2017-2018 Non Conference Schedule

KenPom's #61 Boise State Broncos (DePaul was #129) is favored to beat #305 UP by 19 to 20.5 points Sunday at 1pm PST in Boise State's Taco Bell Arena.

Boise State is 7-1 and has beaten #49 UO in their only true road game to date, and they've beaten Southern Utah by 21, dominated previously unbeaten #102 Loyola Chicago by 23 points, has beaten LMU by 20, just edged UTEP by 2, and trounced #120 Illinois St. by 18.  Their only loss was in Myrtle Beach to #58 Iowa St. by 11.

One of the most significant statistics in Boise State's favor is their +9.8 rebounding margin while outscoring opponents by almost 16 points per game average.

Interesting UP stats: The Pilots 48% 3-point shooting is #2 in the nation, but their 36.8 2-point shooting is #351, is last in the country! (Oh, and their free-throw shooting is 10th from last at 61.3%).

By contrast, BSU's is shooting 3-pointers at a 41% rate (33rd), 2-pointers at 46.9 (#248), and free-throw shooting at 73.7% (99th).

On paper it looks at though the Pilots will have to wait awhile before picking up their first D1 win of the season as I don't see Coach Leon Rice (or ultra-short-time UP Coach Mike Burns) allowing BSU a letdown after taking down UO at the buzzer on Friday night.

So...



You’re sayin there’s a chance?

Geezaldinho wrote:So...



You’re sayin there’s a chance?

I mean, Grambling State beat Georgia Tech the other day (granted the game-winner was an own-goal by GT but whatev's), so there's always a chance.

Down by 18 at halftime, so the spread seems about right even though we pulled to within 6 at one point. If you take those D3 schools out of our schedule, I am willing to bet we have played one of the toughest non-conference schedules to date.

Interesting lineup today with both Walker and Shaver, Jr. starting. We started one senior, two sophomores, and two freshmen. Off the bench: one senior and two more freshmen. As painful as it is right now to be rebuilding (seems to always be that way), this will be a HUGE benefit to us in the coming years. We could see a repeat of Reveno's first two seasons being forgettable and then taking off in year three.

RealTimeRPI has us at 249 with the 0-4 record, for what that's worth -- ahead of Pepperdine, San Francisco, and Santa Clara.

Timeline of thought process through the first half:
- Oh ****, it's going to be one of those games isn't it?
- Okay, within the spread, das alright.
- Oh wow, it's almost a one possession game.
- ...I think we should stop getting runs against good teams from now on. [/sarcasmish]

Whew! Glad we got the exhibition portion of our schedule out of the way. Real non-conference starts next game right?




Hey, at this point, let's have some fun watching this team grow.

Two takeaways from this afternoon's game:
1) Boise State is pretty good.
2) The Pilots aren't very good.

A lot of bad decisions, bad shots, and failure to take advantage of opportunities at the rim. Mostly these mistakes are being made by freshmen and sophomores, but also by Hartwich, who can't buy a bucket unless it's a dunk.

SouthCarolinaPilot wrote:..... I am willing to bet we have played one of the toughest non-conference schedules to date.

Interesting lineup today with both Walker and Shaver, Jr. starting.

I think many of us expected to see Marcus start considering he seemed to narrow it down to the two schools before deciding to attend UP.  That and the fact many Bronco fans were quite surprised and/or bitter that he spurned BSU to play for UP....unfortunately it was his worst game of the year.

As for having the toughest schedule...that's always a tough one to judge because it can be all about matchups, but just going by KenPom's analytics, the Pilots have played the 12th toughest schedule in D1.

The next closest in the WCC is Gonzaga at 114, BYU at 140, LMU at 169, and St. Mary's at 208.  It's not surprising which team has had the easiest schedule in D1, it's Georgetown, the school that dropped out of PK-80 and built a powder-puff preseason schedule so Patrick Ewing would have success there.  The result: they're 5-0. The easiest schedule in the WCC: Santa Clara (340)

Yesterday the TV announcers kept making a point of LMU's lack of experience, so I checked-out how UP stacked up against LMU and others:

First off, the least experienced teams in D1 are Kentucky (351) and Duke (350)!  I guess that shouldn't have surprised me, but it did.

In the WCC the least experienced teams are Pepperdine (332), UP (329), LMU (321), and USF (279).  The most experienced squad in the WCC is SMC (17), the most experienced opponent UP has played so far is Portland State (24), and our most experienced upcoming opponent is Hartford (25).

That's not even a top-25 team over there? Sheesh, that squad seems legit.

I'm assuming the decision to let Smith play for 4 minutes was because he was a hometown kid? Must have been nice for him even given the circumstances.

I'm trying to stay positive...I'm impressed with Franklin and Shavers ability to create their own offense...The other young guards look good.

