Re: 2014-15 Opponents Thread: How are they doing?

[DoubleDipper]

GU by 7?  Based on what I saw yesterday of both teams, I'd give the points.

Agreed!  The Las Vegas line is only 8.5 points.

[Guest]

I like following @nybuckets on twitter. A lot of content on the small eastern conferences (MAAC, NEC, AE) but he also does an NIT bracketology...and released his first one of the season today.

Pilots not seeded in this "if season ended today" bracket, but are at the bottom on the "others seriously considered" list.

http://wp.me/p1s9Af-4D8

[DoubleDipper]

....and the Pilots join GU and BYU in the Mid-Major Madness Top 15 after SMC drops out:

http://www.midmajormadness.com/2014/12/29/7460321/mid-major-madness-power-15-gonzaga-wichita-state-portland-george-washington

[Guest]

....and the Pilots join GU and BYU in the Mid-Major Madness Top 15 after SMC drops out:

http://www.midmajormadness.com/2014/12/29/7460321/mid-major-madness-power-15-gonzaga-wichita-state-portland-george-washington

Wow! Nice little feather in the cap to be recognized. I'll admit that there's probably a few teams I'd have ahead of the Pilots in my own top 15 - SFA to name one - but sure nice to see them in there!

[NoPoNeighbor]

That is nice! Though I can't understand how Valpo is behind us...

[DoubleDipper]

Wow! Nice little feather in the cap to be recognized. I'll admit that there's probably a few teams I'd have ahead of the Pilots in my own top 15 - SFA to name one - but sure nice to see them in there!

If you mean the Lumberjacks from Stephen F. Austin, yeah they got some attention when they knocked-off Memphis and Long Beach St., but I would like to see a Pilots vs. SFA game on a neutral court. (If you're talking about St. Francis Academy in Baltimore, they're still good, but they are having comparatively off-year).  

Valpo....I think UP could now play them tighter than they did in Nashville, but you're correct, NPN, they looked really good against us.  Their blowout loss to New Mexico at home by 17 points kind of took the wind out of their sails, but the only Horizon League team better is Green Bay, so Valpo could easily end up with some post-season play.

[DoubleDipper]

UP @ BYU on BYUtv @ 6 (BYU by 11) BYU wins by 9, 97-88
PU @ LMU on ROOT @ 6 (PU by 1) PU wins by 13, 69-56
USF @ SMC on ESPNU @ 6 (SMC by 6) SMC wins by 13, 69-56
GU @ USD on ROOT @ 8 (GU by 7) GU wins by 12, 60-48 But USD went on a 15-2 run late to make it close!
SCU @ UOP streamed on W.tv @ 7 (UOP by 4) SCU wins by 17, 57-40

UP beats the spread!

[DoubleDipper]

USD holds GU to 60 points....their lowest point total of the year.

Maybe that "ugly" win by the Pilots over USD, 61-58, wasn't so bad after all.

[NoPoNeighbor]

A more legitimate mid-major poll: CollegeInsider's Mid-Major Top 25: http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php

This one is voted on by a panel of coaches. Where the Mid-Major Madness poll doesn't include either Valpo or SFA, they are ranked #4 and #6, respectively, in the CollegeInsider poll.

UP made it's first appearance of the season this week in the CollegeInsider poll, at #23.

[pilotdad1]

The GU game was hard to watch. I thought very sloppy and not much of a flow to the teams. It was great to see Chris Sarbaugh play a good game. He is another Gonzaga Prep grad and also was a walk on with GU. Having a good game against your home team is always gratifying.

[DoubleDipper]

At the end of Week One of WCC play, KenPom sees the national rankings like this:
#5 GU 2-0
#46 BYU 1-1
#85 SMC 2-0
#98 USD 0-2
#120 UP 1-1
#133 PU 1-0
#135 USF 1-1
#169 SCU 1-1
#255 UOP 0-2
#269 LMU 0-1

[NoPoNeighbor]

Realistically, we are probably in a battle for fourth place in the conference, along with USD, USF and Pepperdine. I expect that group of 4 (including UP), to mostly lose to the top 3, and mostly beat the bottom 3. That was the case through the first weekend. Our record against the rest of the middle-of-the-pack teams will be important. Last season, USF lost all of its games to the top 3, and beat everyone else, and went to the NIT.

Records for that Middle-4, against other Middle-4 teams:

UP: 1-0
USD: 0-1
USF: 0-0
Pepp: 0-0

[pilotdad1]

I love it! The great information and stats you both provide is invaluable, keep up the fantastic work!

I also think we end up fighting for the 4th spot. I think there are going to be some very competitive games with flashy finishes. Pacific, USF, and Pepperdine will provide some worthwhile entertainment at the Chiles Center. Lets get those stands filled and create some home cookin for the boys.

