessions vs. AO. Portland allows the opposition to get off far too many shots from the floor. The team is ranked ninth from the bottom in the nation in defensive field goal attempt rate with a rating of 89.57 vs. AO. Portland is also extremely underskilled to force steals that turn into quick and easy points. They're ranked #339 in potential points off of breakaway steals with a rating of only 5.61 vs. AO.

Portland is one of the more consistent teams in Division I (presently ranked 30th in consistency), so forecasting the outcomes of their future contests tends to be easier than the norm.

http://haslametrics.com/ratings2.php?yr=&tid=5025

by bobtcat2 Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:46 pm

bobtcat2 wrote:Interested to catch the game on ESPN3 tonight. Seems like one of those where Pilots will hang around for a half and lose by maybe 24 in the end. Maybe give BYU a run for their money in the rematch.

Well what do you know- final margin was 24.

by Guest Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:25 pm

Remember the Hartford team the Pilots beat back in December for the 2nd D1 win of the season? Well Hartford is 16-11 now (11-4 since that game), and just beat Vermont at Vermont, breaking their 15 game win streak. They took over the longest streak after SMC lost.

by Guest Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:45 pm

Looking back at the season, in addition to Gonzaga in the NCAA, and St Mary's and BYU in the NIT, the Pilots played the follow teams that made post season play:
#2 seed North Carolina
#10 seed Oklahoma
NIT Boise State
#15 seed CS Fullerton
CBI Seattle
CIT Hartford
CBI USF
CIT USD

PSU ended with 20 wins, but no post-season invite. As for the other D-1 teams the Pilots played, DePaul tanked in conference play, and San Jose St and Sac St had bad seasons.

by DoubleDipper Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:55 pm

up7587 wrote:
PSU ended with 20 wins, but no post-season invite.

Actually, PSU is in the CIT, and will play one of the winners of tonight's four preliminary games later this week at a date, time, and location TBD.

Thanks for the rundown...

by Guest Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:40 pm

Hmm, my methodology was flawed. I looked at CIT scheduled games on ESPN.com, and they don't show any past Thursday. Didn't realize they used play-in games. And since the next games aren't scheduled yet, they did not show up.