Much more talent than last year, YOUNG talent.

DD or anybody, did Shaver hurt the same ankle that he did in PK80?

MesaPilot1 wrote:DD or anybody, did Shaver hurt the same ankle that he did in PK80?

Sorry, I don't recall...

There are 351 D1 teams...here's how UP stacks up against those teams in terms of shooting the ball:

3-Point percentage: 46.8% (1)
2-Point percentage: 35.7% (351)
Free-Throw percentage: 58.9% (347)

Hey-oh, wanted to reflect further on what I saw (thought I saw) yesterday from BSU's Taco Bell Arena ("Live Mas") before I posted anything.  Also wanted to talk to a few Bronco fans to get their input.

My initial thought and where I am still leaning, is that Portland was one of the worst D-1 teams I have seen in a long long time.  My cronies are not as harsh but were not in the least bit impressed by either the talent - or the scheme - brought forward on Sunday.

I was hopeful that Porter's aggressive action after last year to upgrade the talent would set the foundation for future success.  I did not see that foundation yesterday.  Smaller, slower, uninterested defensively and generally unorganized offensively was what I saw and with the exception of the offense, those attributes typically don't get better over time.  

Granted this was a Sunday afternoon game on the road and as my Bronco contingency pointed out this 17-18 edition of Boise State might be have that "sum is greater than the parts" magic. If they continue to shoot like they have been they are a lock for the NCAA tournament.

The only bright spots to my eyes and ears were McSwiggan (who battled hard and was productive but looked like he should be playing for D-2 Northwest Nazarene), Local kid Brian Smith getting playing time (did nothing special with it but certainly was no worse than the rest of the crew) and in the what I heard department, several UP Alums mentioned they were quite pleased with the Alumni pre-game festivities. Probably were headed back for more fortification after the game.

Sure hope I am wrong and that Sunday's game was a one-off but put me in the skeptical category both for the season and beyond.

DoubleDipper wrote:

MesaPilot1 wrote:DD or anybody, did Shaver hurt the same ankle that he did in PK80?

Sorry, I don't recall...

There are 351 D1 teams...here's how UP stacks up against those teams in terms of shooting the ball:

3-Point percentage: 46.8% (1)
2-Point percentage: 35.7% (351)
Free-Throw percentage: 58.9% (347)

On FTs, without Philipp's numbers, the team average is just over 69%, putting them around 204. Not great, but not worst.

San Diego is right down there at the bottom on FTs, too. They have a starter shooting 59.3% on 16 of 27, another shooting 52.6% on 10 of 19, and a sub shooting 19% on 4 of 21. The last guy is shooting 75% (25 of 32) from the field. Since he's 6'-10", I suspect he scores mostly dunks. Foul him to prevent field goals, every time.

up7587 wrote:

DoubleDipper wrote:

MesaPilot1 wrote:DD or anybody, did Shaver hurt the same ankle that he did in PK80?

Sorry, I don't recall...

There are 351 D1 teams...here's how UP stacks up against those teams in terms of shooting the ball:

3-Point percentage: 46.8% (1)
2-Point percentage: 35.7% (351)
Free-Throw percentage: 58.9% (347)

On FTs, without Philipp's numbers, the team average is just over 69%, putting them around 204.  Not great, but not worst.  

San Diego is right down there at the bottom on FTs, too. They have a starter shooting 59.3% on 16 of 27, another shooting 52.6% on 10 of 19, and a sub shooting 19% on 4 of 21.  The last guy is shooting 75% (25 of 32) from the field.  Since he's 6'-10", I suspect he scores mostly dunks.  Foul him to prevent field goals, every time.

First, a howdy to Mesa.

Second. I’m in a quandary about tall players not being able to hit their free throws. One study I saw says that between 16 and 20 percent of all USA citizens over 7 feet and between 17 and 40 are in the nba RIGHT NOW.  That’s all of them, not just those who have ever stepped  on a court.
Foreigners who can actually play basketball probably are at a higher percentage.

I used to be almost 5’11”. With cartelage deterioration, I’m now closer to 5’9”.

If I was a seven footer and was looking at a $100 million dollar career for the ten years or so I had to work to earn it, I’d be damn sure I learned to put a 9 1/2” sphere in an 18” hoop from 15 feet, I’d practice 100 hours a week until I could top 95%.

DoubleDipper wrote:

Sound Voltex wrote:Boise State stuns Oregon and breaks the longest home game win streak with a halfcourt buzzer beater.

If you think Duck fans are in a funk over this loss, just wait until Willie Taggart and his recruits bolt for FSU....

Buddy of mine working at the Kennedy Space Center tells me FSU would really like to sign Taggart in the next day or two, but Phil Knight is going all out to keep Taggart and his committed recruits in Eugene ($$$).