[DoubleDipper]

Records for that Middle-4, against other Middle-4 teams:
UP: 1-0
USD: 0-1
USF: 0-0
Pepp: 0-0

Three of the Mid-4 are playing on New Year's Day....(with Las Vegas/KenPom odds):
SMC @ PU (SMC by 1.5/PU by 1)
USD @ USF (USF by 3.5/USF by 1)

In "other" WCC games:
UOP @ LMU (LMU by 3.5/LMU by 3)
BYU @ SCU (BYU by 6/BYU by 5)

[Guest]

I'd add Santa Clara into that middle tier. Brownridge scares me, they've already got a conference road win, and I think they're good enough to split with a lot of teams in the WCC.

These teams in the middle tier will all have a good shot at SMC at home, too...UP included. Don't think the Gaels will finish much above this middle tier, if they do at all. Not so much a knock on SMC as a nod to the development of the rest of the conference.

[DoubleDipper]

I'd add Santa Clara into that middle tier. Brownridge scares me, they've already got a conference road win, and I think they're good enough to split with a lot of teams in the WCC.

Agreed!

I watched SCU against SMC in Moraga and they were in the game the entire way until Brad Waldow turned into a beast.

The Pilots must finish 6th or better going into the WCC Tournament.  Based upon the preseason and the beginning of league play, there are probably six, not four, teams that will fight for the 3-6 spots: UP, SMC, PU, SCU, USF, and USD.

If all goes to form, it will be BYU and GU fighting it out for #1 and LMU and UOP attempting to avoid #10.  The other six teams will be fighting to avoid a Friday night beginning in Las Vegas on March 6th.

But really, who knows?

[NoPoNeighbor]

Okay, I'm convinced. Let's expand the Mid-4 to the Mid-6. We'll say that a victory by any of these 6 against the top-2, or a loss against the bottom-2, is going to be unexpected and notable (neither has happened yet, out of 5 such games). Here's the current standings among the Mid-6, against other Mid-6 teams:

SMC: 2-0
UP: 1-0
Pepp: 0-0
USF: 0-1
SCU: 0-1
USD: 0-1

As previously noted, there are two "intra-Mid-6" match-ups tomorrow

[DoubleDipper]

ThreeFive of the Mid-4 Mid-6 are playing on New Year's Day....(with Las Vegas/KenPom odds):
SMC @ PU (SMC by 1.5/PU by 1)
USD @ USF (USF by 3.5/USF by 1)
BYU @ SCU (BYU by 6/BYU by 5)

In the "other" WCC game:
UOP @ LMU (LMU by 3.5/LMU by 3)

[DoubleDipper]

A good come from behind win by USD at USF this evening concluded a day when all four visitors won in the WCC….a trend the Pilots hope to stop on Saturday.

USD (1-2) 57 @ USF (1-2) 56  
SMC (3-0) 68 @ PU (1-1) 59
BYU (2-1) 81 @ SCU (1-2) 46……this was a blowout the entire way.
UOP (1-2) 77 @ LMU (0-2) 63

[Guest]

A good come from behind win by USD at USF this evening concluded a day when all four visitors won in the WCC….a trend the Pilots hope to stop on Saturday.

By my count, road teams are 10 - 3 in league play so far.  

DD can confirm, but I suspect 4 of 5 road teams will be the favorite in Saturday's games.

[DoubleDipper]

DD can confirm, but I suspect 4 of 5 road teams will be the favorite in Saturday's games.

Yup!

GU @ UP by 10
BYU @ USF by 5
SMC @ LUM by 8 (St. Mary's would go to 4-0 with a win....they've beaten PU, SCU, and USF)
USD @ SCU by 2
PU is expected to beat UOP at home by 8

[NoPoNeighbor]

Updated Intra-Mid-6 records:

SMC: 3-0
UP: 1-0
USD: 1-1
Pepp: 0-1
SCU: 0-1
USF: 0-2

The Mid-6 are currently 0-3 against the top-2, and 3-0 against the bottom-2.

[Guest]

Last season, USF lost all of its games to the top 3, and beat everyone else, and went to the NIT.

USF actually split with SMC last season, with their home win over the Gaels a critical part of a late six-game win streak. I doubt the Dons get into the NIT without that win.

Back to this season...Pilots up to #90 in the RPI. Would probably be in the high 70s if San Jose State wasn't dragging it down.

[dholcombe]

Looking over at realtimerpi. The teams we have lost to are 37-12 against D1 competition. We're not losing to bad teams...with the exception of maybe Oregon State.

[PilotNut]

Just think if we had held on to beat UNLV and OSU... Our RPI would be quite impressive.