Wouldn't blame Taggart for leaving the PNW for his home in Florida, and does a school really want a coach that is only staying for the money?  If Taggart is seriously considering FSU, what other job might he consider in the coming years if he stays at UO and would rather be elsewhere?

DD wrote:does a school really want a coach that is only staying for the money?

Is that a serious question?

Of course they would if he wins. If he doesn’t, there is no angst in dumping him.

And all coaches are in it for the money. This ain’t charity. All that loyalty crap is for the unpaid players, not the professionals in the game.

lomiton wrote:.....Smaller, slower, uninterested defensively and generally unorganized offensively was what I saw and with the exception of the offense, those attributes typically don't get better over time.  

......and in the what I heard department, several UP Alums mentioned they were quite pleased with the Alumni pre-game festivities. Probably were headed back for more fortification after the game.

Didn't see the game so I cannot comment on the team being unorganized, but for those of us who have seen the team play all their previous games, this years Pilots are actually bigger, much quicker, and definitely more athletic compared to last year's group, but that has yet to translate into a TEAM performance against D1 competition.

Good to hear the Alumni pre-game was well liked.  I believe there are now 10 UP Regional Chapters offering numerous opportunities for alumni, parents, and friends of UP to meet fellow Pilots and build their professional and social networks close to home....and there's some beer drinking that goes on too.  

While it is painful to watch right now, we have been run through the gauntlet. I do agree that this group of basketball players appear to be the most athletic I have seen in my ten years (not much compared to other posters) of following Pilot basketball. That's not a knock on previous players or teams, but Reveno's style was different.

I am still optimistic for what will happen when this team matures and plays together longer. We have the equivalent of a brand new high school with its freshmen/JV team playing against the varsity squad from an established school (sometimes champion school). Let them make dumb mistakes and learn from it together. The wins will come in time.

Looking ahead we have Cal State Fullerton (4-3) at home. They have two wins over non-D1s (pot meet kettle). Losses to USC (destroyed), Saint Mary's, and Georgia (all quality losses). Wins over Sacramento State (who is having a much, much worse season than us) and Harvard. That Harvard win is impressive. This should be more of a match down at "our level." I'm glad it's on our home floor.

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Objectively, they have a chance to be okay with time and experience.

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...just giving you my opinion.  Again, it could have been a "one-off" Sunday afternoon deal but Boise State pretty much mailed it in the 2nd half and could have dictated any score they wanted. Outside of McSwiggan and #5, the Pilots couldn't throw it in the ocean. Even worse (to my mind) was that Portland rarely contested defensively as the Broncos shot wide open 3 after wide open 3.  

I hope I am wrong but perhaps my expectations were too high with all the turnover between this year and last.  Was really hoping I would see an upgrade in talent.  My objective is not to "have a chance to be okay" - I would like to see Portland in it's rightful place as a constant challenger in the upper echelon of the WCC. And an occasional participant in the NCAA tournament. Not right away, but someday.  Not asking to be Gonzaga or Saint Mary's, just something like a Boise State in the MWC.

I not only didn't see that potential on Sunday, I didn't even see the earmarkings of that, unless we are on some sort of a 10 year plan. Boise State was bigger, stronger, more skilled and better disciplined across the board.  

That's enough from me - I only see the Pilots when they play in Boise or on TV so I really shouldn't be commenting in any depth about Pilot basketball.  However, I do watch enough college basketball to know what I see.  Again, I hope Sunday was just a one-off.

Going to head over to the RAM and see if the UP Alumni department is still buying drinks for people

No, it wasn't just `one-off` Sunday....the Pilots are definitely struggling to find an identity, and their lack of defense of the three-pointer is not new this season (admittedly they are playing top-75 teams this year, but there are currently only 16 teams worse than UP at defending the 3....the D1 average is 34.8%, and the Pilots are allowing 42.5%).

Interesting that #5, D'Marques Tyson, was singled out for praise. A senior, D'Marques is not the quickest, strongest, most athletic, or best defender, but 4 years on the Bluff has made him a "smart" player and a good leader who can also shoot....something the Pilots are in great need of.

I think all of us have great expectations, so yes it has been disappointing to this point, but we have seen flashes of brilliant play from time-to-time that keeps giving us hope for the future.

Besides a win, if I were granted a Christmas wish, it would be an INSIDE GAME to jump-start the entire team to start winning.

DoubleDipper wrote:Buddy of mine working at the Kennedy Space Center tells me FSU would really like to sign Taggart in the next day or two, but Phil Knight is going all out to keep Taggart and his committed recruits in Eugene ($$$).

Don't know if a decision has been made, but my cousin who played football at UO, tells me a team meeting has been called for 1:30 today...and that a public announcement will be made soon after.

Could be nothing, but this is not the time of year team meetings are usually called unless something "unusual" has occured....I'm told.